Decider for Uruguay against Spain

In Group I, Senegal have to beat Iraq to have a chance and preferably with a couple of goals. Meanwhile, Iraq have to win against Senegal to advance. 

Uruguay must take a point against Spain to survive. Cape Verde are out if they lose against Saudi, while Saudi have to win to have a chance.

In Group G, Iran need a point against Egypt to advance. Belgium need a point against New Zealand, while New Zealand have to win. 

 

Of the countries placed third, Scotland have 10%, South Korea 65%, and others with 4 points have 100%. 

 

Group G				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Egypt	2	+2	4	5.15		32%	21%	48%	>99.99%
Iran	2	0	2	3.62	4.0%	47%	19%	30%	69%
Belgium	2	0	2	4.24	12%	13%	52%	23%	86%
New Zealand	2	-2	1	1.59	84%	8%	7%		14%

Egypt

Egypt - Iran
Home	Draw	Away
100%	100%	>99.99%	Bel - New
100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	Home
100%	100%	100%	100%	Draw
100%	100%	100%	100%	Away

Iran

Egypt - Iran
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
	94%	95.2%	96.2%	97%	100%	Bel - New
	94%	94%	95%	96%	100%	68%	Home
	97%	99.0%	99.8%	100%	100%	69%	Draw
	94%	94%	95%	97%	100%	68%	Away

Belgium

Belgium - New Zealand
Home	Draw	Away
100%	96.2%		Egy - Ira
100%	100%		86%	Home
100%	95%		86%	Draw
100%	94%		85%	Away

New Zealand

Belgium - New Zealand
Home	Draw	Away
		100%	Egy - Ira
		100%	14%	Home
		100%	14%	Draw
		100%	14%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament

• Belgium have 0.92% if they draw (or win) against New Zealand; otherwise 0%

Group H				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Spain	2	+4	4	6.22		5%	9%	86%	100%
Uruguay	2	0	2	2.6	16%	67%	6%	12%	31%
Cape Verde	2	0	2	3.32	26%	21%	51%	2.5%	59%
Saudi Arabia	2	-4	1	2.44	59%	7%	34%		40%

Uruguay

Spain - Uruguay
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
	92%	94%	95%	95%	100%	Cap - Sau
	91%	92%	93%	94%	100%	31%	Home
	95%	98.4%	99.7%	100%	100%	32%	Draw
	91%	92%	93%	94%	100%	31%	Away

Cape Verde

Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia
Home	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	Away
100%	96.6%	97.3%	98.1%	98.7%		Spa - Uru
100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		60%	Home
100%	90%	92%	96%	98%		58%	Draw
100%	89%	91%	92%	93%		58%	Away

Saudi Arabia

Cape Verde - Saudi Arabia
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
		99.7%	100%	100%	100%	Spa - Uru
		100%	100%	100%	100%	40%	Home
		100%	100%	100%	100%	40%	Draw
		97.9%	100%	100%	100%	40%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament

• Uruguay have 1.6% if they draw (or win) against Spain; otherwise 0%

Group I				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
France	2	+5	6	7.92			21%	79%	100%
Norway	2	+4	6	6.86			79%	21%	100%
Senegal	2	-3	0	2.21	14%	86%			51%
Iraq	2	-6	0	0.61	86%	14%			0.67%

Senegal

Senegal - Iraq
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
95.5%	95.5%	86%	43%			Fra - Nor
95%	95.5%	86%	43%			51%	Home
96%	95%	86%	44%			51%	Draw
96%	95%	86%	43%			51%	Away

Iraq

Senegal - Iraq
Home	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
		0.9%	3.0%	37%	44%	Fra - Nor
		0.9%	3%	36%	45%	0.7%	Home
		0.9%	3%	37%	42%	0.7%	Draw
		0.8%	3%	36%	42%	0.7%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament

• 2.59; Senegal have 0.68% if they win against Iraq; otherwise 0%

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team? Pts GD Probability Last 32 Chance 4 - 50% 50% 99.95% 3 0 6% 5% 94% 3 5-6 1.1% 0.89% 85% 3 4-5 0.59% 0.47% 79% 3 2-3 8% 5% 65% 3 5-7 0.96% 0.42% 44% 3 4-6 1.2% 0.49% 42% 3 3-5 0.51% 0.19% 37% 3 3-6 0.99% 0.29% 29% 3 2-5 0.69% 0.19% 28% 3 1-4 8% 0.87% 10% 2 - 10% 1 - 1.5% Group B point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Switzerland 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Canada 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Bosnia and Herzegovina 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Qatar 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group E point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Germany 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Ivory Coast 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Ecuador 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Curaçao 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group F point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Netherlands 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Japan 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Sweden 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Tunisia 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group D point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% United States 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Australia 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Paraguay 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 100% 100% Turkey 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group L point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 0.8% 1.9% 2.2% 0.8% 93% 3rd & Last 32 96% 0.3% 1% 1.2% 0.5% 93% England 3rd 0.3% 0.3% 3rd & Last 32 0.3% 0.3% Ghana 3rd 80% 80% 3rd & Last 32 80% 80% Croatia 3rd 19% 0.8% 1.9% 2.2% 0.8% 12% 3rd & Last 32 16% 0.3% 1% 1.2% 0.5% 12% Panama 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group G point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 30% 32% 38% 3rd & Last 32 68% 30% 38% Egypt 3rd 32% 32% 3rd & Last 32 32% 32% Iran 3rd 47% 26% 21% 3rd & Last 32 19% 19% Belgium 3rd 13% 1.8% 11% 3rd & Last 32 11% 11% New Zealand 3rd 8.4% 2.2% 6.2% 3rd & Last 32 6.2% 6.2% Group A point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 65% 65% Mexico 3rd 3rd & Last 32 South Africa 3rd 3rd & Last 32 South Korea 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 65% 65% Czechia 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group I point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 18% 8.7% 9.9% 10% 13% 3rd & Last 32 51% 3.7% 4.3% 8.5% 13% France 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Norway 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Senegal 3rd 86% 18% 8.7% 9.7% 10% 13% 3rd & Last 32 51% 3.7% 4.2% 8.5% 13% Iraq 3rd 14% 0.1% < 0.1% 3rd & Last 32 0.7% < 0.1% < 0.1% Group J point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 8.3% 11% 4.1% 3.1% 0.9% 7.1% 2.7% 24% 3rd & Last 32 47% 2.3% 3.1% 1.2% 1% 0.3% 5.7% 2.2% 24% Argentina 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Austria 3rd 29% 1.8% 4.1% 3.1% 0.9% 7.1% 2.7% 3rd & Last 32 17% 0.5% 1.2% 1% 0.3% 5.7% 2.2% Algeria 3rd 71% 8.3% 9.4% 24% 3rd & Last 32 30% 2.3% 2.6% 24% Jordan 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Group K point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 24% < 0.1% 30% 3rd & Last 32 32% < 0.1% 30% Colombia 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Portugal 3rd 0.3% 0.3% 3rd & Last 32 0.3% 0.3% DR Congo 3rd 54% 24% 30% 3rd & Last 32 30% 30% Uzbekistan 3rd 46% < 0.1% 3rd & Last 32 1.4% < 0.1% Group H point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 68% 22% 11% 3rd & Last 32 30% 20% 11% Spain 3rd 5% 5% 3rd & Last 32 5% 5% Uruguay 3rd 67% 52% 15% 3rd & Last 32 14% 14% Cape Verde 3rd 21% 14% 6.8% 3rd & Last 32 6.2% 6.2% Saudi Arabia 3rd 7% 1.4% 5.6% 3rd & Last 32 5.6% 5.6% Group C point 1 2 3 4 GD - - 1-4 2-5 3-6 3-5 4-6 5-7 2-3 4-5 5-6 0 - 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 10% 10% Brazil 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Morocco 3rd 3rd & Last 32 Scotland 3rd 100% 100% 3rd & Last 32 10% 10% Haiti 3rd 3rd & Last 32

 

Last 32		Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Germany (100%)
		Germany (61%) Paraguay (39%)
Paraguay (99%)
				France (49%) Germany (25%) Paraguay (13%)
France (79%) Norway (21%)
		France (68%) Sweden (17%)
Sweden (99%)
						France (36%) Netherlands (21%) Germany (15%) Canada (11%)
South Africa (100%)
		Canada (78%) South Africa (22%)
Canada (100%)
				Netherlands (44%) Canada (36%) Morocco (17%)
Netherlands (100%)
		Netherlands (66%) Morocco (34%)
Morocco (100%)
								Spain (34%) France (20%) Netherlands (9%) Germany (6%)
Portugal (61%) Colombia (39%)
		Portugal (36%) Croatia (24%) Colombia (23%) England (16%)
Croatia (56%) England (29%) Ghana (16%)
				Spain (53%) Portugal (14%) Colombia (9%)
Spain (86%)
		Spain (74%) Austria (14%)
Austria (71%) Algeria (29%)
						Spain (47%) United States (10%) Portugal (10%)
United States (100%)
		United States (76%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (24%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (100%)
				United States (42%) South Korea (16%) Belgium (8%) Egypt (8%)
Egypt (48%) Iran (30%) Belgium (23%)
		South Korea (33%) Egypt (19%) Iran (14%) Belgium (14%)
South Korea (65%) Algeria (10%)
										Spain (25%) Argentina (21%) France (14%) England (6%)
Brazil (100%)
		Brazil (60%) Japan (40%)
Japan (100%)
				Brazil (36%) Norway (27%) Japan (20%) France (12%)
Ivory Coast (100%)
		Norway (60%) Ivory Coast (21%) France (19%)
Norway (79%) France (21%)
						England (20%) Brazil (20%) Norway (13%) Ecuador (12%) Japan (9%)
Mexico (100%)
		Mexico (45%) Ecuador (43%)
Ecuador (73%) Scotland (10%)
				England (34%) Ecuador (26%) Mexico (18%) Croatia (9%)
England (71%) Croatia (25%)
		England (52%) Croatia (16%) Senegal (14%)
Senegal (38%) DR Congo (30%) Ecuador (18%)
								Argentina (35%) England (10%) Brazil (9%) Colombia (7%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (89%)
Cape Verde (51%) Saudi Arabia (34%)
				Argentina (73%) Australia (9%)
Australia (100%)
		Australia (49%) Belgium (31%) Iran (9%)
Belgium (52%) Egypt (21%) Iran (19%)
						Argentina (52%) Colombia (14%) Portugal (9%)
Switzerland (100%)
		Switzerland (65%) Egypt (9%)
Egypt (31%) Iran (19%) Algeria (13%) Belgium (11%)
				Colombia (33%) Switzerland (28%) Portugal (22%) Croatia (4%)
Colombia (61%) Portugal (39%)
		Colombia (52%) Portugal (33%) Croatia (7%)
Ghana (80%) Croatia (16%)