PL: A first win for Spurs

 Tottenham won against Coventry. In two thirds of the simulations we find the three relegation teams among Coventry, Hull, Sunderland, and Ipswich.

Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
21	Man City	86.6	+49		>99.99%	>99.99%	99.96%	99.85%	56%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.96%
18	Arsenal	85.1	+45		>99.99%	99.98%	99.94%	99.78%	43%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	99.95%
12	Liverpool	68.0	+22	< 0.1%	94%	89%	81%	67%	0.59%	3.4%	12%	81%
16	Brighton	65.4	+29	< 0.1%	89%	82%	71%	54%	0.32%	2.9%	22%	71%
13	Chelsea	62.0	+14	< 0.1%	75%	64%	50%	31%	< 0.1%	9%	24%	49%
8	Aston Villa	58.5	+8	< 0.1%	57%	44%	29%	16%	< 0.1%	11%	27%	30%
10	Brentford	55.9	+10	0.15%	43%	31%	19%	9%	< 0.1%	13%	24%	19%
8	Newcastle	55.1	+3	0.24%	37%	26%	15%	7%	< 0.1%	12%	22%	15%
7	Man United	54.3	+7	0.30%	35%	24%	14%	7%	< 0.1%	11%	21%	14%
6	Bournemouth	52.6	+2	0.63%	25%	16%	9%	3.8%	< 0.1%	8%	14%	24%
10	Leeds	50.8	-0	1.0%	17%	11%	5%	2.2%	< 0.1%	8%	12%	5%
10	Everton	49.5	-4	1.4%	12%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	< 0.1%	8%	9%	3.4%
7	Crystal Palace	47.9	-11	2.8%	9%	4.8%	2.2%	0.82%	< 0.1%	6%	7%	10%
5	Forest	43.5	-11	9%	2.6%	1.3%	0.52%	0.15%		2.0%	3.1%	0.52%
6	Tottenham	43.4	-13	10%	2.5%	1.2%	0.49%	0.16%		1.9%	2.9%	0.49%
5	Fulham	42.2	-12	12%	1.8%	0.83%	0.32%	< 0.1%		3.7%	2.7%	0.32%
9	Ipswich	35.0	-34	51%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.24%	< 0.1%
4	Sunderland	34.9	-26	50%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.35%	0.48%	1.6%
6	Coventry	31.2	-38	74%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.18%	< 0.1%
9	Hull	28.4	-40	87%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%			< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Man City	56%	23%	25%	15%
Arsenal	43%	26%	42%	20%
Liverpool	0.59%	9%	15%	4.0%
Brighton	0.32%	5.0%	1.5%	40%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.3%	3.4%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	5%	1.1%	1.6%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.3%	2.3%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	4.2%	2.2%
Man United	< 0.1%	4.2%		0.68%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.3%	1.0%	16%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.7%
Everton	< 0.1%	2.0%	1.5%
Crystal Palace	< 0.1%	1.9%	1.7%	8%
Forest		1.4%
Tottenham		1.2%
Fulham		1.5%	2.3%
Ipswich		0.19%
Sunderland		0.42%	0.26%	1.6%
Coventry		0.17%
Hull		< 0.1%