PL: Bottom teams win

Spurs, Hammers, and Forest all won in the relegation race. In the simulations teams probably need 39-42 points to be safe and stay up. Next Spurs travel to Villa Park, while West Ham go to Brentford for a London derby.

In the top, Arsenal won with one-nil. On average they finish 2.7 points ahead of City. They win the remaining four matches and finish on 85 points in 20% of the simulations and when they do that they win the league in 98%. City on the other hand, win all remaining matches in 4% of the simulations and when they do that, they win the league in 91%. In other words, in the simulations the two top leams have it very much in their own hands.  

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
58	Man United	66.1	+15	< 1%	99.99%	99.86%	98.7%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.7%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	99.98%	99.78%	97.7%	56%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	98.8%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.95%	99.58%	97.1%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	97.1%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	67%	44%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%	17%	51%	12%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	33%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	27%	3.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	37%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	47%	3.8%
48	Brentford	54.1	+4	< 1%	30%	14%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	19%	25%	3.3%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	13%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	14%	4.6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	12%	1.1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.3%	2.2%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	53%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
40	Leeds	45.9	-6	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	61%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	23.6	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Fulham (8%)	Home Win (74%)	Draw (15%)	Away Win (10%)
Arsenal	82%	63%	52%
Man City	18%	37%	48%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	20%	20%	98.0%	4.0%	4.0%	91%
84	20%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	41%	22%	91%	13%	9%	71%
82	61%	20%	82%	23%	10%	49%
81	69%	9%	73%	30%	7%	36%
80	84%	15%	60%	47%	17%	24%
79	92%	8%	45%	60%	13%	12%
78	95.6%	3.5%	33%	70%	10%	7%
77	98.5%	2.9%	22%	83%	12%	3.3%
76	99.54%	1.0%	13%	90%	7%	1.1%
75	99.83%	< 1%	7%	94%	4.5%	< 1%
74	99.97%	< 1%	3%	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	1%	99.02%	1.4%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Newcastle vs Brighton (9.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	49%	63%	84%
Bournemouth	34%	31%	26%
Brentford	31%	28%	23%
Man United vs Brentford (8.3%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	18%	28%	51%
Brighton	66%	63%	56%
Bournemouth	33%	30%	25%
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (7.9%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	43%	21%	13%
Brighton	60%	66%	68%
Brentford vs West Ham (7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	38%	18%	10%
Brighton	60%	66%	68%
Chelsea vs Forest (5.5%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	62%	42%	35%
Brighton	61%	65%	67%
Brentford	26%	30%	32%
Bournemouth	28%	33%	34%

 

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace (10.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Bournemouth	65%	38%	26%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.8%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Brentford	61%	34%	23%
Man United vs Brentford (9.1%)	Home Win (55%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (23%)
Brentford	35%	49%	73%
Bournemouth	53%	49%	43%
Everton	28%	25%	20%
Newcastle vs Brighton (7.6%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	70%	82%	95%
Newcastle	2.4%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea vs Forest (7.3%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (24%)
Chelsea	78%	56%	46%

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (9.7%)	Home Win (66%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	31%	42%	68%
West Ham	71%	61%	39%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.6%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	55%	66%	87%
Tottenham	47%	37%	19%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest			Leeds
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
48	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	100%	11%	7%	100%	24%	5%	100%
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	3.4%	100%	42%	17%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	1.5%	99.9%	28%	14%	100%	58%	16%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.8%	99.97%	44%	15%	>99.99%	67%	10%	>99.99%
44	2.3%	1.8%	99.4%	8%	2.0%	99.5%	53%	9%	99.98%	82%	15%	99.92%
43	7%	4.7%	97.2%	17%	10%	96.1%	72%	18%	99.83%	92%	9%	99.1%
42	9%	2.3%	90%	30%	13%	93%	85%	13%	98.8%	95.3%	3.7%	97.9%
41	21%	11%	76%	39%	8%	82%	90%	6%	96.4%	98.8%	3.5%	88%
40	36%	15%	64%	58%	20%	66%	97.1%	7%	90%	100%	1.2%	65%
39	44%	9%	43%	76%	17%	56%	100%	2.9%	76%	100%	< 1%	-
38	64%	20%	24%	83%	8%	37%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
37	80%	16%	17%	94%	11%	20%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	6%	100%	6%	13%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.6%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.4%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points