PL: Arsenal Champions

Bournemouth and City drew 1-1 which means Arsenal are champions with one match to go. It also means that Bournemouth will bring European football to Vitaly stadium next season; remain to be decided if it'll be Champions or Europa League.

West Ham need to beat Leeds at home and hope that Everton beat Tottenham. That scenario happens in 15% of our simulations.

Five teams (or technically six including Liverpool) fight over the remaining tickets to European football. Much depends on the outcome of the EL final, but we know that Brighton can secure EL with a win against Man U, and secure Conference League if Liverpool beat Brentford; Sunderland need to beat Chelsea to have a chance.

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

82

Arsenal

83.9

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

78

Man City

80.0

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Man United

69.2

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Aston Villa

62.8

+5

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

59

Liverpool

61.0

+11

< 1%

100%

100%

99.91%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

99.91%

56

Bournemouth

57.2

+4

< 1%

100%

80%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

81%

19%

53

Brighton

54.6

+9

< 1%

59%

20%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

63%

4.9%

52

Chelsea

53.5

+7

< 1%

26%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

34%

36%

< 1%

52

Brentford

52.8

+3

< 1%

6%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

24%

6%

< 1%

51

Sunderland

52.2

-7

< 1%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

15%

14%

< 1%

49

Fulham

50.6

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Everton

50.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Newcastle

50.2

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

2.0%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leeds

48.2

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

45.9

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

64%

< 1%

43

Forest

44.6

-3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Tottenham

39.5

-10

15%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

West Ham

37.6

-22

85%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

22.6

-37

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

19

Wolves

20.1

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

Most likely combo of teams in CL

76%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
19%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United