CL: Match Day 5

Group E
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
88%	5	9	16-6	Liverpool	qualified if they draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 12%
98.4%	5	8	11-11	Sevilla	qualified if Liverpool draw (or win) against Spartak Moskva; otherwise 88%
14%	5	6	9-6	Spartak Moskva	qualified if they win against Liverpool; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	2-15	Maribor

Liverpool and Sevilla clinch qualification if Liverpool take point against Moskva. If Moskva win against Liverpool, Moskva pass Liverpool in head-to-head. If Sevilla draw so we get three teams on 9 points, we gethead-to-head table:

7p Moskva
5p Sevilla    
3p Liverpool

Group F
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	15	13-3	Man City
77%	5	9	7-8	Shakhtar	qualified if they draw (or win) against Man City; otherwise 43%
23%	5	6	10-9	Napoli	57% if Man City win against Shakhtar; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	3-13	Feyenoord

Napoli clinch qualification if they win against Feyernord and Man City win against Shakhtar.

Group G
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	9-4	Besiktas
56%	5	7	10-8	Porto	qualified if they win against Monaco; otherwise 33%
44%	5	7	9-9	RB Leipzig	67% if Monaco draw (or win) against Porto; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	4-11	Monaco

Porto need to take as many points as Leipzig do.

Group H
Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	13	12-3	Tottenham
100%	5	10	14-5	Real Madrid
0%	5	2	4-10	Dortmund
0%	5	2	2-14	APOEL

Tottenham have won the group. Real Madrid have clinched qualification. Dortmund and APOEL fight about third place Europa Leage spot.

Table showing probability for different matchups in round of 16

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Barc	Pari	Live	Chel	Roma	Sevi	Baye	Juve	Spar	Atle	Base	Benf	CSKA	Qara	Spor	Olym	Real	Shak	Napo	Port	RB L	Total
Besiktas	<1%	1%	1%	1%	10%	6%	12%	10%	12%	1%	1%	6%	<1%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	15%	9%	2%			100%
Man City		1%	1%			7%	14%	11%	14%	1%	1%	7%	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%	17%			7%	6%	100%
Tottenham		1%	1%			7%	14%	12%	14%	1%	1%	7%	<1%	6%	<1%	<1%	<1%		11%	3%	8%	6%	100%
Man United		1%	1%			6%	14%	12%	14%	1%	1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	17%	11%	3%	7%	6%	99%
Barcelona	<1%		2%	2%	14%	9%		13%		1%		8%	<1%	7%	<1%				12%	3%	8%	7%	90%
Paris SG	<1%	<1%		1%	9%	6%	10%		10%	<1%	1%	5%	<1%	4%	<1%	<1%	<1%	13%	8%	2%	5%	4%	86%
Liverpool		1%	1%			5%		9%	11%		1%	6%	<1%	5%	<1%	<1%	<1%	13%	8%	2%	6%	5%	79%
Chelsea		<1%	1%				7%	6%	6%	<1%		3%	<1%	3%		<1%	<1%	8%	5%	1%	3%	3%	53%
Roma	<1%	<1%	1%	1%			7%	5%		<1%		3%	<1%	3%		<1%	<1%	8%	5%		4%	3%	45%
Sevilla	<1%		<1%		2%	1%		1%	2%			1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	<1%		1%	<1%	1%	1%	14%
Bayern	<1%	<1%		<1%	1%	1%	1%		1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	2%	1%	<1%	<1%		13%
Juventus	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%		1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%			1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	9%
Spartak Mosk		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	5%
Atletico			<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%
Basel				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%							<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	<1%	8%	13%	7%	40%	52%	83%	86%	89%	8%	7%	52%	<1%	46%	<1%	2%	<1%	100%	78%	21%	56%	43%