Which league gets the extra CL spot

Premier League get one of the extra CL spots. The other one goes to Portugal, Spain or Germany and it's an extremely race. Portugal and Spain need to have a team in the finals to have a chance, which means that Portugal need that Braga win their tie against Freiburg, while Spain need that Rayo Vallecano win advance past Strasbourg. Germany's chances are slim but not zero if Freiburg are knocked out tonight against Braga.

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	20.01	19.78	20.06
POR	34%	15.49	15.2	15.8
ESP	34%	15.63	15.5	15.81
GER	32%	15.58	15.36	15.79

Number of finalists from GER; 431 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	61%	39%
Chance if	4.1%	75%

Number of finalists from ESP; 369 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	43%	57%
Chance if	< 1%	60%

Number of finalists from POR; 328 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	39%	61%
Chance if	< 1%	56%