PL: Man City vs Chelsea in FA cup final

Chelsea are missing Top-7 in 63% of the simulations, which means if they win the FA cup , it's quite likely that they have not already qualified to EL and that the 7th team in PL is going to Conference League rather than EL.

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.1	+15	< 1%	99.99%	99.86%	98.7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	97.7%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.95%	99.58%	97.1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	2.8%	97.1%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	67%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	53%	12%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	33%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	28%	3.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	37%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	59%	3.8%
48	Brentford	54.1	+4	< 1%	30%	14%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	26%	3.3%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	13%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	1.1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.4%	2.3%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	76%			44%
Man City	24%	64%	100%
Aston Villa				46%
Chelsea		36%
Crystal Palace				52%
Forest				20%