Senegal can clinch qualifications

Senegal clinch qualification if they beat South Sudan and DR Congo fail to beat Togo. 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The four best runner-ups play knockout playoff round
to determine which team will play in intercontinental
playoff. 

Group B
Senegal clinch qualifications if they win against South Sudan and Togo draw (or win) against Democratic Republic of Congo (49%)
Senegal clinch playoff if they win against South Sudan and Togo draw (or win) against Democratic Republic of Congo (49%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	18	Senegal	23.4	+15	>99.99%	99.71%	96.0%	97.5%
8	16	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.7	+9	95%	70%	4.0%	12%
8	12	Sudan	14.5	+2	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	7	Togo	10.1	-4
8	6	Mauritania	7.2	-8
8	4	South Sudan	5.1	-15

Group C
South Africa clinch qualifications if they win against Zimbabwe and Rwanda draw (or win) against Benin (32%)
South Africa clinch playoff if they win against Zimbabwe and Rwanda draw (or win) against Benin (32%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	17	South Africa	21	+10	99.89%	97.7%	97.4%	97.4%
8	14	Benin	16	+3	48%	5%	1.7%	1.9%
8	11	Nigeria	15.1	+4	49%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	11	Rwanda	13	-1	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
8	6	Lesotho	7.9	-9
8	4	Zimbabwe	6.6	-6

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch qualifications if they win against Seychelles and Gambia win against Gabon (38%)
Ivory Coast clinch playoff if they win against Seychelles (91%)
Gabon clinch playoff if they win against Gambia (34%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	20	Ivory Coast	25	+20	100%	99.99%	90%	92%
8	19	Gabon	22.5	+11	100%	97.9%	10%	14%
8	10	Gambia	14	+5
9	12	Kenya	12.6	+6
9	10	Burundi	10.6	+1
8	0	Seychelles	0.5	-42

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	22	Tunisia	27	+17	100%	100%	100%	100%
9	15	Namibia	15.4	+4	50%	< 1%
9	14	Liberia	14.5	0	12%
8	10	Equatorial Guinea	14	-2	27%
8	10	Malawi	13	-1	11%
8	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	1.2	-19

 Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Ivory Coast	23.1	17	10%	10%	90%
F	Gabon	22.2	11	90%	88%	10%
I	Ghana	22	10	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
B	Senegal	20.9	11	4.0%	3.7%	96.0%
D	Cape Verde	20.6	4	13%	12%	87%
A	Burkina Faso	20.3	15	100%	89%	< 1%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.8	9	91%	66%	4.0%
D	Cameroon	19.6	12	87%	61%	13%
I	Madagascar	19.3	6	>99.99%	49%	< 1%
G	Uganda	18.4	4	96.9%	11%	< 1%
D	Libya	18	9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
G	Mozambique	18	2	3.1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.8	2	57%	8%	< 1%
B	Sudan	17.8	6	5%	< 1%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.7	6	2.5%	< 1%	97.4%
C	Benin	17.1	4	46%	3.7%	1.7%
E	Tanzania	16.9	4	18%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.7	5	24%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	16.7	3	12%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	16.4	6	48%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	16.4	3	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-2	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16	3	11%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	16	0	27%	< 1%
H	Namibia	15.8	5	50%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%