PL: Spurs win crucial 3 points at Villa Park

 West Ham are now relegated in 72% of simulations. They need to take 5 points in the last three matches to have >50% chance to survive. If they win all three matches they are still relegated in 0.6% of the simulations. Spurs need to take 2 points to have >50% to survive. If they take 6 points they survive in >99% of the simulations, as further detailed in table below.

Liverpool lost in the big red rivalry and are therefore yet to secure a spot in CL. They clinch CL in 97% of the simulations and another 4 points and they are 100% safe.

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Forest vs Newcastle (2.4%)	Home Win (47%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (29%)
Forest	99.75%	97.2%	93%

	West Ham			Tottenham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.4%	3.4%	100%	28%	14%	100%
45	2.0%	2.0%	99.4%	3.4%	< 1%	-	44%	16%	100%
44	2.0%	< 1%	-	11%	8%	99.6%	53%	9%	99.96%
43	7%	5%	81%	27%	16%	99.1%	72%	18%	99.8%
42	19%	12%	73%	32%	5%	95%	85%	13%	97.8%
41	24%	4.2%	51%	54%	21%	83%	90%	6%	92%
40	43%	20%	28%	74%	21%	78%	97.1%	7%	85%
39	67%	24%	19%	81%	7%	58%	100%	2.9%	66%
38	74%	7%	7%	93%	12%	33%	100%	< 1%	-
37	90%	16%	< 1%	100%	7%	26%	100%	< 1%	-
36	100%	10%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
35	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

 

Important matches for CL race
Liverpool vs Chelsea (6.7%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (22%)	Away Win (21%)
Liverpool	99.96%	97.4%	90%
Chelsea	3.0%	4.0%	14%
Fulham vs Bournemouth (6%)	Home Win (44%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (32%)
Bournemouth	3.7%	7%	19%
Fulham	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
Aston Villa	98.0%	97.5%	94%

	Liverpool			Aston Villa			Forest			Bournemouth			Brighton			Chelsea			Brentford			Everton
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
67	10%	10%	100%	5%	5%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
66	10%	< 1%	-	5%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
65	26%	16%	100%	16%	10%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
64	49%	23%	100%	35%	20%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
63	56%	7%	100%	41%	6%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
62	76%	20%	100%	63%	22%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
61	89%	13%	99.6%	81%	18%	97.7%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	3.7%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-
60	93%	4.1%	94%	87%	6%	95.3%	< 1%	< 1%	-	3.7%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.9%	2.9%	51%	1.7%	1.7%	49%	< 1%	< 1%	-
59	98.1%	4.9%	75%	95.8%	9%	83%	< 1%	< 1%	-	12%	8%	28%	10%	10%	34%	2.9%	< 1%	-	1.7%	< 1%	-	2.2%	2.2%	27%
58	100%	1.9%	40%	100%	4.2%	71%	< 1%	< 1%	-	26%	14%	20%	10%	< 1%	-	10%	7%	19%	6%	4.5%	17%	2.2%	< 1%	-
57	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	32%	6%	11%	26%	16%	13%	22%	12%	13%	19%	12%	9%	8%	6%	8%
56	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	52%	21%	6%	48%	22%	8%	28%	6%	6%	22%	3.8%	5%	17%	9%	3.9%
55	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	72%	20%	2.4%	56%	7%	3.7%	47%	19%	3.1%	42%	20%	1.9%	22%	5%	1.4%
54	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	79%	7%	< 1%	75%	20%	< 1%	63%	16%	< 1%	69%	26%	< 1%	39%	17%	< 1%
53	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	92%	13%	< 1%	89%	14%	< 1%	72%	9%	< 1%	75%	7%	< 1%	55%	16%	< 1%
52	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	100%	8%	< 1%	93%	4.0%	< 1%	86%	14%	< 1%	90%	15%	< 1%	65%	10%	< 1%
51	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	1.0%	29%	100%	< 1%	-	98.2%	4.8%	< 1%	93%	8%	< 1%	100%	10%	< 1%	81%	16%	< 1%
50	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	1.0%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	1.8%	< 1%	96.4%	3.0%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	91%	10%	< 1%
49	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	4.2%	3.1%	30%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	99.13%	2.7%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	95%	4.0%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Most likely combo of teams in CL

44%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
27%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Forest, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
4.0%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
2.6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brentford, Liverpool, Man City, Man United
1.3%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Everton, Liverpool, Man City, Man United