CL: Match Day 4

Five team: Man United, PSG, Bayern, Man City, and Tottenham clinched spots in knockout stage.

Group A
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	10-1	Man United
52%	4	6	8-5	Basel	85% if Benfica win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 35%
47%	4	6	5-8	CSKA Moskva	65% if they draw (or win) against Benfica; otherwise 15%
0.3%	4	0	1-10	Benfica

Moskva took their chances and won against Basel.

Group B
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	17-0	Paris SG
100%	4	9	8-4	Bayern
0%	4	3	4-10	Celtic
0%	4	0	0-15	Anderlecht

Group B is closed.

Group C
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
98%	4	8	8-4	Roma	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 89%
94%	4	7	10-7	Chelsea	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 79%
8%	4	3	2-3	Atletico	24% if they win against Chelsea; otherwise 0%
0.3%	4	2	2-8	Qarabag	4% if they win against Roma; otherwise 0%

Atletico failed to win against Qarabag and are therefore in trouble. Roma and Chelsea clinch group-stage spot, if they take two points against Qarabag and Atletico.

Group D
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.3%	4	10	7-1	Barcelona	qualified if they draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 91%
98.2%	4	7	5-5	Juventus	99.8% if Barcelona win against Sporting; otherwise 92%
2%	4	4	5-6	Sporting	24% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0.4%
0.2%	4	1	3-8	Olympiakos	1% if they win against Juventus; otherwise 0%

Barcelona has virtually clinched qualification and only need another point in two last matches. Juventus won against Sporting and nearly clinched the second spot.

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
92%	4	8	13-3	Liverpool	99.7% if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 36%
87%	4	7	8-8	Sevilla	98.2% if they win against Maribor; otherwise 66%
22%	4	5	8-5	Spartak Moskva	92% if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 11%
0%	4	1	1-14	Maribor

Maribor are out while other three teams fight about two spots.

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	12	12-3	Man City
89%	4	9	7-5	Shakhtar	qualified if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 66%
11%	4	3	7-9	Napoli	34% if Man City win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%
0%	4	0	3-12	Feyenoord

Man City clinched advancement with a win against Napoli. For Napoli the loss means they are in trouble and need to win the remaining two matches to qualify. For Shakhtar another point is sufficient.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
99.6%	4	10	8-3	Besiktas	qualified if Monaco draw (or win) against RB Leipzig; otherwise 97%
69%	4	6	9-7	Porto	94% if they draw (or win) against Monaco; otherwise 34%
11%	4	4	5-8	RB Leipzig	35% if they draw (or win) against Monaco; otherwise 0%
20%	4	2	3-7	Monaco	48% if they win against Porto; otherwise 0%

Group G is still very open. Besiktas only needs one more point, while Porto, Leipzig and Monaco are very open.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	4	10	10-2	Tottenham
99.3%	4	7	8-5	Real Madrid	qualified if they draw (or win) against Dortmund; otherwise 93%
0.6%	4	2	3-8	Dortmund	6% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%
0.1%	4	2	2-8	APOEL	1% if they win against Real Madrid; otherwise 0%

Tottenham clinched group stage with their win against Real Madrid. Real Madrid have virtually secured group stage as well but need a draw against Dortmund or a win against APOEL.