EL: Favorites likely advancing

The fur favorites: Benfica, Bournemouth, Leverkusen, and Juventus are all doing well and are likely advancing to last 16. 

 

Europa League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	9	Benfica	+16	21	19-22	>99.99%	99.94%	98.0%	99.66%	75%	50%	29%	16%
2	9	Bournemouth	+15	20	18-22	>99.99%	99.87%	96.3%	99.42%	75%	51%	31%	17%
3	9	Bayer Leverkusen	+14	19	17-21	>99.99%	99.59%	92%	98.8%	76%	52%	33%	19%
4	7	Juventus	+10	17	15-19	99.88%	97.0%	75%	95.0%	67%	40%	22%	12%
5	9	Olympiakos	+4	17	15-19	99.91%	96.1%	67%	87%	39%	13%	3.8%	1.2%
6	7	Union Saint-Gilloise	+6	16	14-17	99.51%	92%	56%	89%	56%	29%	14%	7%
7	7	Sunderland	0	16	14-17	99.34%	90%	50%	81%	37%	13%	4.4%	1.5%
8	9	Ferencvaros	+1	15	13-16	99.53%	87%	37%	67%	21%	4.8%	0.99%	0.26%
9	6	Lyon	+1	15	13-16	98.5%	84%	38%	82%	47%	23%	11%	4.9%
10	4	Crystal Palace	+8	14	12-16	97.6%	82%	38%	84%	52%	28%	15%	7%
11	5	Rennes	+7	14	12-16	97.3%	81%	36%	76%	36%	14%	5%	2.0%
12	3	Milan	+3	14	12-16	97.6%	79%	28%	82%	49%	26%	14%	7%
13	7	Besiktas	+4	13	11-15	96.0%	70%	22%	61%	21%	6%	1.6%	0.47%
14	4	Real Sociedad	+7	12	10-14	93%	61%	14%	66%	30%	13%	5%	2.1%
15	6	AZ	+6	12	10-14	93%	62%	16%	54%	17%	4.8%	1.2%	0.35%
16	6	Omonia	+1	11	10-13	84%	43%	7%	36%	8%	1.7%	0.31%	< 0.1%
17	3	Celta Vigo	-2	11	9-13	79%	37%	5%	49%	20%	8%	2.8%	1.1%
18	4	Sturm Graz	-3	11	9-13	79%	34%	4.3%	30%	6%	1.1%	0.19%	< 0.1%
19	4	Red Bull Salzburg	-8	11	9-12	74%	29%	3.1%	31%	7%	1.7%	0.34%	< 0.1%
20	3	TSG Hoffenheim	+1	10	8-12	75%	33%	4.5%	43%	15%	5%	1.8%	0.61%
21	3	Anderlecht	+1	10	8-12	71%	30%	3.5%	31%	8%	1.8%	0.38%	< 0.1%
22	4	NEC	-4	10	8-12	66%	25%	2.9%	19%	2.8%	0.39%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
23	4	Sparta Prague	-1	9	7-11	59%	19%	1.9%	23%	5%	1.2%	0.23%	< 0.1%
24	4	Dinamo Zagreb	-2	9	7-11	58%	18%	2.0%	25%	6%	1.7%	0.38%	0.10%
25	4	Levski Sofia	-2	9	7-11	57%	14%	0.95%	14%	1.8%	0.23%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	0	Marseille	0	8	6-10	49%	12%	0.40%	28%	12%	5%	2.0%	0.78%
27	1	Lech Poznan	-8	8	7-10	39%	7%	0.24%	16%	4.1%	1.0%	0.24%	< 0.1%
28	3	Jagiellonia Bialystok	-5	7	6-9	32%	6%	0.38%	9%	1.5%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
29	0	Celtic	-8	7	5-9	25%	4.0%	< 0.1%	10%	2.6%	0.65%	0.15%	< 0.1%
30	3	Torreense	-11	7	5-8	19%	2.2%	< 0.1%	1.8%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	1	Hapoel Be'er Sheva	-7	6	5-8	16%	1.8%	< 0.1%	4.9%	0.95%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	3	OFI	-8	6	4-7	16%	1.8%	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Celje	-12	6	4-8	15%	1.8%	< 0.1%	2.1%	0.17%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Viktoria Plzen	-8	5	3-7	10%	0.80%	< 0.1%	2.9%	0.58%	0.11%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Lillestrom	-14	4	2-5	3.0%	0.17%	< 0.1%	0.40%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
36	0	Ararat-Armenia	-15	4	2-6	4.0%	0.22%	< 0.1%	0.30%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	11-11	13	17-11	17	27-10
5%	10	9-12	13	15-13	17	14-6
25%	9	11-12	12	13-7	16	15-7
50%	9	10-15	12	9-8	16	10-7
75%	8	10-12	11	15-10	15	15-9
95%	8	6-13	11	14-16	14	17-10
99%	7	10-14	10	11-8	14	8-5

Conference League

Pos	Pts	Team	GD	Median Pts	50% CI	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	6	Monaco	+5	15	13-15	99.96%	98.2%	84%	97.5%	74%	50%	29%	15%
2	4	Brighton	+9	13	11-14	99.63%	93%	66%	97.0%	84%	70%	56%	39%
3	6	Twente	+8	13	12-15	99.93%	97.4%	75%	91%	46%	18%	6%	1.6%
4	4	Copenhagen	+8	13	11-14	99.63%	93%	65%	88%	49%	22%	8%	2.6%
5	3	Atalanta	+8	13	12-15	99.72%	95.6%	73%	95.7%	73%	50%	30%	15%
6	6	Lugano	+5	13	11-15	99.64%	92%	62%	84%	37%	13%	3.5%	0.88%
7	6	Trabzonspor	+5	12	10-14	99.0%	87%	51%	81%	38%	15%	4.5%	1.3%
8	3	Braga	+3	12	10-13	98.0%	82%	42%	83%	49%	25%	11%	4.2%
9	3	SC Freiburg	+2	12	10-13	97.7%	81%	41%	87%	62%	39%	22%	11%
10	6	Hajduk Split	0	12	10-13	97.8%	77%	37%	64%	20%	4.6%	0.84%	0.16%
11	6	Sint-Truiden	+4	11	10-13	97.2%	74%	36%	66%	24%	7%	1.5%	0.35%
12	1	Midtjylland	+8	10	9-11	96.1%	72%	26%	75%	41%	20%	8%	2.9%
13	6	Panathinaikos	+5	10	9-12	97.7%	73%	27%	68%	28%	10%	3.0%	0.80%
14	4	Mjaellby AIF	+4	10	8-11	96.2%	67%	19%	44%	9%	1.4%	0.18%	< 0.1%
15	6	Brann	+3	10	9-12	95.6%	67%	27%	58%	18%	4.5%	0.85%	0.17%
16	4	Universitatea Craiova	-2	10	8-11	90%	51%	12%	44%	12%	3.0%	0.56%	0.11%
17	3	Gent	-3	10	7-11	85%	49%	14%	51%	19%	6%	1.6%	0.39%
18	3	Ajax	+2	9	7-11	86%	49%	14%	59%	28%	12%	4.2%	1.4%
19	1	Red Star Belgrade	+2	9	7-10	88%	48%	10%	55%	23%	9%	2.8%	0.79%
20	1	Getafe	0	8	7-10	80%	29%	3.3%	51%	25%	11%	4.2%	1.4%
21	2	Nordsjaelland	-1	8	6-9	72%	26%	4.1%	39%	15%	5%	1.4%	0.38%
22	1	Hearts	-1	7	5-8	61%	17%	1.7%	20%	4.4%	0.86%	0.13%	< 0.1%
23	1	AGF	-1	7	5-8	58%	18%	2.3%	26%	8%	2.1%	0.46%	< 0.1%
24	3	Borac Banja Luka	-3	7	5-8	55%	15%	1.7%	13%	1.8%	0.22%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
25	1	Jablonec	-4	7	5-8	53%	14%	1.3%	17%	3.6%	0.68%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
26	2	Riga	0	6	5-8	53%	13%	1.4%	13%	2.1%	0.28%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
27	2	Egnatia	-1	6	5-8	49%	8%	0.54%	7%	0.55%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
28	0	Thun	-1	5	4-7	34%	7%	0.49%	13%	3.2%	0.73%	0.13%	< 0.1%
29	1	CSKA Sofia	-3	5	3-7	29%	4.7%	0.27%	7%	1.1%	0.15%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
30	1	Kairat	-9	4	2-5	11%	0.98%	< 0.1%	1.7%	0.18%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
31	0	KuPS	-6	3	2-5	9%	0.70%	< 0.1%	1.8%	0.26%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
32	0	Kauno Zalgiris	-13	3	1-4	4.4%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.41%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
33	1	Iberia 1999	-8	2	1-4	4.0%	0.24%	< 0.1%	0.34%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
34	0	Lincoln Red Imps	-7	1	1-3	1.9%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	0.12%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%
35	1	Pafos	-10	1	1-2	0.84%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%
36	0	Inter Club d'Escaldes	-12	1	0-3	0.87%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	8	7-7	11	8-7	13	15-5
5%	8	6-10	10	12-8	13	13-6
25%	7	6-7	10	14-13	13	11-7
50%	7	5-9	10	9-11	12	14-7
75%	6	5-6	9	9-7	12	9-5
95%	6	7-15	8	14-7	11	10-4
99%	5	7-10	8	8-7	11	11-8

Which countries get extra CL spots

		Score
Country	Probability	Average	Min	Max
England	96.0%	25.8	16.86	33.42
Germany	44%	21.92	12.52	31.25
Spain	28%	21.22	13.2	30.17
Italy	22%	20.79	11.5	31.21
Portugal	4.5%	18.6	10.05	28.9
France	2.9%	18.36	10.46	28.86
Belgium	1.9%	17.46	8.13	27.85
Denmark	0.27%	15.88	7.5	25.78
Netherlands	< 0.1%	15.35	8.33	25.21
Turkey	< 0.1%	14.35	7.7	24.95

Number of quarterfinalists from Germany; 209 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	0.85%	8%	28%	38%	20%	4.4%
Chance if	0.5%	4.7%	20%	47%	76%	93%

Number of quarterfinalists from Spain; 183 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5	6
Probability	1.2%	11%	31%	34%	18%	5%	0.71%
Chance if	0.2%	2.2%	10%	29%	56%	80%	94%

Number of quarterfinalists from Italy; 173 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4	5
Probability	1.7%	12%	32%	34%	16%	3.3%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.3%	7%	24%	53%	81%

Number of semifinalists from Germany; 173 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	10%	34%	37%	16%	2.3%
Chance if	8%	25%	52%	79%	96%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Germany; 164 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	0.84%	8%	27%	39%	22%	3.6%
Chance if	0.6%	6%	22%	47%	72%	89%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Spain; 146 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Probability	0.64%	5%	19%	32%	29%	12%	1.8%
Chance if	0.1%	1.4%	7%	19%	39%	62%	82%

Number of semifinalists from Spain; 145 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	43%	31%	9%	1.2%
Chance if	4.9%	17%	41%	70%	92%

Number of teams in last-16 stage from Italy; 139 mbit

n	2	3	4	5	6	7
Probability	1.3%	9%	29%	38%	19%	2.9%
Chance if	< 0.1%	1.1%	7%	23%	49%	73%

Number of semifinalists from Italy; 138 mbit

n	0	1	2	3	4
Probability	16%	39%	33%	11%	1.5%
Chance if	3.0%	11%	30%	59%	87%

Number of finalists from Germany; 101 mbit

n	0	1	2	3
Probability	32%	44%	20%	3.3%
Chance if	23%	44%	68%	88%