World Cup: South America

Chile lost at home against Paraguay with 3-0, Uruguay and Argentina drew in Montevideo making the race between these four teams even tighter. On Tuesday Paraguay are hosting Uruguay in a crucial game, particularly for Paraguay.


Important Matches

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
28.5%	7.9%	3.2%	Paraguay	-	Uruguay	92.0%	98.4%	99.9%	95.3123
0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	Bolivia	-	Chile	47.0%	60.0%	83.9%	58.351

Group	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Brazil	15	+27	36	40.9	100%	100%
Colombia	15	+3	25	30.4	97.3%	96.7%
Uruguay	15	+9	24	29.9	97.9%	97.1%
Argentina	15	+1	23	30.0	97.6%	97.5%
--------------------
Chile	15	-1	21	27.0	78.8%	77.2%
========
Paraguay	15	-5	21	24.5	14.6%	12.0%
Ecuador	15	+1	20	23.2	12.7%	11.5%
Peru	15	-5	18	20.8	1.1%	0.93%
Bolivia	15	-13	14	15.3	0.00%	0.00%
Venezuela	15	-17	7	9.2	-

World Cup: Europe groups A and B

In Europe, two groups played yesterday.

In Group A, France thrashed Netherlands with 4-0, and have 99% chance to reach Russia. In Sofia, Bulgaria won against Sweden making Bulgaria a contender in Group A, but with a tough schedule with matches against both Netherlands and France their predicted chance is only 0.87%.


 Group A

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
France	7	+10	16	23.9	99.9%	99%
--------------------
Sweden	7	+7	13	17.9	47.9%	21.3%
========
Bulgaria	7	-2	12	15.0	3.5%	0.87%
Netherlands	7	+3	10	17.0	34.2%	24.2%
Belarus	7	-8	5	7.1	-
Luxembourg	7	-10	4	4.9	-

 Most likely France will win the group and Sweden or Netherlands take the playoff spot.


In Group B, Switzerland, Portugal and Hungary all won. Hungary still have a theoretical chance, but it involves that Portugal lose against both Hungary and Switzerland and draw against Andorra. Most likely the group will be decided in October when Switzerland and Portugal play. Portugal will need to win that match to snatch the 1st spot and avoid playoff.


Group B

	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Playoff	World Cup
Switzerland	7	+12	21	25.7	100%	75.3%
--------------------
Portugal	7	+23	18	25.0	99.99%	89.5%
========
Hungary	7	+3	10	14.5	0.00%	0.00%
Faroe Islands	7	-12	5	8.5	-
Andorra	7	-14	4	4.6	-
Latvia	7	-12	3	8.4

World Cup: Asian Qualifications

South Korea had the chance to secure tickets to Russia with a win home against Iran but played 0-0.

Syria won (3-1) against Qatar and now have descent chance to finish second in the group.

China won against Uzbekistan, which means China still have a theoretical chance to reach Russia and Uzbekistan's chances decreased a lot.

Two important matches next week

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
93.2%	22.8%	3.0%	Uzbekistan	-	South Korea	50.6%	95.4%	100%	750.822
100%	100%	100%	Iran	-	Syria	3.4%	7.2%	59.3%	151.001

Group A	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Iran	9	+8	21	23.4	100%	100%	100%
South Korea	9	+1	14	15.5	96.3%	89.4%	82.3%
--------------------
Syria	9	+1	12	12.5	44.1%	20.1%	10.1%
========
Uzbekistan	9	-1	12	13.3	55.4%	45.4%	38.1%
China	9	-3	9	10.1	4.2%	2.0%	0.74%
Qatar	9	-6	7	8.6	-

South Korea need a win to secure 2nd spot and direct qualifications. If they draw they still finish 2nd if Iran take a point against Syria; otherwise they South Korea finish 3rd. If South Korea lose against Uzbekistan they cannot finish 2nd, but finish 3rd as long as Iran take point against Syria.


In Group B, Japan won against Australia and secured first spot in the group and tickets to Russia. Two important matches next week:

 Win

	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
81.5%	32.7%	19.3%	Saudi Arabia	-	Japan	100%	100%	100%	214.236
87.4%	67.6%	37.5%	Australia	-	Thailand	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	86.0071

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Japan	9	+11	20	21.7	100%	100%	100%
Saudi Arabia	9	+6	16	17.0	99.9%	55.6%	39.0%
--------------------
Australia	9	+4	16	18.4	99.9%	87.5%	80.0%
========
United Arab Em	9	-2	13	14.3	0.15%	0.06%	0.02%
Iraq	9	-2	8	9.4	-
Thailand	9	-17	2	2.4	-

Saudi and Australia fight about the second spot. If either team take more point in the last match they finish 2nd. If both matches are draws, Saudi take the second spot. If Australia win and Saudi win, goal difference decides, and there Saudi have a two-goal advantage. If Australia win with 3-0 against Thailand, Saudi need to win with at least 2-1. One-nil won't make since both teams then end on 17-10 in goal difference and Australia have a draw and a win against Saudi.

UAE still have a microscopic chance to finish 3rd (or even 2nd) but since they are trailing 6 goals in goal difference they need to thrash Iraq in the last match.

World Cup: UAE won against Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia took an early lead in Al Ain against UAE, but Mabkhout equalized immediately and in 2nd half Khalil scored the winner for UAE. It means that Saudi lost three important points in their hunt for a top-two position and direct qualification. It makes the match tomorrow (Thursday) between Japan and Australia extremely important. It also makes the match tomorrow (Thursday) between Japan and Australia even more important. The winner in that game secures qualification.

Matches Left

Win	Draw	Lose				Lose	Draw	Win	Information (mBit)
87.9%	23.6%	14.2%	Saudi Arabia	-	Japan	76.4%	100%	100%	366.826
100%	88.0%	84.5%	Japan	-	Australia	80.4%	94.6%	100%	135.641
93.4%	78.3%	58.7%	Australia	-	Thailand	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	61.1813

If Japan win

20 Japan
16 Saudi
16 Australia

Japan have secured qualification. Saudi play already qualified Japan and need as good as result as Australia get against Thailand. They have currently the same goal difference, so if both win Australia need to catch up on the goal difference deficit they got in their loss against Japan. If both draw Saudi secure qualification.

If Japan and Australia draw

+9 18 Japan      
+6 17 Australia
+6 16 Saudi

Japan then secure qualification if they (at least) draw the last match against Saudi. They can also come second if Australia lose against Thailand, or if Australia and Thailand draw while Japan lose with less than three goals.

Saudi secure qualification if they win against Japan, or if they draw and Australia lose against Thailand.

Australia secure qualification if they win against Thailand, or if they draw and Japan take point against Saudi, or if they draw and Japan lose with more than three goals, or if they lose and Japan win against Saudi.

If Australia win

19 Australia
17 Japan
16 Saudi 

Australia have secured qualification. Japan secure qualification if they (at least) draw against Saudi. Saudi need to win againt Japan.

Group B	m	+/-	points	avg. simulated p	Round 4	Playoff	World Cup
Japan	8	+9	17	20.6	100%	96.0%	93.7%
Saudi Arabia	9	+6	16	17.0	99.9%	51.2%	36.0%
--------------------
Australia	8	+6	16	19.4	99.9%	92.2%	88.1%
========
United Arab Em	9	-2	13	14.3	0.15%	0.05%	0.02%
Iraq	8	-3	5	7.7	-
Thailand	8	-16	2	4.0	-

CL: The Draw

Below are the groups ordered from easier to harder. Liverpool and Sevilla won the jackpot getting Spartak Moskva, clearly the weastest team from Seed Group 1. Dortmund got the worst draw with Real Madrid, the strongest team from Seed Group 1, and Tottenham, the strongest team from Seed Group 3.

Group E		+45%
Liverpool	87%	+26
Sevilla	80%	+18
Spartak Moskva	28%	-1
Maribor	5%	+2
===
Group G		+27%
Monaco	82%	+10
Porto	48%	+2
RB Leipzig	34%	+10
Besiktas	36%	+6
===
Group A		+22%
Man United	81%	+4
Benfica	63%	+6
CSKA Moskva	39%	+14
Basel	18%	-1
===
Group B		+5%
Bayern	94%	+6
Paris SG	81%	+9
Anderlecht	16%	-7
Celtic	10%	-2
===
Group F		-5%
Napoli	75%	+10
Man City	73%	-2
Shakhtar	41%	-10
Feyenoord	10%	-2
===
Group D		-22%
Barcelona	93%	+1
Juventus	84%	-1
Sporting	15%	-8
Olympiakos	8%	-14
===
Group C		-28%
Atletico	79%	-5
Chelsea	69%	-11
Roma	51%	-9
Qarabag	1%	-2
===
Group H		-44%
Real Madrid	94%	-3
Tottenham	56%	-11
Dortmund	47%	-24
APOEL	4%	-7
===

Team	Last 16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	93%	78%	61%	46%	30%
Barcelona	92%	72%	49%	32%	17%
Bayern	93%	62%	39%	22%	11%
Atletico	79%	52%	29%	14%	7%
Juventus	84%	53%	29%	15%	7%
Chelsea	68%	37%	18%	8%	3%
Man United	80%	39%	17%	6%	2%
Napoli	75%	38%	17%	6%	2%
Monaco	82%	40%	18%	7%	2%
Paris SG	80%	39%	17%	6%	2%
Tottenham	55%	29%	14%	5%	2%
Man City	72%	35%	15%	5%	2%
Liverpool	86%	39%	16%	5%	2%
Dortmund	46%	22%	9%	3%	1%
Sevilla	79%	35%	12%	3%	1%
Roma	50%	23%	9%	3%	1%
Benfica	62%	22%	7%	2%	< 1%
Porto	48%	14%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	41%	13%	4%	< 1%	< 1%
CSKA Moskva	38%	9%	2%	< 1%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	33%	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Besiktas	35%	8%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	28%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sporting	15%	3%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Anderlecht	15%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Basel	17%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Feyenoord	10%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Celtic	9%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
APOEL	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Maribor	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Qarabag	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%

CL - Group Stage

Later today the draw for the CL group stage takes place. To predict teams chances we simulated the draw and tournament 1,000,000 times. Table below shows our forecasts for how far each team proceeds in the tournament.

Team	Last 16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	96%	80%	62%	47%	32%
Barcelona	92%	70%	48%	30%	17%
Bayern	88%	60%	37%	21%	11%
Atletico	84%	55%	31%	15%	7%
Juventus	85%	53%	29%	15%	7%
Chelsea	80%	44%	22%	9%	3%
Tottenham	67%	35%	16%	6%	2%
Man United	76%	38%	17%	6%	2%
Paris SG	72%	36%	16%	6%	2%
Monaco	72%	36%	16%	6%	2%
Napoli	65%	33%	15%	5%	2%
Man City	75%	37%	16%	6%	2%
Dortmund	70%	33%	14%	5%	1%
Liverpool	60%	28%	11%	4%	1%
Roma	59%	27%	11%	3%	1%
Sevilla	62%	27%	9%	2%	< 1%
Benfica	57%	21%	7%	1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	51%	17%	4%	1%	< 1%
Porto	46%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
CSKA Moskva	25%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Besiktas	29%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sporting	23%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	23%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	29%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Anderlecht	22%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	21%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Basel	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Feyenoord	12%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Celtic	11%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
APOEL	10%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Maribor	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Qarabag	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%