Iceland and Ukraine in crucial match

 

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots
 

Group A

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	3	Germany	13.1	+9	100%	96.8%	64%	84%
2	6	Slovakia	12.5	+4	89%	89%	33%	46%
2	3	Northern Ireland	7.5	-2	99.94%	15%	2.7%	12%
2	0	Luxembourg	1.6	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group B

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	Switzerland	12.4	+8	94%	94%	81%	85%
2	1	Sweden	7.4	-1	>99.99%	44%	10%	34%
2	1	Slovenia	7.3	-2	41%	41%	7%	15%
2	3	Kosovo	6.2	-6	21%	21%	2.7%	4.4%

Group D

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	6	France	16.5	+13	100%	99.96%	98.8%	99.61%
2	1	Ukraine	8.2	+1	68%	68%	< 1%	23%
2	3	Iceland	6.5	0	31%	31%	< 1%	3.9%
2	1	Azerbaijan	2.6	-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group J

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Belgium	19.2	+22	97.0%	96.4%	83%	89%
5	10	Wales	16.3	+10	100%	73%	12%	35%
5	11	North Macedonia	14.5	+8	>99.99%	31%	4.5%	17%
5	3	Kazakhstan	6.8	-8
5	0	Liechtenstein	0.3	-31

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.97%	99.17%	99.82%
A	Germany	100%	3.2%	96.8%	64%	84%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	99.92%	98.3%	99.27%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.96%	98.8%	99.61%
K	England	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.39%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.93%	82%	89%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	12%	35%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	2.1%	30%
H	Romania	100%	46%	54%	< 1%	24%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	56%	44%	10%	34%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	69%	31%	4.5%	17%
A	Northern Ireland	99.94%	85%	15%	2.7%	12%
I	Moldova	78%	78%	< 1%	< 1%	1.8%
H	San Marino	31%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	98.0%	< 1%	97.9%	18%	60%
G	Netherlands	99.94%	< 1%	99.93%	97.2%	98.6%
C	Denmark	95.4%	< 1%	95.2%	66%	78%
L	Croatia	>99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	97.9%	98.8%
C	Scotland	89%	< 1%	88%	31%	47%
K	Serbia	86%	< 1%	86%	1.5%	31%
F	Hungary	83%	< 1%	83%	1.6%	27%
J	Belgium	97.0%	< 1%	96.4%	83%	89%
G	Poland	93%	< 1%	93%	2.8%	23%
I	Israel	3.6%	1.4%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%