PL: Aston Villa Europa League Champions potentially giving PL and extra spot in CL

Aston Villa won EL and if they fail to finish top-4 i PL, it means that PL will be allocated an extra CL spot. 

Villa finish 5th if City beat them and Liverpool beat Brentford. The we have the following scenarios: Brighton take the 6th CL spot if they beat Man United and Bournemouth lose against Forest; otherwise Bournemouth take it. Sunderland take the 2nd EL spot if they beat Chelsea; otherwise Chelsea take it. Chelsea are virtuall guaranteed at least Conference League, and Brentford and possibly Newcastle have the chance to snap the Conference League spot, if Sunderland fail to beat Chelsea.

If Villa instead finish 4th, we have the following scenarios. CL is done and taken by the top-5 and Bournemouth will play EL (unless Liverpool are thrashed by Brentford). Brighton take the second EL spot if they win against Man United. If they draw, Chelsea and Brentford, and even Sunderland have chance to take the EL spot.

Most likely combo of teams in CL

65%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
28%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United

 

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Arsenal

83.9

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Man City

80.0

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Man United

69.2

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Aston Villa

62.8

+5

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

59

Liverpool

61.0

+11

< 1%

100%

100%

99.91%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.91%

56

Bournemouth

57.2

+4

< 1%

100%

80%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

72%

28%

53

Brighton

54.6

+9

< 1%

59%

20%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

20%

65%

7%

52

Chelsea

53.5

+7

< 1%

26%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34%

40%

< 1%

52

Brentford

52.8

+3

< 1%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30%

6%

< 1%

51

Sunderland

52.2

-7

< 1%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

12%

17%

< 1%

49

Fulham

50.6

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Everton

50.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Newcastle

50.2

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.9%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leeds

48.2

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

45.9

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

64%

< 1%

43

Forest

44.6

-3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Tottenham

39.5

-10

15%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

West Ham

37.6

-22

85%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

22.6

-37

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

19

Wolves

20.1

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Brentford (32.4%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Bournemouth	48%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City vs Aston Villa (31.2%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Bournemouth	47%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton	12%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (11.3%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Brighton	16%	< 1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	19%	35%	35%
Forest vs Bournemouth (11.2%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Brighton	16%	< 1%	< 1%
Bournemouth	20%	35%	35%

	Bournemouth			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
59	30%	30%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-
58	30%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
57	54%	24%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-
56	100%	46%	20%	44%	44%	16%
55	100%	< 1%	-	44%	< 1%	-
54	100%	< 1%	-	68%	24%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	32%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Sunderland vs Chelsea (75.5%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Chelsea	< 1%	42%	71%
Sunderland	49%	< 1%	< 1%
Brentford	11%	11%	< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (47.1%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Brighton	100%	61%	41%
Chelsea	23%	51%	56%
Brentford	< 1%	12%	12%
Sunderland	12%	12%	27%
Liverpool vs Brentford (38.1%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Brentford	< 1%	< 1%	32%
Brighton	85%	62%	44%
Sunderland	24%	11%	< 1%
Chelsea	51%	27%	24%
Man City vs Aston Villa (10.6%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Brighton	81%	59%	59%
Chelsea	50%	26%	26%
Sunderland	22%	8%	9%

	Brighton			Crystal Palace			Chelsea			Sunderland			Brentford
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
56	44%	44%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	44%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	42%	42%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	20%	20%	32%
54	68%	24%	61%	< 1%	< 1%	-	42%	< 1%	-	33%	33%	49%	20%	< 1%	-
53	100%	32%	41%	< 1%	< 1%	-	67%	24%	42%	33%	< 1%	-	41%	21%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	33%	< 1%	58%	24%	< 1%	100%	59%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	42%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
50	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL)
Sunderland vs Chelsea (110.4%)	Home Win (33%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Sunderland	86%	< 1%	< 1%
Chelsea	35%	83%	99.96%
Liverpool vs Brentford (62%)	Home Win (59%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (20%)
Brentford	34%	< 1%	81%
Brighton	100%	99.6%	62%
Chelsea	86%	67%	46%
Sunderland	33%	33%	11%
Newcastle	5.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Man City vs Aston Villa (15.1%)	Home Win (60%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (19%)
Brentford	50%	16%	16%
Chelsea	82%	62%	62%
Newcastle	4.9%	< 1%	< 1%
Brighton vs Man United (8.8%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Brighton	100%	92%	82%
Brentford	32%	41%	41%
Fulham vs Newcastle (7.5%)	Home Win (46%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (30%)
Newcastle	< 1%	< 1%	10%
Brentford	39%	40%	30%

	Brighton			Chelsea			Crystal Palace			Brentford			Sunderland			Newcastle
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
56	44%	44%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
55	44%	< 1%	-	42%	42%	99.96%	< 1%	< 1%	-	20%	20%	81%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
54	68%	24%	92%	42%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	20%	< 1%	-	33%	33%	86%	< 1%	< 1%	-
53	100%	32%	82%	67%	24%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	41%	21%	< 1%	33%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	33%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	59%	34%	58%	24%	< 1%	30%	30%	10%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	42%	< 1%	30%	< 1%	-
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	54%	24%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	46%	< 1%
48	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	23%	23%	64%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Tottenham vs Everton (55.3%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
West Ham	< 1%	< 1%	45%
Tottenham	100%	100%	55%
West Ham vs Leeds (38.6%)	Home Win (45%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (31%)
West Ham	33%	< 1%	< 1%
Tottenham	67%	100%	100%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
41	< 1%	< 1%	-	43%	43%	100%
40	< 1%	< 1%	-	43%	< 1%	-
39	45%	45%	33%	67%	24%	100%
38	45%	< 1%	-	100%	33%	55%
37	69%	24%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	31%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points