Europa League: Clinching Scenarios

Nine teams clinched a spot in the playoff round. Nine points will likely suffice, possibly eight, and definitely ten points with a positive goal difference. To finish top-8 and get a seeded spot in round of 16, one probably need 15 points; 14 might be enough if it having a great goal difference (+10 or so). Below are the various clinching scenarios for tonight's matches.

Clinching Scenarios

• Bilbao clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Besiktas (84%)
• Lazio clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Sociedad (80%)
• Bodoe Glimt clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against M Tel Aviv (77%)
• Porto clinch knockout stage if they win against Olympiakos (66%)
• St Gillis clinch knockout stage if they win against Braga (54%)
• Viktoria Plzen clinch knockout stage if they win against Anderlecht (44%)
• Roma clinch knockout stage if they win against Alkmaar (43%)
• Sociedad clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Lazio (40%)
• Anderlecht clinch Top8 if they win against Viktoria Plzen (32%)
• Alkmaar clinch knockout stage if they win against Roma and RFS and Ajax do not draw  (28%)
• Fenerbahce clinch knockout stage if they win against Lyon and Razgrad win against Midtjylland (19%)
• Olympiakos clinch knockout stage if they win against Porto (15%)
• Ferencvaros clinch knockout stage if they win against Frankfurt (11%)
• Lyon clinch Top8 if they win against Fenerbahce and Hoffenheim win against Tottenham (10%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	16	Bilbao	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.98%	>99.99%	71%	45%	28%	14%
2	16	Lazio	20	17-5	100%	100%	99.95%	>99.99%	74%	49%	32%	16%
3	14	Anderlecht	17	15-10	100%	100%	84%	94%	45%	17%	6%	2.8%
4	13	Lyon	16	20-8	100%	>99.99%	89%	97.1%	61%	32%	16%	8%
5	12	Man United	16	15-9	100%	99.10%	78%	94%	59%	32%	16%	8%
6	13	Frankfurt	16	16-11	100%	99.92%	82%	94%	54%	26%	11%	6%
7	12	Galatasaray	15	21-15	100%	99.16%	68%	90%	49%	23%	10%	5%
8	11	Tottenham	15	15-9	100%	97.9%	63%	92%	61%	38%	22%	11%
9	10	Ajax	14	18-9	>99.99%	93%	43%	78%	36%	15%	6%	2.8%
10	11	Rangers	14	14-11	100%	83%	21%	61%	20%	6%	1.8%	< 1%
11	10	Sociedad	13	14-10	99.97%	80%	15%	74%	38%	20%	9%	4.6%
12	10	Bodoe Glimt	13	11-10	99.74%	69%	10%	49%	14%	3.8%	< 1%	< 1%
13	9	Roma	12	11-6	99.15%	73%	17%	75%	42%	23%	12%	6%
14	8	Porto	12	15-11	96.7%	68%	6%	75%	44%	26%	15%	8%
15	9	Olympiakos	12	7-5	98.1%	59%	5%	52%	19%	7%	2.1%	1.1%
16	11	Steaua	12	9-8	>99.99%	63%	11%	37%	7%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
17	9	Viktoria Plzen	12	13-16	95.9%	41%	3.0%	44%	14%	4.5%	1.3%	< 1%
18	8	St Gillis	11	7-6	89%	38%	1.2%	50%	20%	8%	3.0%	1.5%
19	8	Alkmaar	11	14-15	84%	31%	< 1%	38%	11%	3.6%	1.0%	< 1%
20	8	Fenerbahce	11	10-12	83%	29%	< 1%	46%	18%	8%	2.8%	1.4%
21	9	Ferencvaros	10	14-14	93%	36%	2.7%	27%	4.8%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
22	7	Midtjylland	10	7-10	61%	12%	< 1%	21%	5.0%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%
23	7	PAOK	9	11-9	58%	10%	< 1%	22%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
24	4	Slavia Praha	8	6-7	34%	< 1%	< 1%	18%	8%	3.3%	1.4%	< 1%
25	6	Hoffenheim	8	6-9	36%	3.7%	< 1%	14%	4.0%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
26	7	Braga	8	11-15	48%	7%	< 1%	21%	6%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Elfsborg	8	9-14	37%	2.5%	< 1%	9%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	4	Twente	7	10-11	29%	< 1%	< 1%	12%	3.5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	6	M Tel Aviv	7	9-16	26%	3.4%	< 1%	7%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	6	Besiktas	7	9-19	16%	< 1%	< 1%	3.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	4	Malmoe	6	8-14	6%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	2	Nice	6	8-15	2.7%	< 1%	< 1%	1.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Razgrad	6	5-13	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
34	3	Karabakh Agdam	6	7-18	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
35	2	RFS	2	6-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	10	7-7	13	14-12	16	18-6
5%	10	15-18	12	17-11	16	19-13
25%	9	8-9	12	9-7	15	13-5
50%	9	13-17	12	13-13	15	10-5
75%	8	12-10	11	16-13	14	18-8
95%	8	10-14	11	15-16	14	15-11
99%	8	9-15	11	8-11	14	8-6

 

CL: Eighteen teams clinched the playoff and two deciders in the final round

Eighteen teams have clinched a spot in the playoffs and nine teams are fighting over the remaining six slots. PSG and Stuttgart play an almost deciding last match; PSG need a point to clinch playoff, while Stuttgart clinch a slot if they win - or if they draw and Zagreb lose against Milan. Despite only having 8 points, Man City have it their own hands and win would secure a spot in the playoff since PSG and Stuttgart play. Brugge most likely clinch a spot with a draw against Man City or they can be helped by Milan and the match in Stuttgart does not finish with a draw.

Liverpool and Barcelona have secured a seeded spot in top-8.  16 points and a good goal difference will most likely suffice, so Arsenal, Inter, Atletico and Milan all have good chances to avoid the playoff round.

 
Clinching Scenarios

• Inter clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Monaco (89%)
• Arsenal clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Girona (78%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Bologna (78%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if Stuttgart and Paris SG do not draw  (76%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Brugge (71%)
• Paris SG clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Stuttgart (68%)
• Brugge clinch knockout stage if Milan draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb and Stuttgart and Paris SG do not draw  (62%)
• Atletico clinch Top8 if they win against Salzburg (61%)
• Milan clinch Top8 if they win against Dinamo Zagreb (61%)
• Stuttgart clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Paris SG and Milan draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (46%)
• Benfica clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Juventus (43%)
• Atalanta clinch Top8 if they win against Barcelona (30%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Liverpool	22	18-5	100%	100%	100%	100%	76%	52%	34%	17%
2	18	Barcelona	19	28-13	100%	100%	100%	100%	58%	28%	13%	6%
3	16	Arsenal	19	15-2	100%	100%	99.99%	>99.99%	71%	46%	28%	14%
4	16	Inter	19	10-1	100%	100%	97.7%	99.55%	71%	47%	29%	15%
5	15	Atletico	18	18-12	100%	100%	79%	92%	48%	21%	8%	4.2%
6	15	Milan	18	15-10	100%	100%	76%	90%	42%	17%	6%	3.0%
7	13	Leverkusen	16	15-7	100%	99.28%	77%	92%	57%	29%	14%	7%
8	13	Aston Villa	16	11-5	100%	91%	55%	77%	33%	11%	3.4%	1.7%
9	13	Lille	16	12-9	100%	81%	32%	68%	29%	10%	3.4%	1.7%
10	14	Atalanta	15	18-4	100%	100%	36%	80%	44%	23%	12%	6%
11	12	Dortmund	15	21-11	100%	91%	10%	58%	20%	7%	2.4%	1.2%
12	12	Bayern	15	20-11	100%	96.9%	7%	69%	32%	16%	8%	3.8%
13	12	Real Madrid	15	18-12	100%	73%	1.6%	72%	41%	24%	13%	7%
14	12	Juventus	15	10-5	100%	74%	< 1%	58%	24%	11%	4.2%	2.1%
15	10	Sporting	13	13-11	91%	32%	< 1%	47%	19%	7%	2.5%	1.2%
16	13	Feyenoord	13	18-17	100%	52%	12%	47%	15%	3.9%	< 1%	< 1%
17	13	Monaco	13	15-14	100%	43%	7%	48%	17%	5.0%	1.3%	< 1%
18	13	Brest	13	12-11	100%	49%	8%	40%	10%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%
19	11	PSV	12	13-10	>99.99%	28%	< 1%	47%	16%	6%	2.0%	< 1%
20	12	Celtic	12	12-12	100%	22%	< 1%	29%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Man City	11	18-15	71%	< 1%	< 1%	44%	23%	13%	7%	3.4%
22	10	Paris SG	11	12-10	83%	29%	< 1%	51%	26%	13%	6%	3.0%
23	10	Stuttgart	11	13-14	67%	7%	< 1%	24%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	11	Brugge	11	6-9	94%	12%	< 1%	31%	6%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%
25	10	Benfica	10	15-14	82%	18%	< 1%	35%	10%	3.4%	< 1%	< 1%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	11-20	13%	< 1%	< 1%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	7	Shakhtar	7	8-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	14-15	14	15-12	16	18-8
5%	11	13-14	14	12-10	16	13-4
25%	11	14-19	13	17-13	16	11-5
50%	10	14-13	13	15-12	16	15-11
75%	10	11-11	13	13-11	16	12-9
95%	10	13-16	13	17-17	15	21-12
99%	10	12-16	13	17-18	15	13-6

CL: Clinching scenarios for tonight's matches

Clinching Scenarios for tonight matches

• Real Madrid clinch knockout stage if they win against Salzburg (85%)
• Celtic clinch knockout stage if they win against Young Boys (71%)
• Benfica clinch knockout stage if they win against Barcelona (38%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they win against RB Leipzig (35%)
• Feyenoord clinch knockout stage if they win against Bayern (32%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Paris SG and Arsenal win against Dinamo Zagreb (28%)
• PSV clinch knockout stage if Paris SG draw against Man City (24%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	21	Liverpool	22	18-5	100%	100%	100%	100%	77%	53%	35%	17%
2	13	Arsenal	19	13-2	100%	99.85%	95%	98.8%	71%	45%	28%	14%
3	15	Barcelona	18	25-11	100%	100%	89%	96.4%	56%	27%	12%	6%
4	15	Atletico	18	18-12	100%	>99.99%	74%	90%	46%	20%	8%	4.0%
5	13	Inter	17	14-3	100%	98.8%	87%	97.2%	70%	46%	29%	14%
6	12	Bayern	16	23-11	100%	98.6%	67%	89%	50%	25%	12%	6%
7	13	Leverkusen	16	15-7	100%	98.3%	71%	90%	54%	27%	13%	6%
8	13	Aston Villa	16	11-5	100%	90%	44%	72%	29%	10%	2.9%	1.5%
9	12	Milan	16	16-11	>99.99%	92%	53%	79%	36%	14%	5.0%	2.5%
10	13	Brest	16	13-10	100%	84%	38%	60%	16%	3.5%	< 1%	< 1%
11	13	Lille	16	12-9	100%	79%	18%	62%	24%	8%	2.8%	1.4%
12	14	Atalanta	15	18-4	100%	99.98%	33%	79%	44%	23%	11%	6%
13	12	Dortmund	15	21-11	100%	90%	6%	56%	20%	7%	2.3%	1.2%
14	12	Juventus	15	10-5	100%	70%	< 1%	58%	25%	11%	4.3%	2.1%
15	9	Real Madrid	13	18-13	98.6%	61%	< 1%	70%	40%	23%	13%	6%
16	10	Sporting	13	14-11	97.9%	52%	10%	55%	22%	8%	2.9%	1.5%
17	13	Monaco	13	15-14	100%	40%	4.6%	44%	15%	4.4%	1.1%	< 1%
18	10	Benfica	13	12-12	95.3%	34%	5%	44%	15%	4.9%	1.5%	< 1%
19	11	PSV	12	13-10	99.99%	27%	< 1%	46%	17%	6%	2.0%	1.0%
20	9	Celtic	12	12-11	90%	19%	< 1%	26%	5%	1.1%	< 1%	< 1%
21	10	Feyenoord	12	16-17	86%	19%	3.0%	33%	9%	2.3%	< 1%	< 1%
22	8	Man City	11	18-12	85%	22%	< 1%	57%	31%	18%	9%	4.7%
23	10	Stuttgart	11	13-14	73%	5%	< 1%	25%	6%	1.6%	< 1%	< 1%
24	11	Brugge	11	6-9	95.4%	10%	< 1%	32%	7%	1.8%	< 1%	< 1%
25	7	Paris SG	10	9-8	61%	10%	< 1%	37%	17%	9%	3.9%	2.0%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	13-21	17%	< 1%	< 1%	1.7%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	4	Shakhtar	5	7-17	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	3	Girona	4	7-15	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Sparta Praha	4	9-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	12-11	14	20-9	17	12-3
5%	11	12-13	14	14-9	16	22-11
25%	11	8-13	14	11-10	16	11-3
50%	10	12-12	13	11-7	16	11-5
75%	10	11-13	13	14-12	16	14-10
95%	10	15-22	13	14-14	15	23-13
99%	9	11-14	13	16-20	15	11-5

 

CL: Liverpool can clinch a spot among the top-eight and other clinching scenarios.

 

Clinching Scenarios

• Liverpool clinch Top8 if they draw (or win) against Lille (87%)
• Real Madrid clinch knockout stage if they win against Salzburg (85%)
• Celtic clinch knockout stage if they win against Young Boys and Arsenal draw (or win) against Dinamo Zagreb (68%)
• Juventus clinch knockout stage if they draw (or win) against Brugge (64%)
• Monaco clinch knockout stage if they win against Aston Villa (46%)
• Benfica clinch knockout stage if they win against Barcelona (38%)
• Brugge clinch knockout stage if they win against Juventus (36%)
• Sporting clinch knockout stage if they win against RB Leipzig (35%)
• Feyenoord clinch knockout stage if they win against Bayern (32%)
• Man City clinch knockout stage if they win against Paris SG and Arsenal win against Dinamo Zagreb (28%)
• Barcelona clinch Top8 if they win against Benfica and Monaco draw (or win) against Aston Villa (26%)

Pos	Pts	Team	Pts	GD	Top 24	Top 16	Top 8	R16	QF	Semi	Final	Champ
1	18	Liverpool	22	18-5	100%	100%	>99.99%	>99.99%	76%	52%	34%	17%
2	13	Arsenal	19	13-2	100%	99.87%	91%	98.1%	70%	45%	28%	14%
3	15	Barcelona	18	25-11	100%	>99.99%	87%	95.7%	55%	26%	12%	6%
4	13	Inter	17	14-3	100%	99.06%	83%	96.4%	69%	45%	28%	14%
5	12	Bayern	16	23-11	100%	98.6%	63%	88%	49%	25%	12%	6%
6	13	Leverkusen	16	20-10	100%	98.9%	69%	90%	52%	26%	12%	6%
7	13	Aston Villa	16	12-5	100%	94%	53%	77%	31%	10%	3.2%	1.6%
8	12	Atletico	16	16-11	100%	91%	39%	76%	37%	16%	7%	3.3%
9	12	Milan	16	16-11	>99.99%	93%	48%	77%	34%	14%	4.8%	2.4%
10	13	Brest	16	13-10	100%	86%	33%	57%	15%	3.3%	< 1%	< 1%
11	13	Lille	16	12-10	100%	85%	26%	65%	26%	9%	3.0%	1.5%
12	12	Dortmund	15	23-10	100%	95.6%	45%	75%	31%	11%	3.6%	1.8%
13	11	Atalanta	14	19-6	>99.99%	90%	26%	76%	42%	23%	11%	6%
14	11	Juventus	14	12-6	99.98%	77%	21%	67%	31%	13%	5%	2.6%
15	9	Real Madrid	13	18-13	99.18%	62%	< 1%	71%	41%	24%	13%	7%
16	10	Sporting	13	14-11	99.20%	55%	7%	54%	22%	8%	2.9%	1.4%
17	10	Benfica	13	12-12	98.2%	35%	3.9%	45%	15%	5%	1.5%	< 1%
18	10	Monaco	13	13-14	97.4%	28%	2.3%	40%	12%	3.7%	< 1%	< 1%
19	9	Celtic	12	12-11	94%	21%	< 1%	27%	6%	1.3%	< 1%	< 1%
20	10	Feyenoord	12	16-17	94%	22%	2.0%	35%	9%	2.5%	< 1%	< 1%
21	8	Man City	11	18-12	90%	23%	< 1%	60%	34%	19%	10%	5%
22	8	PSV	11	12-10	79%	14%	< 1%	35%	13%	4.6%	1.6%	< 1%
23	10	Brugge	11	9-12	88%	15%	< 1%	30%	7%	2.0%	< 1%	< 1%
24	7	Paris SG	10	9-8	69%	11%	< 1%	41%	19%	10%	4.5%	2.2%
25	7	Stuttgart	10	14-16	67%	5%	< 1%	23%	5%	1.4%	< 1%	< 1%
26	8	Dinamo Zagreb	8	13-21	22%	< 1%	< 1%	2.2%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
27	3	Crvena Zvezda	6	12-22	1.9%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
28	2	Bologna	5	3-10	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
29	4	Shakhtar	5	7-17	1.0%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
30	3	Sturm Graz	4	5-12	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
31	3	Girona	4	8-16	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
32	4	Sparta Praha	4	9-22	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
33	3	Salzburg	3	4-21	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

Expected Requirement

	Top 24		Top 16		Top 8
	Pts	GD	Pts	GD	Pts	GD
1%	11	14-13	14	17-7	18	18-11
5%	11	12-14	14	14-9	17	15-5
25%	10	8-8	14	17-17	16	22-9
50%	10	19-23	13	17-14	16	12-4
75%	10	6-14	13	12-10	16	16-11
95%	9	13-19	13	16-20	15	16-4
99%	8	7-8	12	17-15	15	14-7