Serbia vs Albania in key match in Group K

 

Group E

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Spain	16.8	+21	100%	99.97%	99.18%	99.83%
2	3	Turkey	9.7	-4	79%	79%	< 1%	25%
2	3	Georgia	6.1	-3	19%	19%	< 1%	4.3%
2	0	Bulgaria	2.3	-13	1.6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%

Group F

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Portugal	16.1	+15	100%	99.92%	98.3%	99.30%
2	1	Hungary	8.5	+2	83%	82%	1.5%	27%
2	1	Ireland	4.7	-5	10%	10%	< 1%	1.6%
2	3	Armenia	4.6	-13	8%	8%	< 1%	< 1%

Group I

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	Norway	20.7	+24	100%	99.93%	82%	89%
4	9	Italy	18.9	+13	98.0%	97.9%	18%	60%
5	9	Israel	12.3	+2	4.5%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Estonia	5.3	-12	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Moldova	1.7	-27	78%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%

 

Group K

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
5	15	England	22.3	+19	100%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.39%
4	7	Serbia	15.4	+5	86%	86%	1.5%	32%
5	8	Albania	11.8	+2	14%	14%	< 1%	2.4%
5	4	Latvia	6.5	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Andorra	1	-17

The four highest ranked teams below that miss Top-2 in their groups will advance to the playoff as NL group winners.

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.97%	99.18%	99.83%
A	Germany	100%	3.8%	96.2%	81%	92%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	99.92%	98.3%	99.30%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.97%	99.65%	99.88%
K	England	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.39%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.93%	82%	89%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	28%	47%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	2.1%	30%
H	Romania	100%	46%	54%	< 1%	24%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	67%	33%	< 1%	28%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	68%	32%	6%	19%
A	Northern Ireland	99.95%	71%	28%	5.0%	15%
I	Moldova	78%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	1.9%
H	San Marino	33%	33%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	98.0%	< 1%	97.9%	18%	60%
G	Netherlands	99.94%	< 1%	99.94%	97.2%	98.6%
C	Denmark	95.4%	< 1%	95.2%	66%	78%
L	Croatia	>99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	97.9%	98.8%
C	Scotland	89%	< 1%	88%	31%	48%
K	Serbia	86%	< 1%	86%	1.5%	32%
F	Hungary	83%	< 1%	82%	1.5%	27%
J	Belgium	96.3%	< 1%	95.4%	66%	78%
G	Poland	93%	< 1%	93%	2.8%	23%
I	Israel	4.5%	2.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%