PL: Arsenal host Burnley

Arsenal host Burnley and if they win the league title is 90% theirs. West Ham lost up in Newcastle and now all three remaining matches have to go their way in the relegation battle: Tottenham lose against Chelsea and Everton, while West Ham beat Leeds at home. That happens roughly in one of twelve simulations. Bournemouth, Brentford, Brighton, Everton, and Sunderland are fighting over the three tickets to Europe, which possible might become four if Arsenal win on Wednesday and finish 5th.

 

Important matches for title race
Arsenal vs Burnley (12.6%)	Home Win (85%)	Draw (10%)	Away Win (5%)
Man City	10%	40%	48%
Arsenal	90%	60%	52%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	47%	47%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-
84	47%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
83	71%	24%	79%	23%	23%	50%
82	93%	22%	77%	23%	< 1%	-
81	95.6%	2.2%	54%	46%	23%	7%
80	98.9%	3.3%	25%	76%	29%	4.4%
79	100%	1.1%	20%	81%	5%	1.2%
78	100%	< 1%	-	93%	12%	< 1%
77	100%	< 1%	-	100%	7%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Average Simulated Season

Probabilities

Pts

Team

Pts

GD

Relegated

Top 7

Top 6

Top 5

Top 4

Win League

ECL

EL

CL

79

Arsenal

83.5

+45

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

85%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

77

Man City

80.4

+44

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

15%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

68

Man United

69.2

+16

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

62

Aston Villa

62.8

+5

< 1%

100%

100%

100%

65%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

100%

59

Liverpool

61.0

+11

< 1%

100%

100%

95.4%

35%

< 1%

< 1%

4.6%

95.4%

55

Bournemouth

57.5

+4

< 1%

96.4%

79%

4.6%

< 1%

< 1%

2.7%

73%

24%

53

Brighton

54.6

+9

< 1%

65%

17%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

22%

68%

4.1%

52

Brentford

52.8

+3

< 1%

10%

1.5%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

30%

12%

< 1%

49

Chelsea

52.4

+7

< 1%

20%

2.4%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

25%

28%

< 1%

51

Sunderland

52.2

-7

< 1%

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

15%

14%

< 1%

49

Fulham

50.6

-6

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Everton

50.2

-2

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

49

Newcastle

50.2

-0

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

3.0%

< 1%

< 1%

47

Leeds

48.2

-4

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

45

Crystal Palace

45.9

-11

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

64%

< 1%

43

Forest

44.6

-3

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

38

Tottenham

40.4

-10

8%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

36

West Ham

37.6

-22

92%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

21

Burnley

22.9

-38

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

19

Wolves

20.1

-41

100%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%

< 1%