PL: Leeds almost safe from from relegation

Leeds now have 9 points down to Tottenham and need another 4 points to be mathematically safe or if they win against Tottenham next Monday. In most simulations 39-40 points are required to stay safe.

	Tottenham			West Ham			Forest
points	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance	Q	Probability	Chance
47	< 1%	< 1%	-	< 1%	< 1%	-	14%	3.4%	100%
46	< 1%	< 1%	100%	1.9%	1.5%	100%	28%	14%	100%
45	< 1%	< 1%	-	6%	3.7%	99.9%	44%	16%	>99.99%
44	2.3%	1.8%	99%	8%	2.0%	99%	53%	10%	99.9%
43	7%	4.7%	97%	17%	10%	95%	72%	19%	99.8%
42	9%	2.3%	87%	30%	13%	92%	85%	13%	99%
41	21%	11%	74%	39%	8%	82%	90%	6%	96%
40	35%	15%	63%	59%	20%	65%	97.2%	7%	89%
39	44%	9%	42%	76%	17%	56%	100%	2.8%	76%
38	64%	20%	24%	83%	7%	36%	100%	< 1%	-
37	79%	16%	17%	94%	11%	20%	100%	< 1%	-
36	86%	7%	5%	100%	6%	14%	100%	< 1%	-
35	95.5%	9%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
34	100%	4.5%	< 1%	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-
33	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-	100%	< 1%	-

Q: Probability team finish with X points (or more)
Probability: Probability team finish with X points
Chance: Probability team is successful, if they finish with X points

 

Important matches for avoiding relegation
Aston Villa vs Tottenham (9.7%)	Home Win (65%)	Draw (19%)	Away Win (16%)
Tottenham	30%	41%	66%
West Ham	71%	61%	39%
Forest	98.8%	98%	95%
Brentford vs West Ham (9.5%)	Home Win (57%)	Draw (21%)	Away Win (21%)
West Ham	55%	66%	86%
Tottenham	46%	36%	18%

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
73	Arsenal	81.8	+44	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
70	Man City	79.1	+41	< 1%	100%	100%	100%	100%	24%	< 1%	< 1%	100%
61	Man United	67.3	+15	< 1%	100%	>99.99%	99.8%	90%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	99.8%
58	Aston Villa	64.5	+6	< 1%	>99.99%	99.8%	97.9%	52%	< 1%	< 1%	1.4%	98.6%
58	Liverpool	64.3	+14	< 1%	99.98%	99.7%	97.5%	57%	< 1%	< 1%	2.4%	97.6%
50	Brighton	56.2	+10	< 1%	69%	46%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	16%	57%	11%
49	Bournemouth	54.6	+0	< 1%	36%	17%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	20%	30%	3.3%
48	Chelsea	54.2	+9	< 1%	39%	18%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	60%	3.4%
48	Brentford	53.2	+3	< 1%	20%	7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	18%	1.2%
48	Fulham	53.1	-3	< 1%	16%	6%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	15%	14%	1.2%
47	Everton	52.7	+0	< 1%	15%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	14%	13%	< 1%
46	Sunderland	50.3	-11	< 1%	2.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	3.8%	2.6%	< 1%
43	Crystal Palace	48.2	-7	< 1%	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	64%	< 1%
42	Newcastle	47.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
43	Leeds	46.8	-4	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
39	Forest	44.0	-5	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	30%
36	West Ham	40.1	-18	36%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	Tottenham	38.4	-12	62%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
20	Burnley	22.9	-40	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	Wolves	21.7	-39	100%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%