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Man City with an early winner against Burnley meaning they go top of the table with same points and goal difference as Arsenal, but three more goals. Next in the title race is Arsenal hosting the Magpies, and as you can see in the table below there is a 30% swing between a win and a loss, so obviously a crucial match. In the simulations, Man City drop on average 5.9 points while Arsenal drop 3.9 points, but these simulations do not take into account that some of the opponents may be unmotivated or that title contenders might get nervous.
Bournemouth dropped the win in the last minute losing two points in the race for Europa. They still get 24% to get to EL.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Arsenal vs Newcastle (8%) | Home Win (72%) | Draw (16%) | Away Win (12%) |
| Arsenal | 77% | 59% | 47% |
| Man City | 23% | 41% | 53% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 14% | 14% | 98.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 91% |
| 84 | 14% | < 1% | - | 4.0% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 33% | 19% | 93% | 13% | 9% | 74% |
| 82 | 49% | 16% | 84% | 23% | 10% | 57% |
| 81 | 59% | 10% | 74% | 30% | 7% | 45% |
| 80 | 75% | 17% | 63% | 47% | 17% | 31% |
| 79 | 85% | 9% | 48% | 60% | 13% | 19% |
| 78 | 91% | 6% | 35% | 70% | 10% | 12% |
| 77 | 95.8% | 5% | 25% | 83% | 12% | 6% |
| 76 | 98.0% | 2.2% | 15% | 90% | 7% | 3.0% |
| 75 | 99.12% | 1.1% | 9% | 94% | 4.5% | 1.4% |
| 74 | 99.73% | < 1% | 5% | 97.6% | 3.5% | < 1% |
| 73 | 99.92% | < 1% | 2% | 99.03% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 72 | 99.98% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.63% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 71 | >99.99% | < 1% | < 1% | 99.93% | < 1% | < 1% |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Newcastle vs Brighton (10.2%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Brighton | 44% | 58% | 81% |
| Newcastle | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Bournemouth | 30% | 27% | 22% |
| Man United vs Brentford (7.8%) | Home Win (55%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (23%) |
| Brentford | 15% | 25% | 47% |
| Brighton | 62% | 59% | 52% |
| Bournemouth | 29% | 26% | 22% |
| West Ham vs Everton (7.2%) | Home Win (41%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (35%) |
| Everton | 12% | 19% | 40% |
| Brighton | 62% | 60% | 54% |
| Brentford vs West Ham (6.5%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Brentford | 34% | 15% | 9% |
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