PL: Manchester Derby on Sunday

 

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
9	Arsenal	83.9	+50		99.97%	99.93%	99.83%	99.57%	81%	< 0.1%	0.12%	99.85%
9	Man City	74.0	+32	< 0.1%	98.2%	96.9%	95%	91%	16%	0.76%	3.4%	95%
5	Liverpool	63.4	+18	< 0.1%	78%	70%	60%	47%	1.4%	6%	17%	60%
4	Man United	62.1	+17	< 0.1%	72%	63%	53%	40%	0.97%	7%	19%	54%
1	Aston Villa	61.1	+14	< 0.1%	67%	58%	47%	34%	0.64%	7%	20%	48%
2	Bournemouth	57.0	+10	0.39%	46%	37%	27%	17%	0.19%	9%	15%	44%
6	Chelsea	56.7	+5	0.43%	43%	34%	25%	16%	0.16%	9%	18%	24%
5	Newcastle	55.6	+6	0.60%	38%	29%	21%	13%	0.12%	8%	18%	20%
4	Brighton	55.2	+7	0.69%	36%	28%	19%	12%	0.11%	5%	39%	19%
5	Brentford	54.7	+5	0.79%	34%	25%	18%	11%	< 0.1%	12%	16%	17%
5	Everton	51.9	-1	1.9%	21%	15%	9%	5%	< 0.1%	9%	12%	9%
5	Leeds	51.3	-3	2.3%	19%	13%	8%	4.5%	< 0.1%	6%	11%	8%
2	Forest	50.7	-1	2.8%	17%	12%	7%	4.1%	< 0.1%	5%	11%	7%
3	Crystal Palace	50.2	-6	3.2%	15%	10%	6%	3.4%	< 0.1%	4.9%	8%	17%
0	Fulham	47.3	-5	6%	8%	5%	3.1%	1.6%	< 0.1%	4.2%	7%	3.0%
1	Tottenham	45.0	-12	11%	4.5%	2.7%	1.5%	0.70%	< 0.1%	2.6%	3.8%	1.4%
4	Sunderland	42.7	-16	18%	2.3%	1.3%	0.68%	0.30%	< 0.1%	2.1%	2.0%	5%
3	Ipswich	32.4	-37	77%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.22%	0.15%	< 0.1%
0	Coventry	31.5	-33	80%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.15%	0.20%	< 0.1%
7	Hull	27.0	-50	95%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

 

Important matches for title race
Man United vs Man City (1.1%)	Home Win (38%)	Draw (24%)	Away Win (38%)
Man City	12%	15%	20%
Arsenal	83%	82%	77%
Man United	1.5%	0.8%	0.5%