Europa and Conference League: R16 1st Leg

England and Spain are likely winning the extra CL spots. Germany challenges but will need at least two semifinalists or possible three.

Europa League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Ferencvaros (62%) Braga (38%)
		Betis (48%) Braga (19%) Panathinaikos (18%)
Betis (63%) Panathinaikos (37%)
				Lyon (30%) Betis (26%) Celta (11%) Freiburg (11%)
Freiburg (51%) Genk (49%)
		Lyon (47%) Freiburg (21%) Celta (20%)
Lyon (68%) Celta (32%)
						Aston Villa (40%) Lyon (12%) Betis (10%) Porto (9%)
Porto (83%)
		Porto (48%) Midtjylland (28%) Forest (14%)
Midtjylland (73%) Forest (27%)
				Aston Villa (55%) Porto (16%) Roma (13%)
Roma (73%) Bologna (27%)
		Aston Villa (70%) Roma (22%)
Aston Villa (94%)

 

Conference League

Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Shakhtar (94%)
		Shakhtar (44%) Alkmaar (28%) Sparta Praha (26%)
Alkmaar (55%) Sparta Praha (45%)
				Crystal Palace (47%) Fiorentina (20%) Shakhtar (11%)
Crystal Palace (73%) Larnaca (27%)
		Crystal Palace (55%) Fiorentina (30%)
Fiorentina (74%) Rakow (26%)
						Crystal Palace (31%) Strasbourg (20%) Fiorentina (10%) Rayo Vallecano (9%)
Rayo Vallecano (98%)
		AEK (50%) Rayo Vallecano (49%)
AEK (100%)
				Strasbourg (39%) Rayo Vallecano (21%) AEK (21%) Mainz (19%)
Mainz (86%)
		Strasbourg (62%) Mainz (36%)
Strasbourg (96%)

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	99.68%	19.14	14.78	24
ESP	63%	15.75	12.13	19.88
GER	23%	14.83	12.29	20.5
POR	7%	13.85	11.7	19.4
POL	6%	14.35	13.75	18.38
ITA	1.1%	13.66	12.71	16.29
GRE	< 1%	12.46	11	15.9
FRA	< 1%	12.2	9.81	15.94

Number of semifinalists from ESP; 303 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	2.8%	19%	37%	30%	11%	1.3%
Chance if	< 1%	17%	58%	88%	98.6%	99.9%

Number of semifinalists from GER; 234 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	17%	43%	31%	9%	< 1%
Chance if	< 1%	8%	39%	78%	97%

Number of finalists from GER; 174 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	44%	42%	12%	1.3%
Chance if	6%	26%	67%	97%

Number of finalists from ESP; 167 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	30%	43%	22%	4.6%
Chance if	33%	66%	89%	98.4%

Number of quarterfinalists from ESP; 163 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	2.0%	13%	36%	38%	11%
Chance if	5%	24%	54%	79%	92%

Number of semifinalists from POR; 150 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	40%	49%	11%
Chance if	< 1%	3.7%	47%

Number of quarterfinalists from GER; 112 mbit

n	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	4.9%	37%	44%	13%	1.1%
Chance if	< 1%	8%	28%	54%	76%

Number of semifinalists from POL; 105 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	91%	9%
Chance if	1.8%	43%

Number of finalists from POR; 93 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	76%	22%	1.7%
Chance if	2.0%	19%	80%

Number of quarterfinalists from POR; 93 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	9%	51%	36%	4.9%
Chance if	< 1%	< 1%	14%	38%