We have simulated the league phase a million times and most of the time 8-10 points are required to reach top-24 and the knockout stage, while 14-17 points are required to finish top-8. Probabilities for teams are shown below in the table.
| Pos | Pts | Team | Pts | GD | Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 | R16 | QF | Semi | Final | Champ |
|
|
|
|
| 1 | 0 | Arsenal | 18 | 18-6 | 99.53% | 96.0% | 80% | 97.0% | 78% | 59% | 43% | 28% |
| 2 | 0 | Bayern Munich | 16 | 18-8 | 97.8% | 88% | 62% | 91% | 66% | 43% | 26% | 14% |
| 3 | 0 | Real Madrid | 16 | 17-9 | 98.0% | 88% | 59% | 87% | 53% | 28% | 13% | 6% |
| 4 | 0 | Inter Milan | 16 | 19-15 | 97.4% | 86% | 55% | 83% | 46% | 21% | 9% | 3.6% |
| 5 | 0 | Barcelona | 15 | 17-4 | 96.8% | 84% | 53% | 86% | 55% | 32% | 16% | 8% |
| 6 | 0 | Liverpool | 15 | 22-12 | 95.7% | 82% | 52% | 82% | 48% | 24% | 11% | 4.7% |
| 7 | 0 | Paris Saint-Germain | 15 | 19-9 | 96.4% | 83% | 51% | 86% | 57% | 34% | 19% | 9% |
| 8 | 0 | Man City | 15 | 14-8 | 95% | 78% | 47% | 84% | 56% | 34% | 19% | 9% |
| 9 | 0 | Aston Villa | 15 | 19-14 | 95% | 78% | 46% | 80% | 47% | 25% | 11% | 5% |
| 10 | 0 | Man United | 14 | 21-11 | 94% | 75% | 42% | 78% | 45% | 23% | 11% | 4.6% |
| 11 | 0 | Sporting CP | 14 | 11-10 | 92% | 68% | 32% | 67% | 31% | 12% | 4.4% | 1.6% |
| 12 | 0 | Borussia Dortmund | 13 | 12-9 | 87% | 60% | 25% | 60% | 26% | 10% | 3.3% | 1.1% |
| 13 | 0 | Porto | 13 | 12-10 | 85% | 58% | 25% | 56% | 22% | 7% | 2.2% | 0.68% |
| 14 | 0 | VfB Stuttgart | 12 | 14-7 | 82% | 53% | 21% | 49% | 16% | 4.4% | 1.0% | 0.28% |
| 15 | 0 | Atletico Madrid | 12 | 11-10 | 78% | 47% | 17% | 50% | 21% | 8% | 2.5% | 0.85% |
| 16 | 0 | PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 14-14 | 78% | 46% | 16% | 43% | 14% | 3.7% | 0.89% | 0.23% |
| 17 | 0 | Roma | 12 | 11-11 | 78% | 46% | 16% | 46% | 17% | 5% | 1.5% | 0.46% |
| 18 | 0 | Napoli | 12 | 14-15 | 78% | 45% | 15% | 45% | 15% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 0.35% |
| 19 | 0 | RB Leipzig | 11 | 16-15 | 73% | 39% | 12% | 38% | 12% | 3.3% | 0.78% | 0.21% |
| 20 | 0 | Villarreal | 11 | 14-15 | 70% | 36% | 11% | 36% | 11% | 3.1% | 0.73% | 0.19% |
| 21 | 0 | Real Betis | 10 | 15-12 | 66% | 32% | 8% | 32% | 9% | 2.4% | 0.52% | 0.13% |
| 22 | 0 | Lille | 10 | 17-15 | 65% | 31% | 8% | 31% | 9% | 2.2% | 0.49% | 0.12% |
| 23 | 0 | Lens | 10 | 14-14 | 62% | 31% | 9% | 32% | 10% | 2.9% | 0.72% | 0.19% |
| 24 | 0 | Como | 10 | 9-9 | 62% | 29% | 8% | 31% | 10% | 2.7% | 0.63% | 0.17% |
| 25 | 0 | Fenerbahce | 10 | 11-12 | 61% | 27% | 7% | 22% | 4.0% | 0.65% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 26 | 0 | Club Brugge | 10 | 6-11 | 55% | 24% | 6% | 27% | 8% | 2.2% | 0.51% | 0.13% |
| 27 | 0 | AEK Athens | 10 | 10-17 | 55% | 21% | 4.3% | 17% | 2.8% | 0.41% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 28 | 0 | Bodoe Glimt | 10 | 10-18 | 54% | 22% | 5% | 22% | 5% | 1.1% | 0.20% | < 0.1% |
| 29 | 0 | Viking | 8 | 12-14 | 40% | 12% | 2.1% | 11% | 1.7% | 0.24% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 30 | 0 | Galatasaray | 8 | 11-15 | 38% | 13% | 2.4% | 13% | 2.8% | 0.52% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 31 | 0 | Slavia Prague | 8 | 11-16 | 36% | 11% | 1.8% | 11% | 1.9% | 0.31% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 32 | 0 | Feyenoord | 7 | 9-18 | 24% | 6% | 0.94% | 6% | 0.73% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
| 33 | 0 | LASK | 5 | 7-16 | 9% | 1.5% | 0.12% | 0.81% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
|
| 34 | 0 | Slovan Bratislava | 4 | 5-12 | 5% | 0.63% | < 0.1% | 0.25% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
|
|
| 35 | 0 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 2 | 6-22 | 0.56% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
|
|
|
| 36 | 0 | Sabah | 2 | 1-25 | 0.39% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% | < 0.1% |
|
|
Expected Requirement
| Top 24 | Top 16 | Top 8 |
| Pts | GD | Pts | GD | Pts | GD |
| 1% | 11 | 8-9 | 14 | 14-12 | 17 | 22-10 |
| 5% | 10 | 11-9 | 13 | 18-13 | 17 | 14-8 |
| 25% | 10 | 9-12 | 13 | 11-10 | 16 | 16-9 |
| 50% | 9 | 8-7 | 12 | 13-8 | 16 | 12-11 |
| 75% | 9 | 15-19 | 12 | 11-10 | 15 | 15-9 |
| 95% | 8 | 6-8 | 11 | 17-15 | 14 | 16-9 |
| 99% | 8 | 14-21 | 11 | 13-14 | 14 | 14-11 |
| Important for Top-8 |
| Real Madrid vs Inter Milan (14.7%) | Home Win (48%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (28%) |
| Real Madrid | 75% | 52% | 38% |
| Inter Milan | 42% | 56% | 77% |
| Porto vs Man City (12.2%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (50%) |
| Man City | 28% | 39% | 61% |
| Porto | 44% | 24% | 15% |
| Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (11.2%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Liverpool | 65% | 42% | 30% |
| Atletico Madrid | 10% | 17% | 34% |
| Napoli vs Arsenal (9.7%) | Home Win (17%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (63%) |
| Arsenal | 60% | 72% | 88% |
| Napoli | 34% | 16% | 9% |
| Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (9.3%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (49%) |
| Aston Villa | 27% | 38% | 60% |
| Club Brugge | 14% | 5% | 2.7% |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.2%) | Home Win (53%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Borussia Dortmund | 35% | 17% | 10% |
| Villarreal | 5% | 10% | 23% |
| Fenerbahce vs Roma (7.3%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (47%) |
| Roma | 6% | 11% | 25% |
| Fenerbahce | 14% | 5% | 2.5% |
| Como vs RB Leipzig (6.7%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| RB Leipzig | 5% | 10% | 23% |
| Como | 14% | 5% | 2.6% |
| Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (6.6%) | Home Win (63%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Sporting CP | 41% | 21% | 13% |
| Galatasaray | 1.0% | 2.3% | 7% |
| Bayern Munich vs Bodoe Glimt (6.5%) | Home Win (75%) | Draw (15%) | Away Win (10%) |
| Bayern Munich | 69% | 46% | 35% |
| Bodoe Glimt | 3.3% | 7% | 17% |
| Lille vs Real Betis (6.3%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Real Betis | 3.3% | 6% | 17% |
| Lille | 14% | 4.9% | 2.4% |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (5.4%) | Home Win (59%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| VfB Stuttgart | 28% | 13% | 8% |
| Viking | 0.8% | 1.8% | 6% |
| Important for Knockout Stage |
| Slavia Prague vs Lens (14%) | Home Win (32%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (44%) |
| Slavia Prague | 58% | 33% | 22% |
| Lens | 45% | 58% | 78% |
| Lille vs Real Betis (14%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Lille | 81% | 60% | 47% |
| Real Betis | 52% | 66% | 84% |
| Fenerbahce vs Roma (12.8%) | Home Win (30%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (47%) |
| Fenerbahce | 82% | 61% | 48% |
| Roma | 63% | 74% | 90% |
| Como vs RB Leipzig (12.8%) | Home Win (44%) | Draw (24%) | Away Win (32%) |
| Como | 77% | 56% | 44% |
| RB Leipzig | 61% | 73% | 90% |
| VfB Stuttgart vs Viking (11.4%) | Home Win (59%) | Draw (21%) | Away Win (20%) |
| Viking | 30% | 42% | 67% |
| VfB Stuttgart | 90% | 76% | 65% |
| AEK Athens vs LASK (10.4%) | Home Win (65%) | Draw (19%) | Away Win (16%) |
| AEK Athens | 65% | 40% | 29% |
| LASK | 5% | 10% | 26% |
| Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal (9.8%) | Home Win (53%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Villarreal | 60% | 72% | 88% |
| Borussia Dortmund | 94% | 84% | 74% |
| Sporting CP vs Galatasaray (9.1%) | Home Win (63%) | Draw (20%) | Away Win (17%) |
| Galatasaray | 30% | 41% | 64% |
| Sporting CP | 96.5% | 87% | 79% |
| Club Brugge vs Aston Villa (8%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (49%) |
| Club Brugge | 75% | 55% | 43% |
| Aston Villa | 89% | 94% | 98.2% |
| Liverpool vs Atletico Madrid (5.7%) | Home Win (54%) | Draw (22%) | Away Win (24%) |
| Atletico Madrid | 71% | 80% | 92% |
| Liverpool | 98.5% | 95% | 91% |
| Porto vs Man City (5.4%) | Home Win (27%) | Draw (23%) | Away Win (50%) |
| Porto | 95.1% | 87% | 79% |
| Man City | 89% | 94% | 98.2% |
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment