CL: Match Day 3

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.8%	3	9	8-1	Man United	qualified if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 98.8%
78%	3	6	7-3	Basel	96% if they draw (or win) against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 46%
20%	3	3	3-7	CSKA Moskva	50% if they win against Basel; otherwise 3%
2%	3	0	1-8	Benfica	6% if they win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 0%

Man United won and have almost clinched advancement to playoff round. Basel took an important win against Moskva and since head-to-head matches decide in case of equal points, the late 2-0 goal by Basel can turn out very important in the end.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	3	9	12-0	Paris SG
98.2%	3	6	6-3	Bayern	qualified if they draw (or win) against Celtic; otherwise 87%
2%	3	3	3-8	Celtic	13% if they win against Bayern; otherwise 0%
0%	3	0	0-10	Anderlecht

This group is in principle already determined.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
90%	3	7	10-4	Chelsea	99.3% if they draw (or win) against Atletico; otherwise 71%
70%	3	5	5-4	Roma	96% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 52%
39%	3	2	1-2	Atletico	59% if they win against Roma; otherwise 8%
0.1%	3	1	1-7	Qarabag	2% if they win against Atletico; otherwise 0%

Atletico failed winning away against Qarabag and their chances fell down to below 40%. Chelsea and Roma drew 3-3 giving both teams an important point. Group is still wide open between the three teams.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	3	9	7-1	Barcelona
91%	3	6	4-4	Juventus	99.5% if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 62%
8%	3	3	4-5	Sporting	37% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0.1%
0.6%	3	0	3-8	Olympiakos	3% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0%

Barcelona can only miss this in theory. Juventus got a crucial winner in 84th against Sporting, which means Sporting has to beat Juventus in the return in Portugal.

Here are the likely match-ups in round of 16:

Winner \ Runner-up

Man

Barc

Besi

Man

Pari

Chel

Live

Real

Tott

Sevi

Baye

Roma

Atle

Shak

Spar

Juve

Port

Napo

Mona

Base

RB L

CSKA

Spor

Mari

Celt

Olym

Qara

Feye

Dort

Benf

Total

Man United

2%

1%

2%

7%

6%

12%

9%

4%

8%

5%

13%

5%

5%

3%

4%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

96%

Barcelona

<1%

1%

2%

2%

4%

6%

13%

9%

7%

6%

4%

4%

4%

2%

9%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

88%

Besiktas

<1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

5%

5%

11%

4%

7%

6%

3%

5%

3%

8%

3%

7%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

86%

Man City

1%

1%

2%

6%

5%

10%

7%

4%

4%

11%

4%

2%

10%

4%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

83%

Paris SG

<1%

1%

1%

2%

3%

5%

5%

11%

4%

5%

3%

5%

3%

7%

3%

3%

7%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

80%

Chelsea

1%

1%

2%

5%

4%

8%

5%

4%

8%

4%

3%

2%

8%

3%

2%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

68%

Liverpool

1%

1%

1%

4%

7%

5%

3%

5%

7%

3%

3%

2%

6%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

58%

Real Madrid

<1%

1%

2%

1%

3%

4%

6%

4%

4%

2%

6%

2%

2%

1%

6%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

57%

Tottenham

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

4%

3%

2%

3%

2%

5%

2%

2%

1%

4%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

42%

Sevilla

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

4%

3%

2%

2%

3%

1%

1%

<1%

3%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

30%

Bayern

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

19%

Roma

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

2%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

18%

Atletico

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

2%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

13%

Shakhtar

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

11%

Spartak Mosk

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

11%

Juventus

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

10%

Porto

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

6%

Napoli

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

5%

Monaco

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

Basel

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

RB Leipzig

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

3%

CSKA Moskva

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Sporting

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Maribor

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Celtic

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Total

3%

11%

12%

13%

19%

20%

28%

41%

55%

34%

78%

55%

23%

53%

36%

79%

37%

32%

21%

74%

29%

19%

8%

<1%

1%

<1%

<1%

<1%

2%

2%