| Group A |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 100% | 6 | 16 | 19-3 | Real Madrid |
|
| 100% | 6 | 13 | 12-1 | Paris SG |
|
| 0% | 6 | 3 | 7-14 | Shakhtar |
|
| 0% | 6 | 3 | 1-21 | Malmoe |
|
Favorites Real Madrid and Paris SG qualified for the knockout stage.
| Group B |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 100% | 6 | 12 | 9-6 | Wolfsburg |
|
| 100% | 6 | 10 | 8-7 | PSV |
|
| 0% | 6 | 8 | 7-7 | Man United |
|
| 0% | 6 | 4 | 5-9 | CSKA Moskva |
|
This group was the only one still alive in terms of which teams pass
on to the knockout stage. And the evening did indeed turn out quite
exciting. Wolfsburg, Man United, and PSV started the evening with 91%,
62%, and 48% chance, respectively. Man U took the lead in the group
with an early goal bumping their chances to 76%, but Wolfsburg
equalized within a couple of minutes the standing were back on square
one. When Wolfsburg scored another goal ten minutes later they bumped
up from 91% to a 97% chance, while Man U now were struggling at 47% as
they needed either themselves or Moskva to score. Forty-five minutes
later, with a quarter remaining, the score was still 2-1 in Wolfsburg
and scoreless in Eindhoven, which meant, according to our estimations,
Wolfsburg now had a 99.8% chance, Man U were struggling at 28% and PSV
had 72%. In the 76th minute de Jong fouled inside the box and Moskva
converted the kick from 12 yards to a goal. Suddenly PSV were down to
14% and Man U flew up to 86%. Two minutes later PSV equalized through
de Jong gaining back PSV's chances to 76%. Man U, again needed to
score or rely on Moskva, which were trailing a win and ticket to
Europa League. Indeed, four minutes later Man U were helped by a
Wolfsburg own goal, which meant a draw and Man U were up 80%. But they
could not hold that for long, as two minutes later Wolfsburg scored
the winner, which means Man U were again down to 15% and when PSV
another two minutes later scored the group was settled and done. The
upset was reality and Man U is the biggest disappointment in the first
four groups.
| Group C |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 100% | 6 | 13 | 11-4 | Atletico |
|
| 100% | 6 | 10 | 10-8 | Benfica |
|
| 0% | 6 | 5 | 7-10 | Galatasaray |
|
| 0% | 6 | 4 | 5-11 | FK Astana |
|
Favorites Atletico Madrid and Benfica qualified for knockout stage.
| Group D |
| Chance | m | p | +/- |
| Key |
| 100% | 6 | 12 | 12-8 | Man City |
|
| 100% | 6 | 11 | 6-3 | Juventus |
|
| 0% | 6 | 6 | 8-11 | Sevilla |
|
| 0% | 6 | 5 | 8-12 | Gladbach |
|
This group was, by most, considered a three-horse race between Man
City, Sevilla, and Juventus. Man City and Juventus came out of the
dust alive.
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