Friday, April 24, 2026

PL: Forest out of the woods

Forest thrashed Sunderland and the relegation battle is thereby a head-to-head bnattle between Hammers and Spurs. All their remaining matches are important but Tottenham's trip up to already relegated Wolverhampton is an opportunity.

Below are the stats for the three upcoming matches and their chances given how manu points they finish on.  

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Wolves vs Tottenham (11%)Home Win (42%)Draw (24%)Away Win (34%)
Tottenham24%33%55%
West Ham76%68%47%
West Ham vs Everton (10.7%)Home Win (41%)Draw (24%)Away Win (35%)
West Ham79%60%49%
Tottenham23%41%51%
Brentford vs West Ham (7.5%)Home Win (57%)Draw (21%)Away Win (21%)
West Ham56%66%83%
Tottenham44%35%19%



TottenhamWest Ham
pointsQProbabilityChanceQProbabilityChance
46< 1%< 1%100%< 1%< 1%100%
45< 1%< 1%-2.6%1.7%99.9%
44< 1%< 1%99.7%3.8%1.2%99.8%
432.8%1.8%98.8%9%5%98.5%
424.0%1.2%94%16%7%97.0%
4110%6%87%23%6%92%
4017%8%79%37%15%83%
3924%7%63%51%14%76%
3839%15%49%62%11%61%
3753%14%38%77%15%48%
3663%11%23%87%10%37%
3578%15%12%93%5%21%
3488%10%7%98.0%5%12%
3393%5%2.0%100%2.0%7%
3298.1%4.9%< 1%100%< 1%-
31100%1.9%< 1%100%< 1%-
30100%< 1%-100%< 1%-
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 Coming Matches

Home
Draw
Away
Fulham38%24%38%Aston Villa
Liverpool62%20%18%Crystal Palace
West Ham41%24%35%Everton
Wolves42%24%34%Tottenham
Arsenal72%16%12%Newcastle
Man United55%22%23%Brentford
Leeds63%20%17%Burnley
Brentford57%21%21%West Ham
Newcastle46%24%30%Brighton
Wolves46%24%30%Sunderland


Most likely combo of teams in CL
61%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
18%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
5.0%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Man City, Man United
1.8%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.7%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.6%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.2%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.1%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Man City, Man United
1.1%Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Man City, Man United

Most likely combo of teams being relegated
63%Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves
36%Burnley, West Ham, Wolves

No comments:

Post a Comment