CL: And so they were twelve

 

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Paris SG (100%)
		Paris SG (58%) Liverpool (36%)
Liverpool (67%) Galatasaray (33%)
				Bayern (35%) Paris SG (27%) Real Madrid (19%) Liverpool (18%)
Real Madrid (100%)
		Bayern (61%) Real Madrid (39%)
Bayern (100%)
						Arsenal (40%) Bayern (17%) Paris SG (12%) Liverpool (8%)
Barcelona (69%) Newcastle (31%)
		Barcelona (45%) Atletico (35%) Newcastle (18%)
Atletico (93%)
				Arsenal (63%) Barcelona (16%) Sporting (8%)
Sporting (100%)
		Arsenal (81%) Sporting (19%)
Arsenal (100%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.72%	18.84	15.17	22.89
ESP	67%	15.97	12.56	19.88
GER	15%	14.67	12.14	19.14
POR	14%	14.52	12.4	19.6
POL	4.2%	14.35	13.75	18.38
ITA	< 1%	13.66	12.71	16.5
GRE	< 1%	12.46	11	15.9
FRA	< 1%	12.41	10.25	16.06

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 296 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.6%	18%	36%	31%	12%	1.5%
Chance if	< 1%	19%	61%	90%	98.9%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 215 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	34%	48%	17%	1.7%
Chance if	< 1%	8%	51%	91%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 179 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	18%	45%	30%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	4.2%	27%	68%

Number of finalists from ESP; 172 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	31%	43%	21%	4.5%
Chance if	36%	71%	92%	99.1%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 154 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	< 1%	10%	35%	41%	13%
Chance if	6%	23%	53%	81%	93%

Number of finalists from POR; 142 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	71%	26%	3.0%
Chance if	4.4%	30%	85%

Number of finalists from GER; 139 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	45%	42%	11%	1.0%
Chance if	2.9%	16%	52%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 103 mbit

n	1	2	3
Probability	10%	58%	32%
Chance if	< 1%	6%	33%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 95 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	91%	9%
Chance if	< 1%	36%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 82 mbit

n	1	2	3	4
Probability	6%	42%	45%	7%
Chance if	< 1%	5%	21%	47%