PL: Man United nearly (>99.8%) clinched CL spot

Man United need to take two more points to clinch a place in CL mathematically. Brentford are struggling to reach Europe with a current estimated probability of 40%. They need to take 7 points in the remaining four matches to have 50% chance to reach Europe, and they need to take 8 points to have a 50% chance to reach Europa League. It's certainly tight in the Europe zone with seven teams within 4 points.

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.2	+15	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.81%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.82%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.99%	99.83%	97.9%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	98.9%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.97%	99.69%	97.5%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	2.5%	97.5%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	69%	46%	3.1%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	55%	13%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	36%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	30%	4.3%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	40%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	60%	4.3%
48	Brentford	53.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	1.5%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	15%	1.5%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	14%	1.3%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.7%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	21%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.4%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	55%	68%	88%
Bournemouth	38%	35%	29%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (8.6%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	48%	24%	15%
Brighton	64%	71%	73%
Everton vs Man City (7%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Everton	29%	11%	6%
Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	28%	10%	4.9%