Group E

France almost through (99.9%). They'll fail if Switzerland and Ecuador win their matches and catch up on the goal difference, which means Ecuador would win with four goals (against France) and total win margin would be at least eight goals, so for example if both matches finish 4-0 would do it. Honduras need to win with at least three goals against Switzerland, and then France need to beat Ecuador and if Honduras (only!) wins with three France needs to win with goals margin. Honduras chances are estimated to between 1% and 2%. Most likely the second ticket is between Switzerland and Ecuador, and there it's easy. Switzerland need a better results against Honduras than what Ecuador achives against France. If both wins, Switzerland needs to win with two more goals than Ecuador does. Similarly in the other end: if both teams lose Ecuador can lose with two goals with no risk. If the loss is three goals or more, Honduras is invited to the equation. This gives Ecuador and Switzerland 54% and 45%, respectively.