As expected Liverpool won against Watford are now having the same average number of points as Tottenham in our random simulations. Chelsea are trailing behind more than 4 points on average:
Expected Outcome
|
| Team | Points | Expected +/- | Champ% | Top4% |
| Man City | 98 | 104-28 | 100 | 100 |
|
| Man United | 81 | 75-31 | 0.0121 | 98.6 |
|
| Tottenham | 76.5 | 75-34 | 0.0001 | 84.7 |
|
| Liverpool | 76.5 | 87-42 | 0 | 87.6 |
|
| Chelsea | 72.1 | 69-35 | 0 | 29.1 |
|
| Arsenal | 62.9 | 70-50 | 0 | 0.064 |
|
| Man United 99.7% if they take at least 11 (of 24) more points, otherwise 79% |
| Man United 99.89% if they take at least 12 (of 24) more points, otherwise 86% |
| Man United 99.96% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 90% |
| Tottenham 94% if they take at least 13 (of 24) more points, otherwise 43% |
| Tottenham 97% if they take at least 14 (of 24) more points, otherwise 53% |
| Tottenham 98.3% if they take at least 15 (of 24) more points, otherwise 62% |
| Liverpool 96% if they take at least 11 (of 21) more points, otherwise 50% |
| Liverpool 97% if they take at least 12 (of 21) more points, otherwise 60% |
| Liverpool 98.6% if they take at least 13 (of 21) more points, otherwise 68% |
| Chelsea 55% if they take at least 17 (of 24) more points, otherwise 5.8% |
| Chelsea 64% if they take at least 18 (of 24) more points, otherwise 9.2% |
| Chelsea 73% if they take at least 19 (of 24) more points, otherwise 13% |
| Arsenal 1.1% if they take at least 21 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.003% |
| Arsenal 2.1% if they take at least 22 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.01% |
| Arsenal 6.6% if they take at least 23 (of 24) more points, otherwise 0.03% |
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