CL - Group Stage

Later today the draw for the CL group stage takes place. To predict teams chances we simulated the draw and tournament 1,000,000 times. Table below shows our forecasts for how far each team proceeds in the tournament.

Team	Last 16	QF	SF	Final	Champion
Real Madrid	96%	80%	62%	47%	32%
Barcelona	92%	70%	48%	30%	17%
Bayern	88%	60%	37%	21%	11%
Atletico	84%	55%	31%	15%	7%
Juventus	85%	53%	29%	15%	7%
Chelsea	80%	44%	22%	9%	3%
Tottenham	67%	35%	16%	6%	2%
Man United	76%	38%	17%	6%	2%
Paris SG	72%	36%	16%	6%	2%
Monaco	72%	36%	16%	6%	2%
Napoli	65%	33%	15%	5%	2%
Man City	75%	37%	16%	6%	2%
Dortmund	70%	33%	14%	5%	1%
Liverpool	60%	28%	11%	4%	1%
Roma	59%	27%	11%	3%	1%
Sevilla	62%	27%	9%	2%	< 1%
Benfica	57%	21%	7%	1%	< 1%
Shakhtar	51%	17%	4%	1%	< 1%
Porto	46%	13%	3%	< 1%	< 1%
CSKA Moskva	25%	6%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Besiktas	29%	7%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Sporting	23%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
RB Leipzig	23%	5%	1%	< 1%	< 1%
Spartak Moskva	29%	5%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Anderlecht	22%	4%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Olympiakos	21%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Basel	19%	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Feyenoord	12%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Celtic	11%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
APOEL	10%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Maribor	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
Qarabag	3%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%