WC Qualifiers: Algeria nearly qualified

Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia have already clinched a place in the world cup finals. 

Tonight Algeria can clinch a place if they beat Somalia. Ivory Coast need to some help from Gambia to secure the world cup ticket.

Group F
Ivory Coast clinch qualifications if they win against Seychelles and Gambia win against Gabon (38%)
Ivory Coast clinch playoff if they win against Seychelles (91%)
Gabon clinch playoff if they win against Gambia (34%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	20	Ivory Coast	25	+20	100%	99.97%	90%	92%
8	19	Gabon	22.5	+11	100%	96.2%	10%	14%
8	10	Gambia	14	+5
8	10	Burundi	11.9	+2
8	9	Kenya	11	+5
8	0	Seychelles	0.5	-42

Group G
Algeria clinch qualifications if they win against Somalia (94%)
Algeria clinch playoff if they win against Somalia (94%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	19	Algeria	24.3	+17	99.94%	99.86%	99.62%	99.69%
8	15	Mozambique	19.2	-0	79%	33%	< 1%	2.0%
8	15	Uganda	16.6	+3	18%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
8	11	Guinea	14.3	+3	2.3%
8	9	Botswana	11.3	-4	< 1%
8	1	Somalia	1.4	-19

 

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	Top-2	At least Playoff	Group Winner	World Cup
8	22	Tunisia	27	+17	100%	100%	100%	100%
8	15	Namibia	16.6	+6	78%	5%	< 1%	< 1%
8	10	Equatorial Guinea	14	-2	12%
8	11	Liberia	13	-1	5%
8	10	Malawi	13	-1	5%
8	0	São Tomé and Príncipe	1.2	-19

Runners-up

		Average when 2nd		Probabilities
Group	Team	Point	GD	2nd	Playoff	1st
F	Ivory Coast	23.1	17	10%	10%	90%
F	Gabon	22.2	11	90%	86%	10%
I	Ghana	22	10	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
B	Senegal	20.9	11	4.0%	3.6%	96.0%
D	Cape Verde	20.6	4	13%	11%	87%
A	Burkina Faso	20.3	15	100%	86%	< 1%
B	Democratic Republic of Congo	19.8	9	91%	59%	4.0%
G	Algeria	19.8	10	< 1%	< 1%	99.62%
D	Cameroon	19.6	12	87%	56%	13%
G	Mozambique	19.6	0	79%	32%	< 1%
I	Madagascar	19.3	6	>99.99%	38%	< 1%
G	Uganda	18.5	5	18%	3.3%	< 1%
D	Libya	18	9	< 1%	< 1%
E	Niger	17.8	2	57%	7%	< 1%
B	Sudan	17.8	6	5%	< 1%	< 1%
C	South Africa	17.7	6	2.5%	< 1%	97.4%
C	Benin	17.1	4	46%	3.0%	1.8%
H	Namibia	17.1	7	78%	5%	< 1%
G	Guinea	16.9	6	2.3%	< 1%
E	Tanzania	16.9	4	18%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Zambia	16.7	5	24%	< 1%	< 1%
H	Liberia	16.6	3	5%	< 1%
C	Nigeria	16.4	6	48%	< 1%	< 1%
C	Rwanda	16.3	3	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
E	Eritrea	16.1	-3	< 1%	< 1%
H	Malawi	16	3	5%	< 1%
H	Equatorial Guinea	16	0	12%	< 1%
E	Congo	15.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%
G	Botswana	15	1	< 1%	< 1%