CL: Match Day 5

After five matches we have three teams that have clinched group win: Tottenham, Barcelona and Man City. We have additional six teams that have clinched a place in round of 16: Man United, Paris SG, Bayern, Chelsea, Besiktas, and Real Madrid. Thirteen teams fight about the remaining 7 places in second round.


Group A

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	12	10-2	Man United
75%	5	9	9-5	Basel	qualified if Man United win against CSKA Moskva; otherwise 23%
25%	5	9	7-8	CSKA Moskva	77% if they draw (or win) against Man United; otherwise 0%
0%	5	0	1-12	Benfica

Basel scored a very important goal in the last minutes against Man United. Basel play Benfica in last match away while United host Moskva.

If Basel win and Moskva win we have three teams on 12 points and goal difference in head-to-head matches will decide:

Man United +5
Basel -1
Moskva -4

If Basel and Moskva don't win but take same number of points (both draw or lose), Basel come second on better result in head-to-head.

Group B

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	15	24-1	Paris SG
100%	5	12	10-5	Bayern
0%	5	3	5-17	Celtic
0%	5	0	1-17	Anderlecht

Bayern and Paris have clinched spot in round of 16. Bayern need to win with 4-0 in the last match against PSG to win the group.

Group C

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	10	14-7	Chelsea
94%	5	8	8-6	Roma	qualified if they win against Qarabag; otherwise 69%
6%	5	6	4-3	Atletico	31% if Qarabag draw (or win) against Roma; otherwise 0%
0%	5	2	2-12	Qarabag

Chelsea have clineched spot in knockout stage. Atletico need to win away against Chelsea while Roma do not win against Qarabag.

Group D

Chance	m	p	+/-		Key
100%	5	11	7-1	Barcelona
97%	5	8	5-5	Juventus	qualified if Barcelona draw (or win) against Sporting; otherwise 57%
3%	5	7	8-7	Sporting	43% if they win against Barcelona; otherwise 0%
0%	5	1	4-11	Olympiakos

Barcelona have won the group. Sporting can steal the second spot from Juve if they beat Barcelona and Juventus fail to win against Olymoiakos.

Winner \ Runner-up	Man	Pari	Live	Chel	Roma	Sevi	Baye	Spar	CSKA	Base	Atle	Juve	Spor	Port	RB L	Napo	Shak	Real	Total
Tottenham		1%			9%	14%	13%	1%	3%	10%	1%	15%	<1%	8%	5%	2%	11%		100%
Besiktas	<1%	1%	1%	6%	8%	13%	11%	<1%	3%	9%	1%	13%	<1%			2%	10%	15%	99%
Barcelona	<1%	1%	2%	10%	13%		16%	1%	4%	13%				10%	7%	3%	14%		100%
Man City		1%			8%	14%	12%	1%	3%	10%	1%	14%	<1%	7%	5%			17%	100%
Man United		1%			8%	14%	12%	1%			1%	14%	<1%	8%	5%	2%	11%	17%	99%
Paris SG	<1%		1%	6%	8%	12%		<1%	2%	8%	1%	12%	<1%	6%	4%	2%	9%	14%	91%
Liverpool		1%			7%		10%		2%	8%	<1%	12%	<1%	6%	4%	2%	9%	14%	84%
Chelsea		<1%				10%	9%	<1%	2%	7%		10%	<1%	5%	4%	2%	7%	12%	74%
Roma	<1%	<1%	<1%			4%	3%	<1%	<1%	3%			<1%	2%	1%		3%	4%	25%
Sevilla	<1%	<1%		1%	1%		1%		<1%	1%		1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%	1%		12%
Bayern	<1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	1%		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	1%	<1%	<1%		<1%	<1%	1%	8%
Spartak Mosk		<1%		<1%	<1%		<1%			<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	3%
CSKA Moskva		<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%				<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%	<1%
Total	<1%	8%	5%	25%	67%	86%	91%	7%	24%	75%	7%	96%	3%	59%	40%	19%	80%	99%