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Must win match for Man City to stay in the title race. For Spurs, a point would practically secure the new contract as they have significantly better goal difference than West Ham. A point would clinch at Europa League for Bournemouth; with a loss they have still good chances (92%). A win would clinch them the 6th position and the chance to CL, depending on how Villa do. Chelsea need to win to stay with a realistic chance to bring Europa League to Stamford Bridge.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| Bournemouth vs Man City (31.2%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Arsenal | 100% | 100% | 73% |
| Man City | < 1% | < 1% | 27% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 55% | 55% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 84 | 55% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 77% | 22% | 77% | 23% | 23% | 45% |
| 82 | 100% | 23% | 77% | 23% | < 1% | - |
| 81 | 100% | < 1% | - | 46% | 23% | < 1% |
| 80 | 100% | < 1% | - | 76% | 29% | < 1% |
| 79 | 100% | < 1% | - | 81% | 5% | < 1% |
| 78 | 100% | < 1% | - | 93% | 12% | < 1% |
| 77 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | 7% | < 1% |
| 76 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (14.3%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| West Ham | 15% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Tottenham | 85% | 100% | 100% |
| West Ham | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 44 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 9% | 9% | 100% |
| 43 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 9% | < 1% | - |
| 42 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 24% | 14% | 100% |
| 41 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 55% | 32% | 100% |
| 40 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 61% | 5% | 100% |
| 39 | 45% | 45% | 19% | 81% | 21% | >99.99% |
| 38 | 45% | < 1% | - | 100% | 19% | 55% |
| 37 | 69% | 24% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 36 | 100% | 31% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
Important matches for CL race | |||
| Bournemouth vs Man City (14.1%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Liverpool | 87% | 99.91% | 100% |
| Bournemouth | 37% | 19% | 15% |
| Brighton | < 1% | 4.9% | 8% |
| Chelsea | < 1% | < 1% | 1.5% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (11.3%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Chelsea | 40% | 16% | 10% |
| Brighton | 66% | 78% | 83% |
| Brentford | 8% | 18% | 18% |
| Bournemouth vs Man City (4.8%) | Home Win (36%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (39%) |
| Bournemouth | 100% | 100% | 92% |
| Brentford | 11% | 10% | 15% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Chelsea vs Tottenham (21.4%) | Home Win (57%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (21%) |
| Chelsea | 71% | 36% | 25% |
| Brentford | 31% | 54% | 63% |
| Brighton | 92% | 95.9% | 97.8% |
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