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City came back after 1-3 deficit and scored in the last minute to save an important point in title race. City now win 13% of the simulations; they win 60% if they win remaining matches, 22% if they take 10 points in the last four matches.
Forest won against Chelsea and are thus practically secure from relegation. Mathematically they need four more points to clinch a new contract.
Everton lost two points in the race to Europe and now have 23% chance to reach EL or Conference League. They likely need to take 6 or 7 points to reach that ticket to Europe.
| Important matches for title race | |||
| West Ham vs Arsenal (10.7%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (60%) |
| Man City | 29% | 18% | 6% |
| Arsenal | 71% | 82% | 94% |
| Man City vs Brentford (7%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Arsenal | 82% | 95% | 97.3% |
| Man City | 18% | 5% | 2.7% |
| Arsenal | Man City | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 85 | 28% | 28% | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 84 | 28% | < 1% | - | < 1% | < 1% | - |
| 83 | 52% | 24% | 95.1% | 10% | 10% | 60% |
| 82 | 75% | 22% | 90% | 10% | < 1% | - |
| 81 | 81% | 6% | 82% | 26% | 16% | 22% |
| 80 | 92% | 11% | 66% | 43% | 17% | 14% |
| 79 | 97.8% | 5% | 51% | 52% | 9% | 6% |
| 78 | 98.9% | 1.1% | 37% | 70% | 19% | 1.8% |
| 77 | 99.78% | < 1% | 22% | 82% | 12% | < 1% |
| 76 | 100% | < 1% | 13% | 88% | 6% | < 1% |
| 75 | 100% | < 1% | - | 95.2% | 7% | < 1% |
| 74 | 100% | < 1% | - | 98.1% | 2.9% | < 1% |
| 73 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.13% | 1.1% | < 1% |
| 72 | 100% | < 1% | - | 99.82% | < 1% | < 1% |
Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for avoiding relegation | |||
| Tottenham vs Leeds (15.5%) | Home Win (46%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Tottenham | 91% | 71% | 61% |
| West Ham | 10% | 29% | 39% |
| West Ham vs Arsenal (13.7%) | Home Win (19%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (60%) |
| West Ham | 50% | 22% | 15% |
| Tottenham | 51% | 78% | 85% |
| West Ham | Tottenham | |||||
| points | Q | Probability | Chance | Q | Probability | Chance |
| 46 | < 1% | < 1% | - | 4.2% | 4.2% | 100% |
| 45 | 1.8% | 1.8% | 98.9% | 4.2% | < 1% | - |
| 44 | 1.8% | < 1% | - | 13% | 9% | 99.4% |
| 43 | 7% | 4.8% | 73% | 30% | 17% | 98.8% |
| 42 | 18% | 12% | 64% | 36% | 6% | 94% |
| 41 | 22% | 4.0% | 42% | 58% | 22% | 82% |
| 40 | 42% | 19% | 23% | 77% | 19% | 77% |
| 39 | 66% | 24% | 16% | 84% | 7% | 58% |
| 38 | 73% | 7% | 6% | 94% | 11% | 34% |
| 37 | 89% | 16% | < 1% | 100% | 6% | 27% |
| 36 | 100% | 11% | < 1% | 100% | < 1% | - |
| 35 | 100% | < 1% | - | 100% | < 1% | - |
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points
| Important matches for CL race | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (6.6%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 4.4% | 8% | 20% |
| Fulham | 2.5% | < 1% | < 1% |
| Aston Villa | 98.3% | 97.5% | 93% |
| Brighton | 10% | 10% | 6% |
| Burnley vs Aston Villa (4.4%) | Home Win (26%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (51%) |
| Aston Villa | 91% | 96.2% | 99.52% |
| Bournemouth | 16% | 11% | 8% |
| Brighton | 12% | 9% | 6% |
| Brentford | 6% | 4.5% | 3.2% |
| Important matches for EL race (EL or CL) | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (23.2%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 37% | 55% | 84% |
| Fulham | 26% | 7% | < 1% |
| Man City vs Brentford (11.3%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Brentford | 26% | 44% | 72% |
| Bournemouth | 60% | 55% | 46% |
| Brighton | 57% | 52% | 43% |
| Brighton vs Wolves (11.1%) | Home Win (68%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Brighton | 65% | 36% | 21% |
| Brentford | 34% | 42% | 47% |
| Bournemouth | 53% | 62% | 65% |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton (8.8%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Everton | 2.5% | 9% | 27% |
| Important matches for Europe race (ECL, EL or CL) | |||
| Fulham vs Bournemouth (26.1%) | Home Win (43%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (33%) |
| Bournemouth | 57% | 77% | 96.4% |
| Fulham | 44% | 16% | 5% |
| Crystal Palace vs Everton (13.3%) | Home Win (47%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (30%) |
| Everton | 9% | 21% | 49% |
| Brighton vs Wolves (11.6%) | Home Win (68%) | Draw (18%) | Away Win (14%) |
| Brighton | 84% | 58% | 40% |
| Brentford | 58% | 64% | 69% |
| Man City vs Brentford (9.8%) | Home Win (64%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Brentford | 50% | 68% | 91% |
| Brighton | 76% | 72% | 67% |
| Liverpool vs Chelsea (5.7%) | Home Win (58%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Chelsea | 49% | 57% | 78% |
| Brentford | 63% | 60% | 53% |
| Everton | 25% | 23% | 18% |
| Brighton | 76% | 73% | 69% |
| Average Simulated Season | Probabilities | |||||||||||
| Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Relegated | Top 7 | Top 6 | Top 5 | Top 4 | Win League | ECL | EL | CL |
| 76 | Arsenal | 82.5 | +45 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 87% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 71 | Man City | 78.7 | +41 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 13% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 64 | Man United | 68.8 | +16 | < 1% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 99.88% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 100% |
| 58 | Liverpool | 63.2 | +14 | < 1% | >99.99% | 99.84% | 98.3% | 68% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.7% | 98.3% |
| 58 | Aston Villa | 62.1 | +4 | < 1% | 99.99% | 99.60% | 95% | 32% | < 1% | < 1% | 3.4% | 96.5% |
| 52 | Bournemouth | 55.7 | +2 | < 1% | 61% | 36% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | 18% | 46% | 10% |
| 50 | Brighton | 55.0 | +8 | < 1% | 58% | 32% | 2.0% | < 1% | < 1% | 20% | 45% | 9% |
| 51 | Brentford | 54.3 | +6 | < 1% | 40% | 18% | 1.2% | < 1% | < 1% | 23% | 33% | 4.2% |
| 48 | Fulham | 52.6 | -4 | < 1% | 13% | 5% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 12% | 1.1% |
| 48 | Everton | 52.4 | +0 | < 1% | 11% | 3.7% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 12% | 11% | < 1% |
| 48 | Chelsea | 52.3 | +6 | < 1% | 15% | 5.0% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 10% | 46% | < 1% |
| 47 | Sunderland | 50.0 | -11 | < 1% | 1.4% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 2.8% | 1.4% | < 1% |
| 45 | Newcastle | 49.2 | -2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 1.9% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 43 | Crystal Palace | 47.1 | -9 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 62% | < 1% |
| 43 | Leeds | 46.9 | -5 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 42 | Forest | 46.2 | -2 | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | 35% |
| 37 | Tottenham | 41.0 | -9 | 23% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 36 | West Ham | 39.2 | -21 | 77% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 20 | Burnley | 22.9 | -39 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
| 18 | Wolves | 21.0 | -40 | 100% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% | < 1% |
Most likely combo of teams in CL
| 41% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 33% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 8% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 7% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 3.2% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Aston Villa, Fulham, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.1% | Arsenal, Bournemouth, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
| 1.0% | Arsenal, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United |
Most likely combo of teams being relegated
| 77% | Burnley, West Ham, Wolves |
| 23% | Burnley, Tottenham, Wolves |
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