CL: Match Day 4

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	26-19	Real Madrid
98.5%	4	7	24-20	Paris SG	99.89% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 92%
1%	4	3	4-8	Shakhtar	7% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0%
0.2%	4	3	1-8	Malmoe	6% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0.01%

Group is virtually dead. Malmoe are hosting Paris while Shakhtar are hosting Madrid in Day 5. Both home teams must win or they're are out.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
82%	4	7	5-4	Man United	qualified if they win against PSV; otherwise 49%
54%	4	6	23-23	Wolfsburg	78% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 25%
39%	4	6	25-25	PSV	74% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 20%
25%	4	4	4-5	CSKA Moskva	50% if they win against Wolfsburg; otherwise 4%

Man U are in pole position after their late goal against Moskva. They play PSV and qualify if they win. In the other match Moskva play Wolfsburg in Moscow and more or less forces to win.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.6%	4	9	26-23	Benfica	qualified if Atletico draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 95%
96%	4	7	7-2	Atletico	qualified if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 45%
4%	4	4	24-26	Galatasaray	61% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%
0.03%	4	2	2-8	FK Astana

Benfica and Madrid can kill this group if don't lose their matches against Astana and Galatasaray, respectively. In the last round Benfica and Madrid play in a group final in Lisbon.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	9	27-24	Man City
92%	4	8	5-2	Juventus	qualified if Gladbach draw (or win) against Sevilla; otherwise 80%
8%	4	3	24-26	Sevilla	20% if they win against Gladbach; otherwise 0%
0%	4	2	2-6	Gladbach

Man City has qualified as Sevilla cannot pass them. The spot is between Juventus and Sevilla. Juventus clinch that spot if they win agaisnt Man City or Sevilla fail to win against Gladbach. Sevilla will play Juventus in the last round; if Juventus have drawn Man City and Sevilla won against Gladbach (and Juventus), internal goal difference will decide the qualification and there Juventus won the forst game with 2-0 in Turin.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.5%	4	10	8-2	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 93%
68%	4	5	29-29	Roma	89% if they win against BATE; otherwise 16%
25%	4	4	30-29	Leverkusen	58% if BATE draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 12%
7%	4	3	4-11	BATE	25% if they draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 0%

Barcelona need one more point to clinch qualification. Roma had an extremely important win against Leverkusen in last round, in which Leverkusen first caught up a 0-2 deficit and Roma then scored the winning 3-2 with 10 minutes left.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	9	13-3	Bayern
83%	4	9	25-25	Olympiakos	qualified if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 63%
17%	4	3	6-10	Arsenal	37% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 0%
0%	4	3	22-28	Dinamo Zagreb

 Bayern have qualified. Olympiakos scored an important winning goal in the last minute against Zagreb. They need another point to clinch qualification or if Arsenal fail to win against Zagreb. In the last round Olympiakos play Arsenal in Athens and in case they finish on same points, Olympiakos won the game in London with 3-2.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
92%	4	10	9-4	Porto	qualified if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 64%
87%	4	7	26-22	Chelsea	99.2% if they win against Porto; otherwise 74%
21%	4	5	24-23	Dynamo Kyiv	75% if they win against Porto; otherwise 5%
0%	4	0	1-11	M Tel Aviv

Chelsea won importantly against Kyiv in last match after a late winning goal (83rd). Kyiv travel to Portugal and need a win to keep the hope. Chelsea go to Tel Aviv and a win is crucial as they host Porto in the last match and don't want to rely on a good result in that difficult game.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	10-4	Zenit
87%	4	6	24-24	Valencia	98% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 66%
7%	4	4	23-24	Gent	33% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 3%
6%	4	1	2-7	Lyon	38% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0%

Zenit have qualified. Valencia play Zenit (away) and then Lyon in the last match. If Valencia and Gent finish on same points, Gent qualify with more away goals.

Match Day 3 - Group H

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.9%	3	9	8-4	Zenit	99.83% if Valencia draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 96%
92%	3	6	5-4	Valencia	99% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 68%
7%	3	1	2-5	Lyon	33% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0.3%
2%	3	1	3-5	Gent	6% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 0.02%

Zenit and Valencia are likely to go through from this group, and they won as expected their matches.

Match Day 3 - Group G

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
86%	3	7	6-3	Porto	96% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 57%
46%	3	5	4-2	Dynamo Kyiv	94% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 34%
67%	3	4	5-2	Chelsea	89% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 35%
0.4%	3	0	0-8	M Tel Aviv	4% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0%

This group is a three-horse-race. Chelse drew in Kiev and Porto won as expected against Tel Aviv. Next round Dynamo Kyiv will visit Chelsea, which will be a key game for this group.

Match Day 3 - Group F

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98.2%	3	6	8-2	Bayern	99.82% if they win against Arsenal; otherwise 92%
58%	3	6	4-5	Olympiakos	93% if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 25%
33%	3	3	5-5	Arsenal	72% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 6%
11%	3	3	2-7	Dinamo Zagreb	20% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 0.6%

Arsenal won surprisingly against Bayern, which gives them some hope in the group. Olympiakos importantly won against Zagreb, which makes Olympiakos and Arsenal the likely competitors about the second spot in this group. They will meet in Match Day 5 in Athens and if Olympiakos manage to at least draw there, they are likely to qualify for round of 16.

Match Day 3 - Group E

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.5%	3	7	5-2	Barcelona
45%	3	4	9-7	Leverkusen	84% if they draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 22%
6%	3	3	4-8	BATE	29% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 2%
49%	3	2	7-8	Roma	71% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 8%

This week's roller coaster happened in Germany where Leverkusen played Roma. First Roma flipped 0-2 to a 4-2 lead, before Leverkusen scored two goals to equalize in the last five minutes. In the next round they will play again, but this time in Rome. As Barcelona most likely will qualify and BATE not, the match in Rome will be key deciding who'll be the runner up.

Match Day 3 - Group D

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
86%	3	7	4-1	Juventus	99.94% if they win against Man City; otherwise 72%
49%	3	6	5-4	Man City	94% if they draw (or win) against Sevilla; otherwise 50%
59%	3	3	4-4	Sevilla	65% if they win against Man City; otherwise 13%
5%	3	1	1-5	Gladbach	13% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 0.6%

 Man City won against Sevilla after a late goal. They will meet again in Sevilla in next round, which will be a key match for the outcome of this group.

Match Day 3 - Group C

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
90%	3	6	5-3	Benfica	97% if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 42%
97%	3	6	7-2	Atletico	99% if they draw (or win) against Galatasaray; otherwise 58%
13%	3	4	4-5	Galatasaray	66% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 6%
0.2%	3	1	2-8	FK Astana	2% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 0.01%

Galatasaray grabbed the straw with a very important win home against Benfica. Benfica and Atletic are, however, still the favourites to qualify from this group.