World Cup: Group A

Here are the predictions for Group A based on 1,000,000 simulations.



Group A

	Pld	GF	GA	GD	Pts	Last 16	Group Winner
Uruguay	0	0	0	0	0	84%	56%
Russia	0	0	0	0	0	66%	29%
Egypt	0	0	0	0	0	31%	10%
Saudi Arabia	0	0	0	0	0	20%	5%

uncertainty: 81%

Table below shows how countries chances to reach last 16 depend on results in first matches.

Rus - Sau		Egypt - Uruguay
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Uru	36%	42%	46%	50%	50%	49%	75%	76%	76%	78%	93%	93%	94%	95%	95%	96%
	Rus	78%	78%	78%	79%	79%	79%	81%	80%	80%	81%	84%	84%	83%	87%	86%	87%
	Egy	79%	74%	70%	65%	65%	64%	36%	36%	37%	34%	18%	18%	19%	13%	14%	13%
	Sau	7%	6%	6%	6%	7%	8%	8%	7%	8%	7%	5%	5%	4%	5%	5%	5%
3-1	Uru	40%	45%	43%	51%	50%	51%	76%	77%	76%	76%	92%	92%	93%	94%	94%	96%
	Rus	74%	74%	77%	75%	76%	78%	79%	79%	79%	79%	82%	81%	81%	84%	84%	85%
	Egy	77%	73%	71%	66%	66%	63%	36%	37%	37%	37%	18%	20%	19%	15%	16%	13%
	Sau	9%	7%	9%	8%	8%	9%	8%	7%	7%	8%	7%	6%	7%	6%	6%	6%
2-0	Uru	38%	43%	45%	51%	53%	51%	75%	76%	77%	77%	92%	92%	93%	95%	95%	96%
	Rus	76%	77%	74%	76%	74%	77%	79%	79%	80%	78%	82%	81%	81%	83%	82%	85%
	Egy	77%	73%	73%	66%	66%	65%	37%	36%	36%	38%	20%	20%	21%	16%	17%	14%
	Sau	9%	6%	7%	7%	7%	7%	9%	8%	7%	7%	7%	6%	5%	6%	6%	6%
3-2	Uru	38%	43%	45%	50%	51%	49%	75%	75%	77%	74%	92%	91%	91%	95%	94%	95%
	Rus	71%	74%	72%	70%	73%	73%	79%	78%	78%	78%	80%	79%	77%	80%	81%	81%
	Egy	81%	72%	74%	68%	67%	67%	36%	36%	35%	36%	19%	20%	21%	17%	17%	14%
	Sau	11%	11%	9%	11%	10%	12%	9%	10%	10%	12%	10%	10%	10%	9%	9%	9%
2-1	Uru	42%	46%	44%	54%	52%	51%	76%	76%	76%	77%	92%	92%	92%	94%	95%	96%
	Rus	69%	72%	72%	68%	72%	73%	79%	78%	78%	75%	80%	78%	76%	79%	78%	81%
	Egy	79%	73%	72%	68%	67%	64%	36%	36%	37%	38%	19%	21%	23%	17%	18%	15%
	Sau	11%	9%	12%	10%	10%	12%	10%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%	9%	8%
1-0	Uru	38%	45%	46%	53%	53%	53%	76%	77%	77%	79%	92%	93%	93%	94%	95%	96%
	Rus	74%	69%	72%	69%	70%	69%	77%	77%	77%	77%	78%	76%	75%	79%	78%	81%
	Egy	76%	76%	73%	67%	68%	66%	37%	37%	37%	37%	22%	23%	23%	18%	18%	15%
	Sau	11%	10%	10%	10%	9%	11%	10%	9%	9%	7%	9%	8%	9%	8%	9%	8%
0-0	Uru	52%	51%	49%	54%	55%	55%	78%	80%	80%	77%	92%	93%	92%	94%	94%	95%
	Rus	49%	48%	50%	49%	47%	49%	53%	53%	49%	57%	57%	56%	57%	58%	56%	59%
	Egy	79%	78%	79%	75%	75%	74%	43%	45%	47%	44%	25%	26%	25%	23%	24%	23%
	Sau	21%	23%	22%	22%	23%	22%	26%	23%	24%	22%	25%	24%	26%	25%	26%	23%
1-1	Uru	47%	52%	50%	54%	53%	52%	76%	78%	80%	80%	93%	93%	93%	94%	94%	94%
	Rus	47%	50%	51%	47%	50%	51%	55%	53%	53%	51%	58%	57%	56%	59%	59%	59%
	Egy	81%	74%	75%	75%	74%	72%	41%	44%	45%	46%	24%	25%	25%	23%	22%	21%
	Sau	25%	24%	24%	24%	24%	25%	27%	25%	22%	23%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	26%
2-2	Uru	45%	51%	50%	52%	51%	52%	76%	77%	78%	79%	91%	92%	93%	94%	94%	94%
	Rus	49%	51%	50%	50%	51%	51%	56%	55%	53%	50%	60%	58%	58%	58%	59%	59%
	Egy	81%	77%	76%	74%	73%	74%	40%	43%	46%	46%	22%	24%	25%	23%	23%	21%
	Sau	24%	21%	25%	24%	25%	23%	28%	26%	23%	25%	26%	26%	24%	24%	24%	26%
3-3	Uru	35%	46%	44%	49%	50%	52%	73%	75%	78%	79%	92%	92%	94%	94%	94%	94%
	Rus	64%	57%	56%	51%	53%	52%	55%	58%	57%	49%	59%	58%	58%	59%	59%	59%
	Egy	76%	74%	75%	79%	71%	70%	41%	41%	39%	51%	23%	25%	22%	21%	23%	23%
	Sau	25%	23%	26%	21%	25%	27%	30%	26%	26%	21%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%	25%
0-1	Uru	47%	51%	48%	58%	56%	56%	74%	78%	75%	78%	91%	92%	92%	94%	94%	95%
	Rus	29%	25%	28%	25%	27%	25%	25%	25%	25%	23%	30%	29%	26%	30%	28%	30%
	Egy	80%	74%	77%	72%	70%	68%	46%	43%	44%	44%	26%	27%	30%	24%	25%	21%
	Sau	43%	50%	47%	45%	48%	50%	55%	54%	56%	54%	53%	52%	51%	53%	53%	53%
1-2	Uru	44%	50%	48%	56%	55%	56%	76%	76%	76%	81%	90%	91%	91%	93%	94%	95%
	Rus	27%	27%	28%	27%	26%	27%	25%	27%	26%	24%	31%	31%	28%	31%	31%	32%
	Egy	82%	77%	72%	71%	69%	69%	45%	43%	46%	41%	25%	27%	27%	24%	23%	20%
	Sau	47%	46%	51%	46%	50%	48%	55%	55%	52%	55%	54%	51%	53%	52%	53%	54%
2-3	Uru	45%	49%	47%	52%	56%	51%	77%	75%	75%	76%	89%	91%	90%	92%	93%	93%
	Rus	31%	26%	29%	29%	28%	31%	27%	28%	27%	29%	32%	30%	29%	30%	31%	33%
	Egy	81%	75%	73%	70%	68%	66%	41%	41%	43%	39%	24%	28%	28%	22%	21%	19%
	Sau	43%	49%	51%	48%	49%	52%	56%	56%	55%	57%	55%	52%	53%	56%	55%	55%
0-2	Uru	43%	52%	50%	59%	51%	55%	75%	75%	74%	73%	91%	92%	90%	93%	94%	95%
	Rus	23%	24%	25%	21%	24%	21%	23%	24%	23%	26%	23%	23%	24%	25%	24%	25%
	Egy	84%	71%	73%	71%	72%	69%	45%	43%	45%	49%	26%	25%	28%	21%	24%	20%
	Sau	51%	53%	52%	49%	53%	55%	57%	58%	57%	52%	61%	59%	58%	61%	58%	60%
1-3	Uru	43%	51%	51%	54%	52%	57%	74%	74%	76%	81%	91%	89%	90%	93%	94%	92%
	Rus	27%	25%	23%	20%	22%	23%	26%	23%	21%	20%	24%	25%	25%	26%	25%	26%
	Egy	78%	73%	73%	73%	70%	66%	42%	46%	45%	41%	27%	26%	26%	21%	23%	17%
	Sau	52%	51%	53%	54%	56%	54%	59%	58%	59%	59%	58%	60%	58%	61%	59%	64%
0-3	Uru	41%	51%	49%	53%	52%	53%	78%	78%	76%	80%	91%	92%	90%	93%	93%	94%
	Rus	31%	20%	18%	25%	20%	24%	20%	20%	21%	14%	21%	19%	21%	20%	18%	18%
	Egy	73%	70%	75%	64%	69%	67%	42%	44%	45%	48%	25%	26%	25%	21%	21%	22%
	Sau	55%	59%	58%	58%	59%	55%	61%	58%	58%	57%	64%	64%	65%	66%	67%	66%

Table below shows how countries' chances to win the group depend on results in first matches

Rus - Sau		Egypt - Uruguay
		3-0	3-1	2-0	3-2	2-1	1-0	0-0	1-1	2-2	3-3	0-1	1-2	2-3	0-2	1-3	0-3
3-0	Uru	7%	12%	13%	17%	16%	16%	38%	40%	38%	43%	57%	58%	58%	60%	62%	64%
	Rus	51%	54%	54%	54%	55%	54%	50%	49%	49%	47%	40%	39%	39%	38%	36%	34%
	Egy	41%	33%	32%	29%	29%	29%	11%	10%	12%	10%	2%	2%	2%	< 1%	1%	< 1%
	Sau	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	1%	1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3-1	Uru	9%	15%	13%	20%	17%	18%	40%	40%	39%	39%	58%	59%	61%	63%	64%	68%
	Rus	48%	47%	54%	48%	51%	52%	47%	46%	47%	48%	38%	37%	35%	35%	34%	31%
	Egy	41%	36%	32%	30%	31%	29%	11%	12%	12%	12%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	< 1%
	Sau	1%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%	< 1%	1%	< 1%
2-0	Uru	10%	15%	14%	19%	20%	18%	39%	41%	41%	39%	59%	60%	62%	65%	66%	68%
	Rus	49%	50%	46%	48%	47%	51%	48%	46%	46%	47%	37%	36%	35%	33%	31%	30%
	Egy	39%	34%	38%	32%	32%	30%	11%	11%	11%	13%	2%	3%	2%	1%	2%	1%
	Sau	2%	< 1%	2%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%	< 1%
3-2	Uru	12%	14%	14%	21%	19%	18%	40%	41%	40%	43%	60%	59%	62%	67%	68%	70%
	Rus	45%	42%	45%	43%	47%	48%	48%	46%	45%	43%	35%	36%	34%	30%	29%	28%
	Egy	41%	41%	40%	34%	33%	32%	11%	10%	11%	11%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	< 1%
	Sau	1%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%
2-1	Uru	12%	18%	16%	24%	21%	21%	41%	41%	42%	41%	61%	63%	65%	68%	68%	70%
	Rus	40%	42%	43%	40%	44%	47%	45%	46%	44%	45%	34%	33%	30%	30%	29%	28%
	Egy	47%	38%	38%	33%	33%	30%	12%	11%	11%	12%	3%	2%	3%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	1%	1%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	< 1%
1-0	Uru	11%	16%	18%	22%	22%	23%	41%	42%	40%	43%	63%	66%	65%	68%	69%	71%
	Rus	43%	42%	42%	41%	42%	41%	45%	44%	46%	42%	33%	30%	30%	29%	28%	27%
	Egy	44%	40%	38%	35%	35%	33%	12%	12%	12%	13%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	2%	2%	2%	3%	2%	3%	3%	2%	2%	2%	2%	1%	1%	1%	1%	< 1%
0-0	Uru	22%	21%	20%	25%	25%	25%	50%	52%	52%	52%	72%	73%	75%	76%	76%	77%
	Rus	22%	22%	22%	22%	22%	23%	26%	25%	23%	25%	19%	18%	17%	17%	17%	16%
	Egy	51%	50%	51%	47%	45%	44%	15%	16%	18%	17%	4%	4%	3%	2%	3%	2%
	Sau	6%	7%	7%	7%	8%	7%	9%	7%	7%	6%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%	5%
1-1	Uru	16%	23%	22%	25%	25%	25%	50%	51%	53%	52%	73%	74%	74%	75%	76%	76%
	Rus	20%	22%	24%	23%	23%	23%	27%	26%	24%	26%	18%	18%	18%	17%	17%	18%
	Egy	57%	48%	46%	45%	44%	43%	14%	15%	16%	15%	4%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	6%	7%	8%	7%	8%	8%	8%	8%	7%	7%	5%	5%	5%	5%	4%	5%
2-2	Uru	18%	23%	21%	24%	26%	26%	50%	50%	53%	54%	71%	73%	73%	75%	75%	77%
	Rus	20%	23%	22%	24%	25%	23%	27%	27%	23%	23%	20%	18%	17%	18%	18%	16%
	Egy	57%	48%	48%	45%	42%	45%	14%	15%	16%	16%	3%	3%	4%	2%	3%	1%
	Sau	5%	7%	9%	7%	8%	7%	9%	8%	7%	7%	5%	6%	5%	5%	4%	5%
3-3	Uru	16%	21%	20%	24%	26%	25%	46%	49%	50%	55%	73%	72%	73%	75%	74%	78%
	Rus	28%	28%	28%	20%	20%	25%	30%	29%	28%	23%	17%	18%	20%	17%	19%	15%
	Egy	49%	45%	43%	46%	45%	45%	14%	13%	13%	16%	4%	4%	2%	2%	2%	2%
	Sau	6%	7%	8%	10%	9%	6%	10%	9%	9%	6%	6%	6%	5%	6%	5%	5%
0-1	Uru	15%	20%	20%	25%	25%	25%	46%	48%	46%	48%	74%	75%	76%	78%	80%	82%
	Rus	7%	10%	11%	11%	11%	10%	13%	12%	14%	14%	9%	8%	8%	7%	6%	4%
	Egy	55%	47%	48%	43%	41%	41%	16%	15%	15%	17%	3%	3%	4%	2%	2%	2%
	Sau	23%	23%	22%	21%	23%	24%	25%	24%	25%	21%	14%	14%	13%	14%	12%	12%
1-2	Uru	14%	21%	19%	23%	24%	26%	48%	47%	47%	51%	72%	74%	74%	77%	79%	81%
	Rus	8%	10%	11%	10%	11%	11%	13%	14%	15%	12%	9%	9%	8%	7%	6%	6%
	Egy	56%	50%	46%	45%	42%	40%	14%	14%	15%	15%	3%	3%	4%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	21%	19%	25%	22%	23%	23%	25%	25%	23%	22%	16%	14%	15%	14%	13%	12%
2-3	Uru	10%	18%	19%	21%	24%	24%	48%	47%	48%	48%	72%	73%	74%	77%	78%	79%
	Rus	11%	9%	11%	11%	9%	14%	13%	13%	14%	16%	10%	9%	8%	7%	7%	6%
	Egy	54%	46%	45%	45%	43%	39%	15%	14%	12%	13%	3%	3%	4%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	24%	27%	25%	24%	24%	23%	24%	26%	26%	23%	16%	15%	15%	14%	14%	14%
0-2	Uru	10%	19%	20%	22%	20%	23%	45%	46%	43%	42%	75%	74%	72%	78%	77%	80%
	Rus	8%	10%	7%	9%	9%	8%	11%	12%	12%	13%	5%	5%	6%	5%	5%	4%
	Egy	60%	45%	48%	43%	44%	41%	15%	13%	15%	15%	3%	3%	3%	2%	2%	1%
	Sau	23%	26%	25%	26%	27%	29%	29%	28%	29%	29%	17%	18%	19%	16%	15%	15%
1-3	Uru	12%	17%	21%	20%	21%	23%	45%	47%	48%	49%	73%	71%	73%	76%	78%	78%
	Rus	8%	8%	9%	6%	10%	9%	14%	10%	10%	13%	6%	7%	7%	6%	5%	4%
	Egy	50%	48%	46%	42%	41%	40%	13%	14%	14%	12%	3%	3%	3%	2%	1%	2%
	Sau	30%	27%	25%	31%	29%	28%	28%	29%	28%	26%	18%	20%	18%	16%	16%	16%
0-3	Uru	8%	18%	17%	22%	21%	17%	49%	46%	49%	48%	73%	72%	69%	76%	76%	79%
	Rus	8%	3%	8%	5%	6%	7%	11%	8%	8%	11%	4%	4%	8%	3%	3%	3%
	Egy	59%	45%	42%	41%	42%	45%	11%	15%	14%	19%	3%	3%	3%	1%	2%	1%
	Sau	24%	34%	32%	32%	31%	30%	30%	31%	29%	22%	19%	21%	21%	20%	19%	16%