Tottenham won the important match against Chelsea. Chelsea still have a chance to finish top 4, but they will need almost a perfect finish of the season. The also need that one of the top 4 teams start losing matches. Man United almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 8p in remaining 7 matches. Tottenham almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 11p in remaining 7 matches. Liverpool almost certainly finish top 4, if they take 9p in remaining 6 matches.
| Expected Outcome |
| Team | Points | Expected +/- | Champ% | Top4% |
| Man City | 99.1 | 105-28 | 100 | 100 |
|
| Man United | 81.5 | 74-31 | 0.0018 | 99.5 |
|
| Liverpool | 77.6 | 87-40 | 0 | 95.7 |
|
| Tottenham | 78.4 | 77-33 | 0 | 97.1 |
|
| Chelsea | 70.4 | 68-37 | 0 | 7.62 |
|
| Arsenal | 63.7 | 71-49 | 0 | 0.0409 |
|
| Man United have clinched CL, if they take 10 (of 21) more points |
| Man United have more than 99% chance, if they take 9 (of 21) more points |
| Man United have more than 95% chance, if they take 8 (of 21) more points |
| Man United have more than 90% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points |
| Man United have more than 50% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points |
| Man United have more than 10% chance, if they take 1 (of 21) more points |
| Liverpool have clinched CL, if they take 12 (of 18) more points |
| Liverpool have more than 99.9% chance, if they take 11 (of 18) more points |
| Liverpool have more than 95% chance, if they take 9 (of 18) more points |
| Liverpool have more than 50% chance, if they take 5 (of 18) more points |
| Liverpool have more than 10% chance, if they take 2 (of 18) more points |
| Liverpool have more than 5% chance, if they take 1 (of 18) more points |
| Tottenham have clinched CL, if they take 14 (of 21) more points |
| Tottenham have more than 99% chance, if they take 13 (of 21) more points |
| Tottenham have more than 95% chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points |
| Tottenham have more than 50% chance, if they take 7 (of 21) more points |
| Tottenham have more than 10% chance, if they take 3 (of 21) more points |
| Chelsea have more than 50% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points |
| Chelsea have more than 10% chance, if they take 18 (of 21) more points |
| Chelsea have more than 5% chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points |
| Chelsea have more than 1% chance, if they take 15 (of 21) more points |
| Chelsea have chance, if they take 11 (of 21) more points |
| Arsenal have more than 1% chance, if they take 21 (of 21) more points |
| Arsenal have chance, if they take 17 (of 21) more points |
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