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The tables below show the chances given combination of results. South Korea need a point to be certain, while both Czechia and South Africa need to win to have a reasonable chance to go through.
In Group B, Qatar play a do or die against Bosnia and Herzegovina. The winner is most likely through, while a draw likely means they both go home.
In Group C, Scotland need a point against Brazil to secure advancement, but have a reasonable chance also with a loss as long as they keep down the scoring.
| Group A | Probabilities | ||||||||
| Team | Pld | GD | Pts | xPts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 |
| Mexico | 2 | +3 | 6 | 8.11 | 100% | 100% | |||
| South Korea | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5.1 | 2.8% | 14% | 83% | 94% | |
| Czechia | 2 | -1 | 1 | 1.7 | 36% | 62% | 2.4% | 18% | |
| South Africa | 2 | -2 | 1 | 1.71 | 61% | 24% | 15% | 17% | |
South Korea
| South Africa - South Korea | ||||||||||
| +4 | 2-0 | 3-1 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Draw | Away | |||
| 27% | 57% | 60% | 72% | 74% | 77% | 100% | 100% | Mex - Cze | ||
| 32% | 68% | 72% | 86% | 89% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 96.6% | Home | |
| 33% | 69% | 72% | 86% | 90% | 91% | 100% | 100% | 96.6% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 83% | Away | |||||||
Czechia
| Mexico - Czechia | ||||||||
| Home | 0-0 | 1-1 | 2-2 | 3-3 | Away | |||
| 2.6% | 4.8% | 7% | 8% | 100% | Sou - Sou | |||
| 100% | 17% | Home | ||||||
| 3% | 6% | 8% | 9% | 100% | 18% | Draw | ||
| 3% | 6% | 9% | 10% | 100% | 18% | Away | ||
South Africa
| South Africa - South Korea | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| >99.99% | 0.3% | Mex - Cze | |||
| 100% | 0.5% | 17% | Home | ||
| 100% | 17% | Draw | |||
| >99.99% | 17% | Away | |||
| Group B | Probabilities | ||||||||
| Team | Pld | GD | Pts | xPts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 |
| Canada | 2 | +6 | 4 | 5.36 | 0.11% | 38% | 62% | 100% | |
| Switzerland | 2 | +3 | 4 | 5.4 | < 0.1% | 62% | 38% | >99.99% | |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 2 | -3 | 1 | 2.92 | 21% | 78% | 0.11% | 57% | |
| Qatar | 2 | -6 | 1 | 1.86 | 79% | 21% | < 0.1% | 21% | |
Switzerland
| Canada - Switzerland | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| >99.99% | 100% | 100% | Bos - Qat | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| >99.99% | 100% | 100% | >99.99% | Away | |
Bosnia and Herzegovina
| Bosnia and Herzegovina - Qatar | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| >99.99% | 0.3% | Can - Swi | |||
| 99.99% | 0.3% | 57% | Home | ||
| >99.99% | 0.3% | 57% | Draw | ||
| >99.99% | 0.3% | 57% | Away | ||
Qatar
| Bosnia and Herzegovina - Qatar | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 99.80% | Can - Swi | ||||
| 99.8% | 21% | Home | |||
| 99.8% | 21% | Draw | |||
| 99.8% | 21% | Away | |||
| Group C | Probabilities | ||||||||
| Team | Pld | GD | Pts | xPts | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | 1st | Last 32 |
| Brazil | 2 | +3 | 4 | 6.07 | 15% | 22% | 62% | >99.99% | |
| Morocco | 2 | +1 | 4 | 6.25 | 2.3% | 65% | 32% | >99.99% | |
| Scotland | 2 | 0 | 3 | 3.73 | 82% | 12% | 5% | 84% | |
| Haiti | 2 | -4 | 0 | 0.57 | 100% | ||||
Brazil
| Brazil - Scotland | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | 100% | >99.99% | Mor - Hai | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Away | |
Morocco
| Morocco - Haiti | |||||
| Home | Draw | Away | |||
| 100% | 100% | >99.99% | Bra - Sco | ||
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Home | |
| 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | Draw | |
| 100% | 100% | >99.99% | >99.99% | Away | |
Scotland
| Brazil - Scotland | |||||||||||
| +4 | 3-0 | 4-1 | +2 | 1-0 | 2-1 | 3-2 | Draw | Away | |||
| 50% | 61% | 63% | 77% | 89% | 90% | 92% | 100% | 100% | Mor - Hai | ||
| 50% | 61% | 63% | 77% | 89% | 90% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 84% | Home | |
| 49% | 61% | 64% | 77% | 88% | 90% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 84% | Draw | |
| 49% | 61% | 63% | 78% | 89% | 89% | 92% | 100% | 100% | 84% | Away | |
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