Argentina won against Colombia giving them some safe space. Accoring to our model they have 95% chance to qualify for the world cup, which makes them favorites together with Brazil (99.9%) and Uruguay (97%).
In next round we'll have rematch of this year's Copa America final: Argentina vs Chile. Besides that we'll have a group final in Uruguay vs Brazil, and a very important match between Paraguay vs Ecuador, which probably is Paraguay's last chance, while if Ecuador win they are really becoming a contender.
| Win | Draw | Lose |
|
|
| Lose | Draw | Win |
|
| 2.6% | 0.5% | 0.13% | Paraguay | - | Ecuador | 25.9% | 35% | 54% |
|
| Group | m | +/- | points | avg. simulated p | Playoff | World Cup |
| Brazil | 12 | +18 | 27 | 37.6 | 99.9% | 99.9% |
| Uruguay | 12 | +13 | 23 | 32.6 | 97.7% | 96.9% |
| Ecuador | 12 | +6 | 20 | 26.9 | 42.4% | 40.0% |
| Argentina | 12 | +2 | 19 | 32.3 | 95.5% | 95.3% |
| -------------------- |
| Chile | 12 | +1 | 18 | 29.9 | 85.9% | 85.2% |
| ======== |
| Colombia | 12 | 0 | 18 | 29.3 | 76.6% | 75.0% |
| Paraguay | 12 | -6 | 15 | 20.5 | 1.3% | 1.1% |
| Peru | 12 | -6 | 11 | 19.3 | 0.71% | 0.64% |
| Bolivia | 12 | -13 | 11 | 13.3 | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Venezuela | 12 | -15 | 5 | 9.5 | - |
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