Premier League: Predictions after 25% of the season played

 

		Average Simulated Season		Probabilities
Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Relegated	Top 7	Top 6	Top 5	Top 4	Win League	ECL	EL	CL
27	Arsenal	88.6	+46		>99.99%	>99.99%	>99.99%	99.95%	81%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	>99.99%
21	Man City	80.0	+42		99.95%	99.85%	99.51%	98.3%	17%	< 0.1%	0.40%	99.55%
18	Liverpool	70.4	+26		97.5%	95%	88%	76%	1.1%	1.7%	8%	89%
22	Brighton	68.5	+31		95.5%	91%	83%	67%	0.76%	1.4%	14%	83%
13	Aston Villa	61.4	+12	< 0.1%	74%	60%	42%	21%	< 0.1%	9%	31%	43%
16	Chelsea	60.2	+12	< 0.1%	67%	52%	35%	17%	< 0.1%	11%	32%	35%
15	Bournemouth	58.4	+10	< 0.1%	57%	41%	25%	11%	< 0.1%	12%	24%	40%
14	Brentford	54.4	+7	0.19%	34%	21%	10%	3.8%	< 0.1%	13%	23%	11%
12	Newcastle	53.4	+1	0.31%	27%	16%	8%	2.8%	< 0.1%	12%	20%	8%
16	Everton	50.3	-4	0.77%	13%	7%	3.0%	0.94%	< 0.1%	12%	11%	3.1%
14	Leeds	50.2	-2	0.93%	14%	7%	3.1%	0.94%	< 0.1%	8%	11%	3.2%
8	Man United	48.0	-3	2.2%	8%	4.2%	1.6%	0.47%		6%	9%	1.9%
12	Tottenham	47.7	-6	2.4%	7%	3.4%	1.3%	0.37%	< 0.1%	5%	7%	1.4%
9	Forest	43.3	-11	8%	2.0%	0.82%	0.26%	< 0.1%		2.0%	2.7%	0.28%
10	Fulham	43.3	-10	8%	1.9%	0.78%	0.25%	< 0.1%		1.9%	2.9%	0.26%
7	Crystal Palace	42.7	-19	11%	1.5%	0.60%	0.18%	< 0.1%		6%	2.5%	5.0%
8	Sunderland	35.0	-26	50%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		0.60%	0.41%	0.98%
11	Ipswich	34.2	-32	57%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.23%	< 0.1%
9	Coventry	31.9	-36	72%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%		< 0.1%	0.20%	< 0.1%
11	Hull	28.6	-36	88%	< 0.1%	< 0.1%				< 0.1%	< 0.1%

Titles

Team	League	FA Cup	League Cup	Europe
Arsenal	81%	28%		22%
Man City	17%	21%	60%	13%
Liverpool	1.1%	10%	25%	3.7%
Brighton	0.76%	5%		42%
Aston Villa	< 0.1%	7%		1.9%
Chelsea	< 0.1%	4.5%
Bournemouth	< 0.1%	3.9%	5%	20%
Brentford	< 0.1%	3.0%
Newcastle	< 0.1%	3.5%
Everton	< 0.1%	1.6%	4.3%
Leeds	< 0.1%	1.6%
Man United		2.8%		0.22%
Tottenham	< 0.1%	1.6%
Forest		1.2%
Fulham		1.4%
Crystal Palace		1.5%	4.6%	4.7%
Sunderland		0.38%	0.52%	0.99%
Ipswich		0.21%
Coventry		0.19%
Hull		< 0.1%

Simulated points for winner: 86 - 93
Simulated points for 17th team: 34 - 38
Most likely combo of teams in CL

17%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
14%	Arsenal, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
10%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
6%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
4.5%	Arsenal, Bournemouth, Brighton, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
3.8%	Arsenal, Brentford, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City
2.7%	Arsenal, Brighton, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle
2.7%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City
2.2%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Bournemouth, Liverpool, Man City
1.9%	Arsenal, Aston Villa, Brighton, Chelsea, Man City

Most likely combo of teams being relegated

27%	Coventry, Hull, Ipswich
22%	Coventry, Hull, Sunderland
13%	Hull, Ipswich, Sunderland
6%	Coventry, Ipswich, Sunderland
3.8%	Coventry, Crystal Palace, Hull
3.0%	Coventry, Forest, Hull
2.9%	Coventry, Fulham, Hull
2.4%	Crystal Palace, Hull, Ipswich
1.8%	Forest, Hull, Ipswich
1.7%	Fulham, Hull, Ipswich