Predictions after match day 2

Five teams already knocked out after two matches. 18 teams practically (>99.9%) secured a place in the last 32. The projected quarter finals are currently

France - Netherlands

Spain - United States

Norway - England

Argentina - Colombia 

Team	Round of 32	Round of 16	Quarterfinals	Semifinals	Final	Champion
Spain	100%	83%	61%	51%	37%	25%
Argentina	100%	89%	73%	52%	36%	21%
France	100%	84%	60%	42%	24%	14%
England	>99.99%	70%	44%	27%	14%	7%
Portugal	100%	69%	38%	20%	11%	4.8%
Colombia	100%	74%	45%	21%	11%	4.8%
Brazil	>99.99%	60%	36%	20%	9%	4.0%
Netherlands	100%	60%	37%	18%	8%	3.3%
Norway	100%	74%	37%	18%	7%	2.4%
Germany	100%	63%	26%	14%	6%	2.2%
Croatia	98.8%	49%	23%	12%	5%	2.0%
Japan	100%	48%	26%	12%	4.3%	1.5%
Switzerland	>99.99%	68%	31%	12%	4.4%	1.5%
United States	100%	73%	39%	10%	3.3%	0.91%
Mexico	100%	55%	22%	9%	2.8%	0.86%
Belgium	86%	50%	18%	6%	2.6%	0.81%
Ecuador	39%	23%	13%	5%	2.2%	0.87%
Senegal	63%	30%	16%	6%	2.1%	0.70%
Morocco	>99.99%	38%	17%	6%	1.7%	0.46%
Uruguay	34%	19%	9%	4.0%	1.6%	0.56%
Canada	100%	56%	21%	5%	1.5%	0.37%
Paraguay	86%	40%	11%	4.5%	1.5%	0.43%
Austria	95.3%	27%	11%	3.9%	1.4%	0.38%
South Korea	94%	38%	13%	3.2%	0.74%	0.16%
Australia	91%	39%	8%	3.0%	0.86%	0.21%
Scotland	84%	30%	9%	2.9%	0.67%	0.15%
Iran	71%	32%	11%	2.4%	0.67%	0.14%
Algeria	78%	25%	9%	1.9%	0.49%	0.10%
Sweden	92%	19%	6%	1.7%	0.34%	< 0.1%
Egypt	>99.99%	36%	11%	1.7%	0.38%	< 0.1%
Ivory Coast	92%	20%	4.9%	1.1%	0.16%	< 0.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	57%	14%	4.0%	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Czechia	18%	8%	3.3%	0.57%	0.14%	< 0.1%
DR Congo	32%	6%	1.5%	0.31%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Ghana	99.94%	9%	1.5%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Uzbekistan	14%	3.2%	1.2%	0.31%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Cape Verde	61%	4.9%	1.0%	0.13%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Saudi Arabia	40%	3.3%	0.78%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
New Zealand	14%	3.3%	0.38%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
South Africa	17%	3.1%	0.46%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Qatar	21%	2.5%	0.37%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Curaçao	16%	1.4%	0.15%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
Iraq	6%	1.3%	0.36%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Last 32		Last 16		Quarter-finals		Semi-finals		Final		Champions
Germany (100%)
		Germany (63%) Paraguay (15%)
Paraguay (39%) Australia (32%) Scotland (18%)
				France (47%) Germany (26%) Norway (8%)
France (79%) Norway (21%)
		France (65%) Norway (14%)
Sweden (67%) Japan (18%)
						France (34%) Germany (14%) Netherlands (12%) Switzerland (8%)
South Korea (83%) South Africa (15%)
		Switzerland (43%) South Korea (32%) Canada (22%)
Switzerland (62%) Canada (38%)
				Netherlands (25%) Switzerland (20%) Morocco (12%) Japan (11%)
Netherlands (61%) Japan (34%)
		Netherlands (38%) Morocco (24%) Japan (19%) Brazil (13%)
Morocco (65%) Brazil (22%)
								Spain (34%) France (19%) Germany (6%) Portugal (5%)
Portugal (61%) Colombia (39%)
		Portugal (36%) Croatia (24%) Colombia (23%) England (16%)
Croatia (56%) England (29%) Ghana (16%)
				Spain (53%) Portugal (14%) Colombia (9%)
Spain (86%)
		Spain (74%) Austria (14%)
Austria (71%) Algeria (29%)
						Spain (47%) Portugal (10%) United States (10%)
United States (100%)
		United States (73%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (14%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (57%) Qatar (21%) Senegal (6%)
				United States (39%) Belgium (8%) Senegal (8%) Egypt (7%)
Egypt (48%) Iran (30%) Belgium (23%)
		Egypt (19%) Iran (14%) Belgium (14%) Algeria (9%) Senegal (9%)
Algeria (20%) Czechia (15%) Senegal (13%) South Korea (11%) Austria (10%)
										Spain (25%) Argentina (21%) France (14%) England (7%)
Brazil (62%) Morocco (32%)
		Brazil (37%) Japan (22%) Netherlands (21%) Morocco (13%)
Japan (47%) Netherlands (39%) Sweden (15%)
				Norway (29%) Brazil (22%) France (13%) Netherlands (12%)
Ivory Coast (84%)
		Norway (60%) France (19%) Ivory Coast (18%)
Norway (79%) France (21%)
						England (22%) Brazil (15%) Norway (14%) Mexico (9%) France (9%)
Mexico (100%)
		Mexico (55%) Scotland (19%) Ecuador (9%)
Scotland (48%) Ecuador (16%) Brazil (10%)
				England (37%) Mexico (22%) Croatia (10%) Senegal (8%)
England (71%) Croatia (25%)
		England (54%) Croatia (17%) Senegal (14%)
Senegal (37%) DR Congo (32%) Uzbekistan (14%)
								Argentina (36%) England (11%) Colombia (8%) Brazil (7%)
Argentina (100%)
		Argentina (89%)
Cape Verde (51%) Saudi Arabia (34%)
				Argentina (73%) Belgium (8%)
Australia (57%) Paraguay (43%)
		Belgium (30%) Australia (28%) Paraguay (24%) Iran (9%)
Belgium (52%) Egypt (21%) Iran (20%)
						Argentina (52%) Colombia (15%) Portugal (10%)
Canada (62%) Switzerland (38%)
		Canada (33%) Switzerland (25%) Egypt (10%) Iran (8%)
Egypt (28%) Algeria (21%) Iran (20%) Austria (10%)
				Colombia (36%) Portugal (23%) Switzerland (11%) Canada (11%)
Colombia (61%) Portugal (39%)
		Colombia (52%) Portugal (33%) Croatia (8%)
Ghana (80%) Croatia (18%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 32	Chance
4	-	36%	36%	99.95%
3	-1	10%	9%	93%
3	-2	8%	6%	81%
3	3-6	1.9%	1.2%	65%
3	2-5	1.9%	1.2%	61%
3	3-7	1.0%	0.53%	51%
3	2-6	1.3%	0.63%	49%
3	3-8	1.3%	0.42%	33%
3	2-7	0.91%	0.33%	36%
3	-6	2.3%	0.53%	23%
2	3-4	2.9%	0.25%	9%
1	-	7%