in silico soccer: Important match for Portugal against Uzbekistan

Important match for Portugal against Uzbekistan, when the roughly double their chances to win the tournament if they win compared to if they don't. Uzbekistan are out if they lose and DR Congo win.

In Group L, Croatia and Panama play a do or die. Croatia are out if they lose and Ghana take a point against England. Panama are out if they lose and England take a point against Ghana.

Group I				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
France	2	+5	6	7.93			21%	79%	100%
Norway	2	+4	6	6.86			79%	21%	100%
Senegal	2	-3	0	2.21	14%	86%			64%
Iraq	2	-6	0	0.61	86%	14%			6%

Group J				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Argentina	2	+5	6	8.54				100%	100%
Austria	2	0	3	4.65		29%	71%		96.3%
Algeria	2	-2	3	4.11		71%	29%		79%
Jordan	2	-3	0	0.33	100%

Group K				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
Colombia	1	+2	3	6.68	0.85%	8%	26%	65%	98.8%
Portugal	1	0	1	4.58	8%	20%	43%	29%	85%
DR Congo	1	0	1	2.65	43%	36%	17%	4.2%	43%
Uzbekistan	1	-2	0	2.26	49%	35%	15%	1.3%	42%

Colombia

DR Congo - Colombia
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
81%	85%	89%	91%	100%	100%	Por - Uzb
87%	90%	95%	98.0%	100%	100%	99.63%	Home
75%	79%	79%	81%	100%	100%	97.8%	Draw
62%	70%	71%	72%	100%	100%	96.7%	Away

Portugal

Portugal - Uzbekistan
Home	Draw	Away
>99.99%	66%	40%	DR - Col
>99.99%	53%	39%	82%	Home
>99.99%	65%	40%	84%	Draw
100%	69%	40%	85%	Away

DR Congo

DR Congo - Colombia
Home	Draw	Away
>99.99%	53%	32%	Por - Uzb
100%	54%	31%	43%	Home
100%	56%	39%	49%	0-0
99.9%	54%	33%	44%	1-1
100%	55%	31%	43%	2-2
100%	54%	30%	42%	3-3
>99.99%	47%	31%	41%	Away

Uzbekistan

Portugal - Uzbekistan
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
21%	27%	33%	37%	48%	84%	86%	87%	88%	DR - Col
				46%	84%	86%	87%	90%	21%	Home
25%	31%	38%	42%	46%	83%	86%	88%	87%	45%	Draw
24%	30%	37%	42%	49%	84%	86%	87%	88%	45%	Away

Factors influencing which team wins the tournament
2.98; Portugal have 4.6% if they win against Uzbekistan; otherwise 2.1%
2.32; Portugal have 4.1% if they draw (or win) against Uzbekistan; otherwise 1.4%

Group L				Probabilities
Team	Pld	GD	Pts	xPts	4th	3rd	2nd	1st	Last 32
England	1	+2	3	7.92	0.45%	0.78%	7%	92%	99.54%
Ghana	1	+1	3	3.56	14%	69%	14%	2.8%	55%
Panama	1	-1	0	1.38	77%	15%	6%	2.4%	20%
Croatia	1	-2	0	4.54	9%	15%	73%	2.8%	88%

England

England - Ghana
Home	Draw	Away
100%	99.97%	90%	Cro - Pan
100%	100%	87%	99.43%	Home
100%	99.8%	89%	99.5%	Draw
100%	100%	99.3%	99.97%	Away

Ghana

England - Ghana
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	Away
41%	46%	54%	63%	98.3%	100%	Cro - Pan
46%	52%	62%	73%	99.95%	100%	62%	Home
43%	48%	56%	66%	92%	100%	57%	Draw
23%	25%	28%	33%	100%	100%	37%	0-1
20%	22%	23%	25%	99.9%	100%	33%	1-2
20%	20%	20%	22%	100%	100%	31%	2-3
25%	27%	30%	31%	100%	100%	38%	-2
25%	27%	30%	31%	100%	100%	37%	-3
33%	34%	41%	41%	100%	100%	44%	-4

Panama

Croatia - Panama
Home	Draw	0-1	1-2	2-3	-2	-3	-4
0.47%	14%	73%	79%	83%	94%	98%	99%	Eng - Gha
	14%	72%	79%	83%	94%	98.7%	99%	19%	Home
	14%	78%	82%	83%	90%	96%	99%	20%	Draw
11%	14%	78%	82%	82%	90%	96%	98%	26%	Away

Croatia

Croatia - Panama
+4	+3	+2	+1	Draw	-1	-2	-3	-4
99.95%	99.9%	99.5%	98.5%	81%	68%	54%	48%	34%	Eng - Gha
99.9%	99.9%	99.5%	98.5%	81%	79%	62%	56%	39%	90%	Home
99.9%	99.8%	99.4%	98.5%	79%					75%	Draw
99.9%	99.9%	99.5%	98%	82%					76%	Away

Last 32	Last 16	Quarter-finals	Semi-finals	Final	Champions
Germany (100%)
	Germany (64%) Paraguay (15%)
Paraguay (39%) Australia (32%) Scotland (19%)
		France (47%) Germany (26%) Norway (8%)
France (79%) Norway (21%)
	France (65%) Norway (14%)
Sweden (69%) Japan (18%)
			France (34%) Germany (14%) Netherlands (12%) Switzerland (8%)
South Korea (83%) South Africa (15%)
	Switzerland (43%) South Korea (32%) Canada (22%)
Switzerland (62%) Canada (38%)
		Netherlands (25%) Switzerland (20%) Morocco (12%) Japan (11%)
Netherlands (61%) Japan (34%)
	Netherlands (38%) Morocco (24%) Japan (19%) Brazil (13%)
Morocco (65%) Brazil (22%)
				Spain (36%) France (19%) Germany (6%) Netherlands (5%)
Portugal (43%) Colombia (26%) DR Congo (17%)
	Croatia (40%) Portugal (27%) Colombia (16%) Uzbekistan (5%)
Croatia (73%) Ghana (14%)
		Spain (56%) Croatia (13%) Portugal (10%)
Spain (86%)
	Spain (74%) Austria (14%)
Austria (71%) Algeria (29%)
			Spain (49%) United States (10%) Croatia (9%)
United States (100%)
	United States (73%) Bosnia and Herzegovina (14%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina (57%) Qatar (21%) Senegal (6%)
		United States (39%) Belgium (8%) Egypt (7%) Senegal (7%)
Egypt (48%) Iran (30%) Belgium (23%)
	Egypt (19%) Iran (14%) Belgium (14%) Algeria (10%) Senegal (8%)
Algeria (22%) Czechia (15%) South Korea (12%) Senegal (12%) Austria (11%)
					Spain (26%) Argentina (21%) France (14%) England (7%)
Brazil (62%) Morocco (32%)
	Brazil (37%) Japan (22%) Netherlands (21%) Morocco (13%)
Japan (47%) Netherlands (39%) Sweden (15%)
		Norway (29%) Brazil (22%) France (13%) Netherlands (12%)
Ivory Coast (84%)
	Norway (60%) France (19%) Ivory Coast (18%)
Norway (79%) France (21%)
			England (28%) Brazil (14%) Norway (13%) Mexico (8%)
Mexico (100%)
	Mexico (55%) Scotland (19%) Ecuador (8%)
Scotland (49%) Ecuador (13%) Brazil (10%)
		England (46%) Mexico (21%) Scotland (5%)
England (92%)
	England (68%) Senegal (7%)
Uzbekistan (26%) DR Congo (22%) Senegal (20%) Portugal (13%)
				Argentina (36%) England (14%) Colombia (8%) Brazil (6%)
Argentina (100%)
	Argentina (89%)
Cape Verde (51%) Saudi Arabia (34%)
		Argentina (73%) Belgium (8%)
Australia (57%) Paraguay (43%)
	Belgium (30%) Australia (28%) Paraguay (24%) Iran (9%)
Belgium (52%) Egypt (21%) Iran (19%)
			Argentina (53%) Colombia (14%) Portugal (7%)
Canada (62%) Switzerland (38%)
	Canada (34%) Switzerland (25%) Egypt (10%) Iran (9%)
Egypt (29%) Iran (21%) Algeria (20%) Belgium (11%)
		Colombia (34%) Portugal (16%) Switzerland (11%) Canada (11%)
Colombia (65%) Portugal (29%)
	Colombia (49%) Portugal (22%) Senegal (9%)
Ghana (39%) Senegal (22%) Croatia (12%) Panama (11%)

What is needed to qualify as 3rd team?

Pts	GD	Probability	Last 32	Chance
6	-	0.14%	0.14%	100%
5	-	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	100%
4	-	30%	30%	99.98%
3	-1	11%	11%	95.3%
3	3-5	1.6%	1.3%	82%
3	2-4	1.7%	1.4%	79%
3	3-6	2.3%	1.5%	67%
3	2-5	2.4%	1.5%	63%
3	3-7	1.4%	0.71%	52%
3	2-6	1.7%	0.81%	49%
3	-5	3.0%	1.2%	38%
3	-6	1.1%	0.36%	32%
2	-1	8%	0.70%	9%
1	-	7%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Group F		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group F		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%			0.6%	1.8%							23%	41%
	3rd & Last 32	93%			0.2%	0.9%							23%	41%
Netherlands	3rd	0.7%												0.7%
Netherlands	3rd & Last 32	0.7%												0.7%
Japan	3rd	19%												19%
Japan	3rd & Last 32	19%												19%
Sweden	3rd	80%			0.6%	1.8%							23%	21%
Sweden	3rd & Last 32	73%			0.2%	0.9%							23%	21%
Tunisia	3rd
Tunisia	3rd & Last 32
Group C		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group C		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%			0.8%	2.2%	1.6%	0.3%	3.8%	0.9%	7.1%	2%	23%	38%
	3rd & Last 32	86%			0.3%	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%	2.5%	0.6%	5.7%	1.7%	22%	38%
Brazil	3rd	15%												15%
Brazil	3rd & Last 32	15%												15%
Morocco	3rd	2.3%												2.3%
Morocco	3rd & Last 32	2.3%												2.3%
Scotland	3rd	82%			0.8%	2.2%	1.6%	0.3%	3.8%	0.9%	7.1%	2%	23%	20%
Scotland	3rd & Last 32	68%			0.3%	0.9%	0.8%	0.2%	2.5%	0.6%	5.7%	1.7%	22%	20%
Haiti	3rd
Haiti	3rd & Last 32
Group D		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group D		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%			1.3%	4.4%	6.1%	4.2%	10%	9.6%	6.5%	4.9%	21%	24%
	3rd & Last 32	79%			0.5%	1.9%	3.2%	2.3%	6.6%	6.6%	5.2%	4%	20%	24%
United States	3rd
United States	3rd & Last 32
Australia	3rd	43%			0.2%	0.7%	1.5%	0.7%	3.6%	2%	6.5%	4.9%	21%
Australia	3rd & Last 32	36%			< 0.1%	0.3%	0.7%	0.4%	2.3%	1.4%	5.2%	4%	20%
Paraguay	3rd	57%			1.2%	3.7%	4.7%	3.6%	6.8%	7.6%				24%
Paraguay	3rd & Last 32	43%			0.4%	1.6%	2.4%	2%	4.4%	5.2%				24%
Turkey	3rd
Turkey	3rd & Last 32
Group B		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group B		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%												78%
	3rd & Last 32	79%												78%
Canada	3rd	0.1%												0.1%
Canada	3rd & Last 32	0.1%												0.1%
Switzerland	3rd	< 0.1%												< 0.1%
Switzerland	3rd & Last 32	< 0.1%												< 0.1%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3rd	78%												57%
Bosnia and Herzegovina	3rd & Last 32	57%												57%
Qatar	3rd	22%												22%
Qatar	3rd & Last 32	22%												22%
Group J		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group J		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%			2.8%	7.2%	7.2%	6%	8.3%	11%		4.1%	17%	24%
	3rd & Last 32	75%			1%	3%	3.6%	3.2%	5.2%	7.5%		3.4%	16%	24%
Argentina	3rd
Argentina	3rd & Last 32
Austria	3rd	29%			< 0.1%	0.2%		0.6%		1.8%		4.1%	17%
Austria	3rd & Last 32	25%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.3%		1.2%		3.4%	16%
Algeria	3rd	71%			2.7%	7%	7.2%	5.4%	8.3%	9.4%				24%
Algeria	3rd & Last 32	50%			1%	2.9%	3.6%	2.9%	5.2%	6.3%				24%
Jordan	3rd
Jordan	3rd & Last 32
Group G		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group G		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%		18%										38%
	3rd & Last 32	72%		2.1%										38%
Egypt	3rd	31%												31%
Egypt	3rd & Last 32	31%												31%
Iran	3rd	47%		17%
Iran	3rd & Last 32	23%		2%
Belgium	3rd	13%		1.5%
Belgium	3rd & Last 32	11%		0.1%
New Zealand	3rd	8.4%												6.2%
New Zealand	3rd & Last 32	6.3%												6.2%
Group I		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group I		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%	18%			9.5%		1.8%					20%
	3rd & Last 32	71%				3.6%		0.9%					20%
France	3rd
France	3rd & Last 32
Norway	3rd
Norway	3rd & Last 32
Senegal	3rd	86%	18%										20%
Senegal	3rd & Last 32	64%											20%
Iraq	3rd	14%				9.5%		1.8%					< 0.1%
Iraq	3rd & Last 32	6.3%				3.6%		0.9%					< 0.1%
Group K		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group K		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%	1.9%	9.3%	0.7%	1.8%	0.6%	1.3%	0.8%	2.1%	0.8%	2.6%	6%	34%	0.8%
	3rd & Last 32	69%		1.2%	0.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	1.4%	0.6%	2.2%	5.8%	34%	0.8%
Colombia	3rd	8.1%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%		< 0.1%		0.2%	1.2%	4.4%	0.1%
Colombia	3rd & Last 32	7.8%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%		< 0.1%		0.1%	1.1%	4.4%	0.1%
Portugal	3rd	20%	1.3%	4.2%										8.3%	0.3%
Portugal	3rd & Last 32	13%		0.5%										8.3%	0.3%
DR Congo	3rd	36%	0.6%	5.1%										18%	0.4%
DR Congo	3rd & Last 32	22%		0.7%										18%	0.4%
Uzbekistan	3rd	35%			0.7%	1.7%	0.6%	1.2%	0.8%	2%	0.8%	2.4%	4.8%	3.5%
Uzbekistan	3rd & Last 32	26%			0.2%	0.7%	0.3%	0.6%	0.5%	1.4%	0.6%	2%	4.6%	3.5%
Group L		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group L		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%	1%	0.7%	7.3%	9.5%	4.1%	2.6%	3.9%	2.9%	3.1%	2.9%	8.3%	18%		1.6%
	3rd & Last 32	63%	< 0.1%	0.1%	2.2%	3.2%	1.8%	1.2%	2.3%	1.9%	2.4%	2.3%	7.8%	18%		1.6%
England	3rd	0.8%				< 0.1%							< 0.1%	0.6%		< 0.1%
England	3rd & Last 32	0.8%				< 0.1%							< 0.1%	0.6%		< 0.1%
Ghana	3rd	69%			7.2%	9%	3.8%	2.3%	3.3%	2.3%	2.1%	1.7%	2.7%	12%		1.2%
Ghana	3rd & Last 32	39%			2.1%	3%	1.6%	1.1%	1.9%	1.5%	1.6%	1.4%	2.5%	12%		1.2%
Panama	3rd	15%	0.4%	0.7%	0.2%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.7%	0.5%	1%	0.9%	3.4%	3%		< 0.1%
Panama	3rd & Last 32	11%	< 0.1%	0.1%	< 0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.4%	0.3%	0.7%	0.7%	3.1%	3%		< 0.1%
Croatia	3rd	15%	0.6%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%		0.1%		0.3%	2.2%	2.8%		0.3%
Croatia	3rd & Last 32	12%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%		< 0.1%		0.3%	2.2%	2.8%		0.3%
Group E		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group E		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%	24%	20%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.1%	< 0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	1.2%	1%	6.5%	39%
	3rd & Last 32	48%		0.9%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	1%	0.8%	6.1%	39%
Germany	3rd
Germany	3rd & Last 32
Ivory Coast	3rd	9.9%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.1%	< 0.1%	0.4%	0.2%	1.2%	1%	6.5%
Ivory Coast	3rd & Last 32	8.7%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	1%	0.8%	6.1%
Ecuador	3rd	77%	24%	20%										33%
Ecuador	3rd & Last 32	34%		0.9%										33%
Curaçao	3rd	13%	< 0.1%											6.3%
Curaçao	3rd & Last 32	6.3%												6.3%
Group H		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group H		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%		32%										11%
	3rd & Last 32	35%		2.9%										11%
Spain	3rd	5%												5%
Spain	3rd & Last 32	5%												5%
Uruguay	3rd	67%		22%
Uruguay	3rd & Last 32	17%		2.1%
Cape Verde	3rd	21%		10%
Cape Verde	3rd & Last 32	7.6%		0.8%
Saudi Arabia	3rd	7%												5.6%
Saudi Arabia	3rd & Last 32	5.6%												5.6%
Group A		point	1	2	3									4	5	6
Group A		GD	-	-1	-6	-5	2-6	3-7	2-5	3-6	2-4	3-5	-1	-	-	-
	3rd	100%	40%	16%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.2%	< 0.1%	0.6%	0.3%	1.8%	1.4%	9.2%	17%
	3rd & Last 32	30%	< 0.1%	1.2%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	1.3%	1.1%	8.5%	17%
Mexico	3rd
Mexico	3rd & Last 32
South Korea	3rd	14%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.2%	< 0.1%	0.6%	0.3%	1.8%	1.4%	9.2%
South Korea	3rd & Last 32	12%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.3%	0.2%	1.3%	1.1%	8.5%
Czechia	3rd	62%	31%	16%										14%
Czechia	3rd & Last 32	15%	< 0.1%	1.2%										14%
South Africa	3rd	24%	8.9%											2.4%
South Africa	3rd & Last 32	2.5%												2.4%

in silico soccer

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Important match for Portugal against Uzbekistan

No comments:

Post a Comment

Blog Archive

Subscribe To

Tuesday, June 23, 2026

Important match for Portugal against Uzbekistan

No comments:

Post a Comment

Blog Archive