PL: Arsenal with 6p lead

Arsenal with 6p lead with two more matches played. Pressure on Man City with two upcoming matches against Everton and Brentford as detailed below.

In the relegation battle West Ham lost against Brentford. If Spurs draw Villa today, the battle is a fifty-fifty race according to our simulations.

The race to Europe continue to look like a full-on race with half a dozen contenders. 

 

Important matches for title race
Everton vs Man City (10.3%)	Home Win (34%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (42%)
Arsenal	93%	87%	71%
Man City	7%	13%	29%
Man City vs Brentford (7.2%)	Home Win (64%)	Draw (20%)	Away Win (17%)
Arsenal	76%	90%	95%
Man City	24%	10%	5%

	Arsenal			Man City
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
85	26%	26%	98.2%	4.0%	4.0%	85%
84	26%	< 1%	-	4.0%	< 1%	-
83	50%	24%	92%	13%	9%	61%
82	73%	23%	83%	23%	10%	38%
81	79%	7%	74%	30%	7%	24%
80	91%	12%	62%	47%	17%	14%
79	97.4%	6%	46%	60%	13%	5%
78	98.7%	1.3%	34%	70%	10%	2.0%
77	99.73%	1.0%	23%	83%	12%	< 1%
76	100%	< 1%	14%	90%	7%	< 1%
75	100%	< 1%	-	94%	4.5%	< 1%
74	100%	< 1%	-	97.6%	3.5%	< 1%
73	100%	< 1%	-	99.02%	1.4%	< 1%
72	100%	< 1%	-	99.62%	< 1%	< 1%

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (10.1%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	38%	50%	75%
West Ham	63%	51%	28%

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	< 1%	-	28%	14%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	2.0%	2.0%	99.9%	44%	15%	100%
44	2.4%	1.8%	99.5%	2.0%	< 1%	-	53%	10%	>99.99%
43	7%	4.8%	99.1%	7%	5%	95%	72%	18%	99.94%
42	9%	2.3%	94%	19%	12%	92%	85%	13%	99.4%
41	21%	11%	83%	24%	4.2%	82%	90%	6%	97.1%
40	36%	15%	78%	43%	20%	66%	97.1%	7%	94%
39	44%	9%	57%	67%	24%	56%	100%	2.9%	82%
38	64%	20%	33%	74%	7%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
37	80%	16%	26%	90%	15%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	10%	100%	10%	14%	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.5%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
76	Arsenal	82.4	+45	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	82%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.3	+15	< 1%	100%	100%	>99.99%	91%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	>99.99%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	>99.99%	99.91%	99.0%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.35%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.79%	98.5%	58%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	98.5%
50	Brighton	55.1	+9	< 1%	54%	31%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	47%	6%
49	Bournemouth	54.5	+0	< 1%	38%	20%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	32%	4.1%
51	Brentford	54.3	+5	< 1%	34%	15%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	23%	30%	2.7%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	43%	23%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	61%	4.3%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	13%	14%	1.2%
48	Fulham	52.6	-4	< 1%	12%	4.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	11%	11%	< 1%
47	Sunderland	50.1	-11	< 1%	1.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	1.4%	< 1%
45	Newcastle	49.2	-2	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.8	-5	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%
36	West Ham	39.3	-20	45%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.5	-12	54%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
18	Wolves	21.1	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%