Europa and Conference League: Crystal Palace almost clinch a place in the final

Europa League

Advantage Braga after 2-1 at home and fifty-fifty when Forest travel to Villa Park next week

Final		Champions
Braga (60%) Freiburg (40%)
		Aston Villa (35%) Forest (30%) Braga (21%) Freiburg (14%)
Aston Villa (50%) Forest (50%)

 

Conference League

Palace almost in the final after a two-goal win away, while it;s a close contest in the other semi.  

Final		Champions
Crystal Palace (98%)
		Crystal Palace (63%) Strasbourg (19%)
Rayo Vallecano (53%) Strasbourg (47%)

 

Which countries get extra CL spots

Germany and Spain almost secure the extra CL spot if they have both their teams to the finals. Germany have Bayern and Freiburg, while Spain have Atletico and Rayo Vallecano.  

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
ENG	100%	19.94	19.39	20.06
GER	43%	15.72	15.21	16.14
ESP	34%	15.7	15.5	16.25
POR	22%	15.48	15.2	15.8

Number of finalists from GER; 377 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	33%	49%	18%
Chance if	4.0%	49%	96.6%

Number of finalists from ESP; 328 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	38%	52%	10%
Chance if	< 1%	48%	88%

Number of finalists from POR; 197 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	40%	60%
Chance if	< 1%	37%

Number of tournament winners for GER; 86 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	66%	31%	3.4%
Chance if	32%	61%	95%

Number of tournament winners for ESP; 56 mbit

n	0	1	2
Probability	77%	21%	1.1%
Chance if	27%	56%	89%

Number of tournament winners for POR; 23 mbit

n	0	1
Probability	79%	21%
Chance if	18%	38%