PL: Man City turn Anfield upside down

Man City go from 3% chance to 8% chance in a few minutes with two late goals at Anfield. It means they in practice still have the title in their own hands. They can maximally reach 89 points and if they do that they win the title in 97% of the simulations. Aston Villa can maximally reach 86 points and if they do that they win 70% of the simulations. In the table below you can see how the chances decrease with fewer points.

In the CL race, Premier League will most likely (>99.5%) get five slots, and the trio Chelsea, Man United, and Liverpool are fighting over the remaining two slots.

In midweek, Everton and Bournemouth are playing a 6-point game in the race for a ticket to Europe.

In the relegation battle, West Ham have gained some hope (24%) after 9 points in the last five matches (3p more than expected). Forest  are three points ahead and relegated in 13% of simulations, and also Leeds (6%), Tottenham (2.4%), and Sunderland (2.3%) are not out of danger. In the table at the bottom, you can see how the probabilities varies depending on how many points a team manage to take.

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
West Ham vs Man United (4.2%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
West Ham	35%	22%	17%
Forest	82%	88%	90%
Leeds	92%	95%	96.0%
Tottenham	96.5%	97.9%	98.4%
Sunderland	96.7%	98.0%	98.4%
Forest vs Wolves (2.3%)	Home Win (62%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (18%)
Forest	91%	83%	78%
West Ham	22%	27%	30%

	Burnley			West Ham			Forest			Leeds			Tottenham			Sunderland			Crystal Palace
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
54	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	3.2%	1.3%	100%	7%	2.4%	100%	9%	2.8%	100%	13%	4.2%	100%
53	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.5%	< 1%	100%	5.0%	1.8%	100%	10%	3.2%	100%	12%	3.8%	100%	19%	5%	100%
52	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.6%	1.1%	100%	8%	2.7%	100%	14%	4.4%	100%	17%	4.8%	100%	25%	7%	100%
51	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	4.2%	1.6%	100%	11%	3.7%	100%	20%	5%	100%	23%	6%	100%	33%	8%	100%
50	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	6%	2.2%	100%	16%	4.6%	100%	26%	6%	100%	30%	7%	100%	41%	8%	100%
49	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	10%	3.3%	100%	22%	6%	100%	34%	8%	100%	38%	8%	100%	50%	9%	100%
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	14%	4.3%	100%	29%	7%	>99.99%	42%	8%	100%	46%	8%	100%	59%	9%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	1.2%	< 1%	99.9%	19%	5%	>99.99%	37%	8%	100%	50%	9%	100%	55%	9%	>99.99%	67%	8%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	2.1%	< 1%	99.7%	26%	7%	99.97%	45%	9%	99.99%	59%	9%	>99.99%	63%	9%	99.98%	75%	8%	99.99%
45	< 1%	< 1%	99%	3.5%	1.4%	98%	33%	7%	99.9%	54%	9%	99.9%	67%	8%	99.97%	71%	8%	99.9%	82%	7%	99.95%
44	< 1%	< 1%	97%	5%	2.0%	95%	41%	8%	99.5%	63%	9%	99.6%	75%	8%	99.8%	79%	7%	99.5%	87%	5%	99.7%
43	< 1%	< 1%	92%	8%	2.9%	88%	50%	9%	98.2%	71%	8%	98.6%	81%	7%	99.4%	85%	6%	98.5%	92%	4.4%	99.0%
42	< 1%	< 1%	82%	12%	3.9%	77%	59%	9%	95.9%	78%	7%	96.6%	87%	5%	98.0%	90%	4.9%	96.3%	95%	3.2%	97.1%
41	< 1%	< 1%	69%	17%	4.9%	63%	67%	8%	92%	85%	6%	93%	91%	4.3%	95%	94%	3.8%	92%	96.9%	2.1%	93%
40	< 1%	< 1%	50%	23%	6%	48%	75%	8%	86%	90%	5.0%	87%	94%	3.2%	91%	96.2%	2.7%	86%	98.3%	1.4%	87%
39	1.6%	< 1%	36%	31%	7%	35%	82%	7%	78%	93%	3.7%	78%	96.5%	2.3%	84%	97.9%	1.7%	78%	99.12%	< 1%	77%
38	2.6%	1.0%	23%	39%	8%	23%	87%	5%	68%	95.9%	2.6%	67%	98.0%	1.5%	75%	99.0%	1.1%	67%	99.58%	< 1%	66%
37	4.2%	1.5%	13%	48%	9%	15%	91%	4.4%	58%	97.7%	1.8%	56%	98.9%	< 1%	65%	99.56%	< 1%	55%	99.83%	< 1%	53%
36	6%	2.1%	7%	57%	9%	9%	95%	3.2%	46%	98.8%	1.1%	43%	99.45%	< 1%	53%	99.83%	< 1%	44%	99.94%	< 1%	36%
35	9%	3.1%	3.0%	66%	9%	4.7%	96.7%	2.2%	36%	99.42%	< 1%	31%	99.75%	< 1%	43%	99.95%	< 1%	31%	99.98%	< 1%	28%
34	13%	4.0%	1.4%	74%	8%	2.4%	98.2%	1.5%	26%	99.75%	< 1%	22%	99.90%	< 1%	30%	>99.99%	< 1%	24%	>99.99%	< 1%	21%
33	18%	5%	< 1%	81%	7%	1.1%	99.07%	< 1%	17%	99.91%	< 1%	13%	99.97%	< 1%	22%	100%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-
32	25%	6%	< 1%	87%	6%	< 1%	99.56%	< 1%	11%	99.97%	< 1%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	15%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
31	32%	7%	< 1%	92%	4.7%	< 1%	99.82%	< 1%	6%	>99.99%	< 1%	2%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
30	40%	8%	< 1%	95.2%	3.3%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	3%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
29	49%	9%	< 1%	97.3%	2.1%	< 1%	99.98%	< 1%	2%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
28	58%	9%	< 1%	98.7%	1.3%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
27	66%	9%	< 1%	99.43%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
26	74%	8%	< 1%	99.78%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
25	81%	7%	< 1%	99.93%	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is succesful, if they finish with X points