Group F

Argentina advances to last 16 after Messi's last curl. They'll win the group if they at least draw last match against Nigeria (86%). Nigeria win the group if they defeat Argentina (14%). In case of a draw both teams qualify (17%). Iran's chance is to defeat a knocked out Bosnia & Herzegovina and that Argentina defeats Nigeria. If both matches end with a one-goal-margin wins Nigeria survives if the they score at least as many goals as Iran. This gives Iran a 19% chance to come 2nd and Nigeria a 80% chance to advance to next stage.

1.	Argentina	3-1	6
2.	Nigeria	1-0	4
3.	Iran	0-1	1