CL Match Day 2

A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	2	6	6-0	Real Madrid	99.5% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 91%
95%	2	6	5-0	Paris SG	98.6% if they draw (or win) against Shakhtar; otherwise 76%
6%	2	0	0-7	Shakhtar	25% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 2%
2%	2	0	0-4	Malmoe	8% if they win against Paris SG; otherwise 0.5%

The question mark in this group was whether Shakhtar would be able to challenge Paris. With Paris winning against Shakhtar away (well they play in Lviv) the answer seems to be no and this group looks almost closed already. Quite likely Real Madrid and Paris will qualify (>90%).

B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
25%	2	3	4-4	PSV	47% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 13%
52%	2	3	3-3	CSKA Moskva	73% if they win against Wolfsburg; otherwise 34%
56%	2	3	3-3	Man United	78% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 40%
67%	2	3	2-2	Wolfsburg	82% if they win against Man United; otherwise 46%

This was the most open groups beforehand and after two matches and with each team with a win and a loss, not much as changed: the group is still wide-open.

C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
95%	2	6	4-1	Benfica	99.94% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 90%
92%	2	3	3-2	Atletico	98% if they win against Galatasaray; otherwise 77%
11%	2	1	2-4	Galatasaray	28% if they win against Benfica; otherwise 3%
2%	2	1	2-4	FK Astana	27% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 1%

The least uncertain group upfront and it looks like the favourites, Atletico and Benfica, will do the expected and qualify (>85%).

D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
91%	2	6	4-1	Juventus	96% if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 75%
36%	2	3	3-3	Man City	75% if they win against Sevilla; otherwise 33%
62%	2	3	3-2	Sevilla	75% if they win against Man City; otherwise 30%
11%	2	0	1-5	Gladbach	17% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 2%

The most open group upfront with three equally good teams with 60% chance and a challenger in Gladbach. Juventus has won against both their greatest competitors, which means they must be favourites to win the group now. Very important matches between Sevilla and Man City in Match Day 3 and 4.

E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	2	4	3-2	Barcelona	98.8% if they win against BATE; otherwise 84%
79%	2	3	5-3	Leverkusen	84% if they win against Roma; otherwise 43%
15%	2	3	4-6	BATE	46% if they win against Leverkusen; otherwise 7%
18%	2	1	3-4	Roma	43% if they draw (or win) against Leverkusen; otherwise 6%

The champions, Barcelona, started with a draw away in Rome and managed to turn around their match against Leverkusen. Leverkusen have done what you can expect with three points against BATE and a loss away in Barcelona. Roma lost against BATE and need good results against Leverkusen in next two matches.

F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99%	2	6	8-0	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 97%
51%	2	3	3-5	Olympiakos	70% if they draw (or win) against Arsenal; otherwise 26%
26%	2	3	2-6	Dinamo Zagreb	63% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 16%
23%	2	0	3-5	Arsenal	46% if they win against Olympiakos; otherwise 6%

One of the given groups beforehand with an outstanding favourite in Bayern. Bayern have virtually already qualified (>99%). Arsenal has had the most negative start of all team with two losses against Zagreb and Olympiacos and decreased their chance from 73% to 23%. Currently Olympiacos looks like the favourite to grab the second spot in this group.

G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
53%	2	4	4-2	Dynamo Kyiv	78% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 36%
81%	2	4	4-3	Porto	97% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 65%
65%	2	3	5-2	Chelsea	80% if they draw (or win) against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 40%
0.9%	2	0	0-6	M Tel Aviv	4% if they win against Dynamo Kyiv; otherwise 0.2%

Chelsea and Porto favourites beforehand. Kyiv grabbed their chance with a win against Tel Aviv and a draw away against Porto. Chelsea lost away agsint Porto, which makes the matches between Chelsea and Kyiv and next rounds extra important.

H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
87%	2	6	5-3	Zenit	98.9% if they win against Lyon; otherwise 77%
89%	2	3	3-3	Valencia	95% if they draw (or win) against Lyon; otherwise 60%
20%	2	1	1-2	Lyon	45% if they win against Zenit; otherwise 9.4%
4%	2	1	2-3	Gent	13% if they win against Valencia; otherwise 1%

The two favourites, Valencia and Zenit, have done the expected while Lyon only drew against Gent in the first match.