PL: The Hammers visit the Magpies

Important match when West Ham visit Newcastle today. If West Ham win, the relegation battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations. If it's a draw, the chances are unchanged and if Newcastle win, Tottenham are 92% safe.

Brighton visit Leeds and they need to win to have a chance on the 6th place, which might mean CL next season. In the EL race, Brentford need to win against Crystal Palace to keep the hope up. 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Newcastle vs West Ham (21.5%)	Home Win (58%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	8%	18%	49%
Tottenham	92%	82%	51%

	West Ham			Tottenham
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
44	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	9%	100%
43	< 1%	< 1%	-	9%	< 1%	-
42	9%	9%	76%	24%	14%	100%
41	9%	< 1%	-	55%	32%	91%
40	24%	14%	39%	61%	5%	91%
39	56%	32%	19%	81%	21%	76%
38	61%	5%	< 1%	100%	19%	44%
37	82%	21%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	18%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for CL race
Leeds vs Brighton (7.9%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	4.1%	6%	23%
Liverpool	95.4%	95.3%	87%
Bournemouth	24%	23%	14%

	Liverpool			Bournemouth			Brighton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
62	59%	59%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	59%	< 1%	-	11%	11%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	80%	21%	89%	11%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	100%	20%	76%	27%	16%	21%	15%	15%	39%
58	100%	< 1%	-	56%	29%	21%	15%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	62%	6%	16%	33%	19%	11%
56	100%	< 1%	-	82%	20%	9%	63%	30%	9%
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	18%	4.7%	68%	6%	3.8%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	86%	18%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	14%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for EL race (EL or CL)
Brentford vs Crystal Palace (22.1%)	Home Win (54%)	Draw (23%)	Away Win (24%)
Brentford	42%	9%	1.7%
Brighton	72%	83%	85%
Fulham	< 1%	3.8%	4.1%
Chelsea	13%	22%	22%
Leeds vs Brighton (17%)	Home Win (43%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (33%)
Brighton	61%	81%	97.8%
Brentford	33%	22%	17%
Chelsea	21%	17%	11%
Everton vs Sunderland (7.5%)	Home Win (63%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Everton	14%	1.6%	< 1%
Sunderland	< 1%	< 1%	4.8%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
79	Arsenal	83.5	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	85%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
77	Man City	80.4	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
65	Man United	68.1	+16	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
62	Aston Villa	62.8	+5	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	65%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
59	Liverpool	61.0	+11	< 1%	100%	99.67%	93%	35%	< 1%	< 1%	7%	93%
55	Bournemouth	57.5	+4	< 1%	91%	62%	4.7%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	72%	20%
53	Brighton	55.8	+10	< 1%	75%	32%	2.6%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	67%	11%
51	Brentford	53.6	+4	< 1%	17%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	33%	25%	< 1%
49	Chelsea	52.4	+7	< 1%	11%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	22%	17%	< 1%
49	Everton	52.3	+1	< 1%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	9%	< 1%
48	Fulham	51.1	-6	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
48	Sunderland	50.0	-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%
46	Newcastle	49.1	-1	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Leeds	46.7	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
44	Crystal Palace	45.8	-11	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Forest	45.5	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
38	Tottenham	40.4	-10	19%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
36	West Ham	38.4	-21	81%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	Burnley	22.9	-38	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	20.4	-42	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%