Group D

England is out. Costa Rica is through and wins the group if they take point against England or Italy and Uruguay draw or have better goal difference than winner of Italy Uruguay. Italy and Uruguay play decider in which a draw gives Italy last slot in knock-out (60%). The model gives the following probabilities:

47% 1. Costa Rica 2. Italy
28% 1. Costa Rica 2. Uruguay
12% 1. Italy 2. Costa Rica
11% 1. Uruguay 2. Costa Rica