WC Qualifiers: Croatia can clinch at least playoff.

Croatia clinch at least playoff with a win against Czechia tonight. In Group G, Netherlands can clinch a playoff place if they beat Malta and Finland lose against Lithuania.

Group winner advance to the World Cup.
The 12 Runner-ups together with four best group winners
from Nations League play a playoff for the remaining four slots
 

Group C

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
2	4	Denmark	12.2	+8	90%	89%	60%	72%
2	4	Scotland	10.3	+4	66%	65%	25%	37%
2	3	Greece	9.2	+2	45%	45%	15%	26%
2	0	Belarus	1.8	-13	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

 

Group G
Netherlands clinch playoff if they win against Malta and Lithuania win against Finland (9%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	10	Netherlands	20.1	+21	99.81%	99.81%	95.4%	97.6%
5	10	Poland	15.6	+7	94%	94%	4.6%	24%
5	7	Finland	12.1	-1	6%	6%	< 1%	< 1%
5	3	Lithuania	4	-9	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	2	Malta	3.1	-17	< 1%	< 1%

Group H

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Austria	21.8	+18	99.90%	99.90%	98.5%	99.09%
5	12	Bosnia and Herzegovina	14.9	+5	63%	63%	1.3%	4.9%
5	7	Romania	13	+9	100%	37%	< 1%	24%
5	4	Cyprus	7.8	-3	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	San Marino	0.5	-30	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Group L
Croatia clinch playoff if they win against Czechia (42%)

			Average Simulation		Probabilities
m	p	Country	Point	GD	At least Playoff	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
4	12	Croatia	21.5	+26	>99.99%	>99.99%	89%	94%
5	12	Czechia	18.6	+12	100%	99.96%	11%	36%
5	6	Montenegro	10.9	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	6	Faroe Islands	7.4	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
5	0	Gibraltar	0.5	-27

Nations League Ranking

Group	Team	At least Playoff	NL Slot	Top-2	Group Winner	World Cup
E	Spain	100%	< 1%	99.97%	99.18%	99.82%
A	Germany	100%	3.2%	96.8%	64%	84%
F	Portugal	100%	< 1%	99.92%	98.3%	99.27%
D	France	100%	< 1%	99.96%	98.9%	99.61%
K	England	100%	< 1%	>99.99%	98.5%	99.38%
I	Norway	100%	< 1%	99.93%	82%	89%
J	Wales	100%	27%	73%	12%	34%
L	Czechia	100%	< 1%	99.96%	11%	36%
H	Romania	100%	63%	37%	< 1%	24%
B	Sweden	>99.99%	56%	44%	10%	34%
J	North Macedonia	>99.99%	69%	31%	4.5%	17%
A	Northern Ireland	99.91%	85%	15%	2.7%	12%
I	Moldova	70%	70%	< 1%	< 1%	1.6%
H	San Marino	24%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
I	Italy	98.0%	< 1%	97.9%	18%	59%
G	Netherlands	99.81%	< 1%	99.81%	95.4%	97.6%
C	Denmark	90%	< 1%	89%	60%	72%
L	Croatia	>99.99%	< 1%	>99.99%	89%	94%
C	Scotland	66%	< 1%	65%	25%	37%
K	Serbia	86%	< 1%	86%	1.5%	31%
F	Hungary	83%	< 1%	82%	1.6%	26%
J	Belgium	96.7%	< 1%	96.4%	83%	89%
G	Poland	94%	< 1%	94%	4.6%	24%
I	Israel	2.8%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%